Final predictions, split into what I think will end up winning, what might be a surprise winner (a.k.a. covering my ass in case I'm wrong) and a film that I believe should have been in the nominee lists (also known by its more popular term: complaining)
Best Picture:
What Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert, Jonathan Wang)
What Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front (Malte Grunert)
What Should Be There: Nope (Jordan Peele, Ian Cooper)
Best Director:
Who Will Win: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Who Could Win: Todd Field (Tár)
Who Should Be There: Jordan Peele (Nope)
Best Actor:
Who Will Win: Austin Butler (Elvis)
Who Could Win: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Who Should Be There: Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans)
Best Actress:
Who Will Win: Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Who Could Win: Cate Blanchett (Tár)]
Who Should Be There: Tang Wei (Decision to Leave)
Best Supporting Actor:
Who Will Win: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everwhere All at Once)
Who Could Win: Frankly, I'd be shocked if Quan didn't win
Who Should Be There: Steven Yeun (Nope)
Best Supporting Actress:
Who Will Win: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Who Could Win: Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Who Should Be There: Nina Hoss (Tár)
Best Original Screenplay:
What Will Win: The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
What Could Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)]
What Should Be There: Nope (Jordan Peele)
Best Adapted Screenplay:
What Will Win: Women Talking (Sarah Polley)
What Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger & Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell)
What Should Be There: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio (Guillermo del Toro, Patrick McHale, and Matthew Robbins)
Best Animated Feature Film:
What Will Win: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio (Guillermo del Toro, Mark Guftaston, Gary Ungar, Alex Bulkley)
What Could Win: See previous choice
What Should Be There: Wendell & Wild (Henry Selick, Jordan Peele)
Best International Feature Film:
What Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
What Could Win: All Quiet's a Best Picture nominee, it's the only logical winner
What Should Be There: Decision to Leave (South Korea)
Best Documentary Feature:
What Could Win: Navalny (Daniel Roher, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller, Shane Boris)
What Could Win: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Laura Poitras, Howard Gertler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin, Yoni Golijov)
What Should Be There: Descendant (Margaret Brown, Kyle Martin, Essie Chambers)
Best Documentary Short Subject:
What Will Win: Stranger at the Gate (Joshua Seftel, Conall Jones)
Best Live Action Short Film:
What Will Win: Le pupille (Alice Rohrwacher, Alfonso Cuarón)
What Could Win: An Irish Goodbye (Tom Berkely, Ross White)
Best Animated Short Film:
What Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse(Charlie Mackesy, Matthew Freud)
What Could Win: either My Year of Dicks (Sara Gunnarsdóttir, Pamela Ribon) or An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It (Lachlan Pendragon), just off their titles
Best Original Score:
What Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertelmann)
What Could Win: Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
What Should Be There: The Batman (Michael Giacchino)
Best Original Song:
What Will Win: "Naatu Naatu" from RRR (M.M. Keeravani, Chandrabose)
What Could Win: "Lift Me Up" from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson)
What Should Be There: "New Body Rhumba" from White Noise (Pat Mahoney, James Murphy, Nancy Whang)
Best Sound:
What Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick (Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor)
What Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front (Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel, Stefan Korte)
What Should Be There: Nope (Johnnie Burn, Jose Antonio Garcia)
Best Production Design:
What Will Win: Babylon (Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino)
What Could Win: The Fabelmans (Rick Carter, Karen O'Hara)
What Should Be There:
Best Cinematography:
What Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front (James Friend)
What Could Win: Elvis (Mandy Walker)
What Should Be There: Nope (Hoyte van Hoytema)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
What Will Win:Elvis (Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, Aldo Signoretti)
What Could Win: The Whale (Adrien Morot, Judy Chin, Anne Marie Bradley)
What Should Be There: Crimes of the Future (Alexandra Anger, Evi Zafiropoulou)
Best Costume Design:
What Will Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth E. Carter)
What Could Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once (Shirley Kurata)
What Should Be There: The Banshees of Inisherin (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
Best Film Editing:
What Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once (Paul Rogers)
What Could Win: Top Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton)
What Should Be There: Avatar: The Way of Water (David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua, Stephen E. Rivkin)
Best Visual Effects:
What Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water (Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett)
What Could Win: Top Gun: Maverick (Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Lipson, Scott R. Fisher)
What Should Be There: Nope (Guillaume Rocheron, Jeremy Robert, Sreejith Venugopalan, Scott R. Fisher)
