soundchaser wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 3:37 amThere's one pick in here that I couldn't give up even if I don't think it's got the momentum. No prizes for guessing which.
Spoiler
100% Condon, admirable
But you’re crazier than Lydia Tár for expecting the SAGs to go 1 for 4
soundchaser wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 3:37 amThere's one pick in here that I couldn't give up even if I don't think it's got the momentum. No prizes for guessing which.
Spoiler
100% Condon, admirable
But you’re crazier than Lydia Tár for expecting the SAGs to go 1 for 4
Spoiler
I just can’t parse the discrepancies between SAG and BAFTA. The acting categories will be the death of me this cycle.
I still have a half-dozen nominees to catch this week before I post my predictions, but in the meantime let’s say that those who are participating in the Oscars game have until 12PM Pacific Time on Sunday to finalize their picks either in this thread or via PM to me.
Apperson wrote:It's the only English language Live-Action Short, which is why I will also be predicting it.
I watched the Rohrwacher on Disney+, where it's only available with a pretty flat English dub (though the singing bits are still in Italian). Did anyone see the film in the theater as part of an Oscar Shorts package, and how was it presented there? Kinda wonder if a dub improves or worsens its odds.
Mandy Walker wins the ASC feature film award, the first woman to do so. The only female cinematographers previously to be nominated for the ASC are also the only two to be Oscar-nominated - Rachel Morrison for Mudbound and Ari Wegner for The Power of the Dog - and the ASC winner has gone on to win the Oscar seven times out of the last ten.
This feels like the most uncertain year in quite some time; I could easily see missing on half of the top eight: Spoiler
Best Picture Will Win:Everything Everywhere All at Once Should Win:TÁR Shoulda Been a Contender:Bones and All — I get why "gory cannibal road trip romance" wasn't a shoo-in for the Academy, but I still maintain that this should have been given more attention
Best Director Will Win: Daniels Should Win: Todd Field Shoulda Been a Contender: Noah Baumbach flexing new muscles with White Noise would have made for a worthy nomination if anyone else had seen or liked it, but I'm actually going to go with another criminally undervalued Netflix offering. Sebastián Lelio's The Wonder represents both a continuation of his thematic interests and a fascinating formal departure, built like nearly all of his films around superb performances by women.
Best Actress Will Win: Cate Blanchett Should Win: Cate Blanchett Shoulda Been a Contender: Florence Pugh in the aforementioned The Wonder would be a classic period piece nomination for a rising star, but for me the only actress who even approached what Blanchett achieves in TÁR is Rebecca Hall in Resurrection.
Best Actor Will Win: Austin Butler Should Win: Colin Farrell Shoulda Been a Contender: Two killers in movies too uncomfortable for the Academy to embrace: Timothée Chalamet gives his purest movie star performance in Bones and All, and Mehdi Bajestani is captivating as a moralizing serial killer in Ali Abassi's Holy Spider
Best Supporting Actress Will Win: Jamie Lee Curtis Should Win: Kerry Condon Shoulda Been a Contender: Nina Hoss in TÁR, Anne Hathaway in Armageddon Time, and Claire Foy, Jessie Buckley, and Rooney Mara from Women Talking could have easily replaced this entire category for me, with Foy being the one I'd vote for today
Best Supporting Actor Will Win: Ke Huy Quan Should Win: Ke Huy Quan, though I'd call both him and Gleeson leads Shoulda Been a Contender: Would have loved to see Jeremy Strong score a spot for Armageddon Time, and Mark Rylance rides a very delicate line between laughable and terrifying in Bones and All
Best Adapted Screenplay Will Win:Women Talking Should Win:Women Talking Shoulda Been a Contender: Noah Baumbach adapted an extremely difficult novel in White Noise, but Emma Donoghue's stellar adaptation of her own novel with Sebastián Lelio and Alice Birch would be my top pick
Best Original Screenplay Will Win:The Banshees of Inisherin Should Win:TÁR Shoulda Been a Contender: Andrew Semans' script for Resurrection takes enormous risks but couches them in chilling dialogue and a gloriously insane ending that deserves recognition
Best Cinematography Will Win:Elvis Should Win:TÁR Shoulda Been a Contender: I'm going to call out Matthew Heineman's Retrograde one of two documentaries from 2022 with award-worthy cinematography
Best Editing Will Win:Everything Everywhere All at Once Should Win:TÁR Shoulda Been a Contender: I'll go with Mátyás Fekete's work in constructing the bizarre rhythms of Peter Strickland's Flux Gourmet
Best Costume Design Will Win:Elvis Should Win:Babylon Shoulda Been a Contender: I quite enjoyed both Bones and All's late-'80s style and The Northman's norse medievalism
Best Makeup Will Win:Elvis Should Win:The Batman Shoulda Been a Contender:Crimes of the Future
Best Production Design Will Win:Elvis Should Win:All Quiet on the Western Front Shoulda Been a Contender:The Wonder's period look is grimily convincing, and TÁR is immaculate
Best Score Will Win:Babylon Should Win:The Banshees of Inisherin Shoulda Been a Contender:The Batman
Best Song Will Win: "Naatu Naatu" Should Win: "Naatu Naatu" Shoulda Been a Contender: "Flat for Sale" from TÁR
Best Sound Will Win:Top Gun: Maverick Should Win:The Batman Shoulda Been a Contender:TÁR
Best VFX Will Win:Avatar: The Way of Water Should Win:Avatar: The Way of Water Shoulda Been a Contender: If we take budget into consideration, the effects in Everything Everywhere All at Once look better than a lot of releases with 10x the money
Best Animated Feature Will Win:Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio Should Win:Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio Shoulda Been a Contender: I didn't see anything I liked more in this category than the nominees
Best Documentary Feature Will Win:Navalny Should Win:All That Breathes Shoulda Been a Contender:Retrograde
Best International Feature Will Win:All Quiet on the Western Front Should Win:EO Shoulda Been a Contender: Goran Stolevski's You Won't Be Alone and Hlynur Pálmason's Godland
Best Animated Short Will Win: "The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse"
Best Documentary Short Will Win: "The Elephant Whisperers"
Hard to say. Both 2016 and 2018 award seasons had uncertain top acting prizes, but the supporting ones were more certain, and at least one in each season was more than the other. I don’t think it’s quite the same but those seem like decent examples
Not sure I agree about 2018: though the result was a huge upset, I think Close was considered a prohibitive favorite in Actress, while I feel like Malek was pretty locked in for a while.
Then I guess it would be 2014 and 2008 seasons as others. Going through the last few decades, I’m surprised at just how many tight best actor and actress races there were. It feels like the supporting categories have been locked in overall for a while, which is why this year is standing out. It’s not rare for the choice to come down to the best performance vs who Hollywood feels they owe, but when there are two people in the latter category, it creates a bit of a mess. So my hope for Condon’s win is sourced less in optimism that more people will pick the best perf, but assuming that the ‘owe’ group will split between the other two
The Razzies gave Worst Picture to Blonde. Oof, I don't know where to begin. The Razzies are meant to be jokes, but their jokes haven't been funny for a while. This is just lame clickbait. But at least they tried to save face for the Worst Actress controversy this year.
PICTURE - Everything Everywhere All At Once
ACTOR - Brendan Fraser
ACTRESS - Cate Blanchett
SUP. ACTRESS - Angela Bassett
SUP. ACTOR - Ke Huy Quan
DIRECTOR - The Daniels
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY - The Banshees of Inisherin
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY - Women Talking
ANIMATED FEATURE - Pinocchio
ANIMATED SHORT - The Boy, the Mole, the Fox, and the Horse
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE - Navalny
DOCUMENTARY SHORT - Elephant Whisperers
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE - All Quiet on the Western Front
LIVE ACTION SHORT - An Irish Goodbye
PRODUCTION DESIGN - Babylon
CINEMATOGRAPHY - All Quiet on the Western Front
SOUND - Top Gun Maverick
COSTUME - Black Panther 2
MAKEUP and HAIR-STYLING - The Whale
FILM EDITING - Everything Everywhere All At Once
VISUAL EFFECTS - Avatar 2
ORIGINAL SCORE - Babylon
ORIGINAL SONG - Naatu Naatu from RRR
