Awards Season 2022

[Pavel]

Damn, if Aftersun can’t get Screenplay and Director here, my Oscar hopes for it are kind of dead (except Mescal, who’s looking strong for the fifth spot). 14 noms for All Quiet out of 15 longlist mentions, wow

[MV88]

Wow, Top Gun and especially The Fabelmans really underperformed here. Only a single nomination for the latter leads me to believe its momentum is fading quickly following its Globe win. Best Picture is really gonna go to EEAAO, isn’t it?

[DarkImbecile]

I think the lack of interest in the very American Top Gun and the empire-bashing RRR is probably more reflective of specific national tastes/resentment than anything definitive; The Fabelmans’ poor performance is much more of a red flag for its prospects, I suspect

[soundchaser]

My ballot

BEST PICTURE
01. All Quiet on the Western Front
02. Avatar: The Way of Water
03. The Banshees of Inisherin
04. Elvis
05. Everything Everywhere All at Once
06. The Fabelmans
07. Tár
08. Top Gun: Maverick
09. The Whale
10. Women Talking

BEST DIRECTOR
01. Daniels
02. Martin McDonagh
03. Sarah Polley
04. Steven Spielberg
05. Todd Field

BEST ACTRESS
01. Cate Blanchett
02. Danielle Deadwyler
03. Michelle Williams
04. Michelle Yeoh
05. Viola Davis

BEST ACTOR
01. Austin Butler
02. Bill Nighy
03. Brendan Fraser
04. Colin Farrell
05. Paul Mescal

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
01. Angela Bassett
02. Jamie Lee Curtis
03. Jessie Buckley
04. Kerry Condon
05. Stephanie Hsu

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
01. Barry Keoghan
02. Brad Pitt
03. Brendan Gleeson
04. Ke Huy Quan
05. Paul Dano

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
01. Aftersun
02. The Banshees of Inisherin
03. Everything Everywhere All At Once
04. The Fabelmans
05. Tár

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
01. All Quiet on the Western Front
02. Glass Onion
03. She Said
04. The Whale
05. Women Talking

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
01. Avatar: The Way of Water
02. Babylon
03. Empire of Light
04. The Fabelmans
05. Top Gun: Maverick

BEST EDITING
01. Avatar: The Way of Water
02. Babylon
03. Everything Everywhere All At Once
04. Elvis
05. Top Gun: Maverick

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
01. All Quiet on the Western Front
02. Argentina, 1985
03. Close
04. Decision to Leave
05. EO

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
01. Guillermo del Toro presents: DarkImbecile’s Pinocchio
02. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
03. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
04. Turning Red
05. Wendell & Wild

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
01. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
02. All That Breathes
03. Descendant
04. Fire of Love
05. Nalvany

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
01. Babylon
02. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
03. Elvis
04. Everything Everywhere All At Once
05. The Woman King

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
01. Babylon
02. The Batman
03. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
04. Elvis
05. The Whale

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
01. All Quiet on the Western Front
02. Avatar: The Way of Water
03. Babylon
04. Elvis
05. The Fabelmans

BEST SOUND
01. All Quiet on the Western Front
02. Avatar: The Way of Water
03. The Batman
04. Elvis
05. Top Gun: Maverick

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
01. Avatar: The Way of Water
02. The Batman
03. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
04. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
05. Top Gun: Maverick

BEST SCORE
01. Babylon
02. The Banshees of Inisherin
03. The Fabelmans
04. Pinocchio
05. Women Talking

BEST SONG
01. Ciao Papa
02. Hold My Hand
03. Lift Me Up
04. Naatu Naatu
05. Stand Up

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
01. Le Pupille
02. An Irish Goodbye
03. The Red Suitcase
04. Warsha
05. Nakam

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
01. The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and The Horse
02. My Year of Dicks
03. New Moon
04. An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
05. Save Ralph

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
01. As Far As They Can Run
02. The Elephant Whisperers
03. The Flagmakers
04. Holding Moses
05. How Do You Measure a Year?

In short: what a mess.

[DarkImbecile]

Quick reminder that we moved up the deadline for submissions and revisions to Sunday at 11:59PM PT, so use your weekend wisely*

*Opinions on whether pondering Oscar nomination odds is a wise use of time may vary

[Computer Raheem]

COMPUTER RAHEEM'S OSCARS PREDICTIONS BALLOT OF 2023!!!!

As stated previously, I plan on both giving my predictions on what will be nominated come January 24th, as well as films I personally wish to be nominated (shortlisted or not). I am also ranking the predictions in terms of their likeliness of actually winning, the top one being the most likely and the bottom the least. I await the fun that will come when the Academy does its thing and irritates us all

EDITED ON 1-22-23: Added some films and replaced an actor in the "What Should Be Nominated" section, shuffled and/or changed some rankings, but mostly minor grammar edits and punctuation

The Predictions Ballot

BEST PICTURE
01. Everything Everywhere All At Once (Daniel Kwan, Mike Larocca, Jonathan Wang, Daniel Scheinert)
02. The Fabelmans (Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner, Kristie Macosko Krieger)
03. The Banshees of Inisherin (Graham Broadbant, Peter Czernin, Martin McDonagh)
04. Top Gun: Maverick (Jerry Bruckheimer, Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison)
05. Tár (Todd Field, Scott Lambert, Alexandra Milchan)
06. Avatar: The Way of Water (James Cameron, Jon Landau)
07. Elvis (Baz Luhrmann, Gail Berman, Catherine Martin, Patrick McCormick, Schuyler Weiss)
08. All Quiet On The Western Front (Daniel Marc Dreifuss, Malte Grunert)
09. RRR (D.V.V. Danayya)
10. Women Talking (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Frances McDormand)
What should be nominated: Nope (Jordan Peele, Ian Cooper), Aftersun (Adele Romanski, Amy Jackson, Barry Jenkins, Mark Ceryak), The Northman (Arnon Milchan, Lars Knudsen, Mark Huffum, Robert Eggers, Alexander Skarsgard), Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio (Guillermo del Toro, Lisa Henson, Gary Ungar, Alex Buckley, Corey Campodonico), Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook)

BEST DIRECTOR
01. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
02. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
03. Todd Field (Tár)
04. S.S. Rajamouli (RRR)
05. Sarah Polley (Women Talking)
Who should be nominated: Jordan Peele (Nope), Robert Eggers (The Northman), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave)

BEST ACTRESS
01. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
02. Cate Blanchett (Tár)
03. Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
04. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
05. Ana De Armas (Blonde)
Who should be nominated: honestly, this year's Best Actress race has been uniformly excellent, but Tang Wei for Decision to Leave or Aubrey Plaza for Emily The Criminal would be awesome left-field choices

BEST ACTOR
01. Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
02. Austin Butler (Elvis)
03. Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
04. Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans)
05. Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
Who should be nominated: Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Daniel Kaluyya (Nope)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
01. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
02. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
03. Hong Chau (The Whale)
04. Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
05. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Who should be nominated: Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Keke Palmer (Nope), Nina Hoss (Tár)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
01. Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
02. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
03. Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
04. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
05. Tom Hanks (Elvis)
Who should be nominated: James Hong (Everything Everywhere All At Once), Anthony Hopkins (Armageddon Time), Brandon Perea (Nope)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
01. The Banshees of Inisherin (written by Martin McDonagh)
02. The Fabelmans (written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner)
03. Everything Everywhere All At Once (written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)
04. Tár (written by Todd Field)
05. Aftersun (written by Charlotte Wells)
What should be nominated: Nope (written by Jordan Peele), The Northman (written by Sjón & Robert Eggers), Decision to Leave (written by Park Chan-wook & Seo-kyeong Jeung)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
01. Women Talking (screenplay by Sarah Polley, based on novel by Miriam Toews)
02. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (written by Rian Johnson, based on characters created by Johnson)
03. Top Gun: Maverick (written by Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie, story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks, based on characters created by Jim Cash & Jack Epps, Jr.)
04. All Quiet On The Western Front (written by Edward Berger & Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell, based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque)
05. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio (screenplay by Guillermo del Toro and Patrick McHale, story by del Toro and Matthew Robbins, based on the novel by Carlo Collodi and illustrations by Gris Grimly)
What should be nominated: White Noise (written for the screen by Noah Baumbach, based on the novel by Don DeLilio), Bones and All (screenplay by David Kajganich, based on the novel by Camille DeAngelis)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
01. Top Gun: Maverick (Claudio Miranda, a.s.c.)
02. The Fabelmans (Janusz Kaminski)
03. Avatar: The Way of Water (Russell Carpenter, a.s.c.)
04. Tár (Florian Hoffmeister, b.s.c.)
05. Empire of Light (Roger Deakins, a.s.c., b.s.c.)
What should be nominated: Nope (Hoyte van Hoytema, a.s.c., f.s.f., n.s.c.), The Batman (Greig Fraser, a.s.c., a.c.s.), The Northman (Jarin Blaschke, a.s.c.), Athena (Matias Boucard), Decision to Leave (Kim Ji-yong) - in all fairness, though, it was a pretty good year for cinematography looking back

BEST EDITING
01. Top Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton)
02. Everything Everywhere All At Once (Paul Rogers)
03. Elvis (Jonathan Redmond, Matt Villa)
04. Avatar: The Way of Water (David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua, Stephen E. Rivkin)
05. Tár (Monika Willi)
What should be nominated: The Fabelmans (Michael Kahn, Sarah Bronsor), RRR (A. Sreekar Prasad)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
01. All Quiet On The Western Front (Germany)
02. Decision to Leave (South Korea)
03. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Mexico)
04. EO (Poland)
05. Saint Omer (France)
What should be nominated: Holy Spider (Denmark), The Quiet Girl (Ireland), Return to Seoul (Cambodia)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
01. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio (Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson)
02. Puss In Boots: The Last Wish (Joel Crawford, Mark Swift)
03. Marcel The Snail With Shoes On (Dean Feischer-Camp)
04. Turning Red (Domee Shi, Lindsay Collins)
05. Wendell & Wild (Henry Selick, Jordan Peele)
What should be nominated: Honestly, I'm fine with all these choices - it's basically del Toro's award at this point

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
01. Navalny (Daniel Roher)
02. All That Breathes (Shaunak Sen)
03. All The Beauty and The Bloodshed (Laura Poitras)
04. Descendent (Margaret Brown)
05. Moonage Daydream (Brett Morgan)
What should be nominated: I don't know - I haven't seen any of these films 8-[

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
01. Elvis (Catherine Martin)
02. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth E. Carter)
03. Everything Everywhere All At Once (Shirley Kurata)
04. Babylon (Mary Zophres)
05. The Fabelmans (Rick Carter)
What should be nominated: The Banshees of Inisherin (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
01. Elvis (Shane Thomas, Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, Louise Coulston)
02. The Whale (Adrian Morot, Judy Chin, Anne Marie Bradley)
03. The Batman (Naomi Dunne, Mike Marino, Zoe Tahir)
04. Everything Everywhere All At Once (Michelle Chung, Anissa Salazar)
05. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Joel Harlow)
What should be nominated: Crimes of the Future (Alexandra Anger, Evi Zafiropoulou)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
01. Elvis (Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy)
02. Everything Everywhere All At Once (Jason Isvarday)
03. Babylon (Florencia Martin)
04. The Fabelmans (Rick Carter)
05. Avatar: The Way of Water (Dylan Cole, Ben Procter)
What should be nominated: The Northman (Craig Lathrop), The Batman (James Chinlund)

BEST SOUND
01. Top Gun: Maverick (Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor)
02. All Quiet On The Western Front (Lars Ginzel, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Viktor Prasil)
03. Avatar: The Way of Water (Gwen Whittle, Gary Summers, Mike Hedges, Chris Boyes, Tony Johnson, Julian Howarth)
04. The Batman (Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson)
05. Moonage Daydream (Paul Massey, David Giammarco, John Warhurst, Nina Harstone)
What should be nominated: Nope (Johnnie Burn, Jose Antonio Garcia), Tár (Roland Winke, Stephen Griffiths, Deb Adair, Steve Single, Andy Shelley), The Northman (James Harrison, Steve Little, Paul Cotterell, Mark Taylor)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
01. Avatar: The Way of Water (Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindom, Daniel Barrett)
02. Top Gun: Maverick (Ryan Tudhope, Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson)
03. Nope (Guillaume Rocheron, Jeremy Robert, Sreejith Venugopalan, Scott R. Fisher)
04. The Batman (Don Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dominic Tuohy)
05. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Hanzhi Tang, Dan Sudick)
What should be nominated: Everything Everywhere All At Once (Zak Stoltz, Ethan Feldbau, Benjamin Brewer, Jeff Desom), RRR (V Srinivas Mohan)

BEST SCORE
01. Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
02. The Fabelmans (John Williams)
03. Avatar: The Way of Water (Simon Franglen)
04. Women Talking (Hildur Guðnadottir)
05. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ludwig Goranssön)
What should be nominated: Everything Everywhere All At Once (Son Lux), The Batman (Michael Giacchino), Nope (Michael Abels)

BEST SONG
01. "Naatu Naatu" from RRR (M.M. Keeravani, Kala Bhairava, & Rahul Sipligunj)
02. "Lift Me Up" from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Rihanna, Tems, Ludwig Gorranssön, and Ryan Coogler)
03. "Hold My Hand" from Top Gun: Maverick (Lady Gaga & BloodPop)
04. "Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)" from Avatar: The Way of Water (The Weeknd, Simon Franglen, & Swedish House Mafia)
05. "Applause" from Tell It Like A Woman (Diane Warren)
What should be nominated: "New Body Rhumba" from White Noise (LCD Soundsystem) - though honestly, I'd want literally anything in place of whatever trite ballad Diane Warren wrote this year (no disrespect to her, just don't like these songs - they're the sonic equivalent of Oscar bait)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
01. Le pupille (Alice Rohrwacher)
02. An Irish Goodbye (Tom Berkley, Ross White)
03. The Red Suitcase (Cyrus Neshvad)
04. Sideral (Carlos Segundo)
05. Warsha (Dania Bdeir)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
01. The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and The Horse (Charlie Mackesy, Peter Baynton)
02. Save Ralph (Spencer Susser)
03. New Moon (Jérémie Balais, Raul Domingo, Jeffig Le Bars)
04. The Flying Sailor (Amanda Forbis, Wendy Tilby)
05. Ice Merchant (Joao Gonzalez)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
01. The Flagmakers (Sharon Liese, Cynthia Wade)
02. As Far As They Can Run (Tanaz Eshaghian)
03. Nuisance Bear (Jack Weisman and Gabriela Osio Vanden)
04. 38 at the Garden (Frank Chi)
05. The Martha Mitchell Effect (Anne Alvergue)

[Pavel]

I’ve been delaying posting these as I’ve been constantly changing them, but I suppose it’s time.
Ok, FINAL UPDATE JUST BEFORE THE DEADLINE

Spoiler

BEST PICTURE
01. Everything Everywhere All at Once
02. The Banshees of Inisherin
03. The Fabelmans
04. Top Gun: Maverick
05. Elvis
06. TÁR
07. All Quiet on the Western Front
08. Avatar: The Way of Water
09. The Whale
10 Triangle of Sadness

BEST DIRECTOR
01. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert — EEAAO
02. Steven Spielberg — The Fabelmans
03. Todd Field — TÁR
04. Martin McDonagh — The Banshees of Inisherin
05. Edward Berger — All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ACTRESS
01. Cate Blanchett — TÁR
02. Michelle Yeoh — EEAAO
03. Viola Davis — The Woman King
04. Ana de Armas — Blonde
05. Danielle Deadwyler — Till

BEST ACTOR
01. Brendan Fraser — The Whale
02. Austin Butler — Elvis
03. Colin Farrell — The Banshees of Inisherin
04. Bill Nighy — Living
05. Paul Mescal — Aftersun

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
01. Angela Bassett — Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
02. Kerry Condon — The Banshees of Inisherin
03. Jamie Lee Curtis — EEAAO
04. Hong Chau — The Whale
05. Dolly de Leon — Triangle of Sadness

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
01. Ke Huy Quan — EEAAO
02. Brendan Gleeson — The Banshees of Inisherin
03. Barry Keoghan — The Banshees of Inisherin
04. Paul Dano — The Fabelmans
05. Eddie Redmayne — The Good Nurse

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
01. Everything Everywhere All at Once
02. The Banshees of Inisherin
03. The Fabelmans
04. TÁR
05. Triangle of Sadness

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
01. The Whale
02. Glass Onion
03. Living
04. Women Talking
05. All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
01. Top Gun: Maverick
02. All Quiet on the Western Front
03. Elvis
04. The Batman
05. Empire of Light

BEST EDITING
01. Top Gun: Maverick
02. Everything Everywhere All at Once
03. Elvis
04. The Banshees of Inisherin
04. All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
01. All Quiet on the Western Front
02. Decision to Leave
03. Argentina, 1985
04. Close
05. The Quiet Girl

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
01. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
02. Turning Red
03. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
04. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
05. My Father’s Dragon

BEST DOCUMENTARY
01. All That Breathes
02. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
03. Fire of Love
04. Moonage Daydream
05. Bad Axe

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
01. Elvis
02. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
03. Babylon
04. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
05. The Woman King

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
01. Elvis
02. The Batman
03. The Whale
04. Amsterdam
05. Blonde

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
01. Babylon
02. Elvis
03. Avatar: The Way of Water
04. All Quiet on the Western Front
05. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST SOUND
01. Top Gun: Maverick
02. All Quiet on the Western Front
03. Avatar: The Way of Water
04. Elvis
05. The Batman

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
01. Avatar: The Way of Water
02. Top Gun: Maverick
03. The Batman
04. All Quiet on the Western Front
05. Thirteen Lives

BEST SCORE
01. Babylon
02. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
03. The Banshees of Inisherin
04. Women Talking
05. All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST SONG
01. Naatu Naatu — RRR
02. Hold My Hand — Top Gun: Maverick
03. Lift Me Up — Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
04. Ciao, Papa — Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
05. Applause — Tell It Like a Woman

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
01. Le Pupille
02. An Irish Goodbye
03. The Red Suitcase
04. Ivalu
05. Warsha

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
01. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
02. New Moon
03. Save Ralph
04. An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
05. The Ice Merchants

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
01. The Flagmakers
02. Nuisance Bear
03. The Elephant Whisperers
04. How Do You Measure a Year?
05. The Martha Mitchell Effect

[therewillbeblus]

My ballot

Spoiler

BEST PICTURE
01.All Quiet on the Western Front
02.Avatar 2
03.The Banshees of Inisherin
04.Elvis
05.Everything Everywhere All At Once
06.The Fabelmans
07.Tár
08.Top Gun: Maverick
09.The Whale
10.Women Talking

BEST DIRECTOR
01.Edward Berger
02.Daniels
03.Todd Field
04.Martin McDonagh
05.Steven Spielberg

BEST ACTRESS
01.Cate Blanchett
02.Ana de Armas
03.Danielle Deadwyler
04.Michelle Williams
05.Michelle Yeoh

BEST ACTOR
01.Austin Butler
02.Colin Farrell
03.Brendan Fraser
04.Bill Nighy
05.Paul Mescal

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
01.Angela Bassett
02.Jessie Buckley
03.Kerry Condon
04.Jamie Lee Curtis
05.Dolly de Leon

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
01.Ke Huy Quan
02.Paul Dano
03.Brendan Gleeson
04.Barry Keoghan
05.Brad Pitt

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
01.The Banshees of Inisherin
02.Everything Everywhere All At Once
03.The Fabelmans
04.Tar
05.Triangle of Sadness

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
01.All Quiet on the Western Front
02.Glass Onion
03.She Said
04.The Whale (ugh)
05.Women Talking

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
01.All Quiet on the Western Front
02.Avatar: The Way of Water
03.Babylon
04.The Fabelmans
05.Top Gun: Maverick

BEST EDITING
01.Avatar 2
02.Elvis
03.Everything Everywhere All at Once
04.The Fabelmans
05.Top Gun: Maverick

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
01.All Quiet on the W F
02.Argentina, 1985
03.Close
04.Decision to Leave
05.EO

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
01.GDT's Pinnacle-o
02.Marcel con Shoes
03.Puss in Boots: Uno Wish Mas
04.Turning Red
05.Wendell and Wild

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
01.All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
02.All that Breathes
03.Fire of Love
04.Moonage Daydream
05.Navalny

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
01.Babylon
02.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
03.Elvis
04.Everything Everywhere All at Once
05.The Woman King

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
01.All Quiet on the Western Front
02.The Batman
03.Black Panther: Wakanda 4eva
04.Elvis
05.The Whale

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
01.Avatar: The Way of the Water
02.Babylon
03.Black Panther: Wakanda 4eva
04.Elvis
05.The Fabelmans

BEST SOUND
01.All Loud on the Western Front
02.Avatar: The Way of Water
03.Elvis
04.Everything Everywhere All at Once
05.Top Gun: Maverick

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
01.All Quiet
02.Avatar: Way of wawa
03.The Batman
04.Black Panther 2 4eva
05.Top Mav

BEST SCORE
01.Banshees of Inisherin
02.Babylon
03.Fabes
04.Guillermo del Toro's Rendition of the Italian Novel, Not The Disney Movie (We Will Ensure That We Use These Two Hours Wisely So That You Please Understand This Intention), of Pinocchio
05.Women Talking

BEST SONG
01."Lift Me Up"- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
02."Ciao Papa"-Guillermo del Toro's Rendition of the Italian Novel, Not The Disney Movie (We Will Ensure That We Use These Two Hours Wisely So That You Please Understand This Intention), of Pinocchio
03."Naatu Naatu"- RRR
04."Applause"- Tell It Like a Woman
05."Hold My Hand"- Top Gun: Maverick

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
01.An Irish Goodbye
02.Nakam
03.Le Pupille
04.The Red Suitcase
05.Warsha

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
01.The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
02.The Flying Sailor
03.New Moon
04.An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
05.Save Ralph

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
01.38 at the Garden
02.The Elephant Whisperers
03.The Flagmakers
04.Holding Moses
05.How Do You Measure a Year?

[lacritfan]

Spoiler

Picture
Aftersun
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
RRR
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick

Director
Daniels
Todd Field
Martin McDonagh
Steven Spielberg
Charlotte Wells

Actor
Austin Butler
Colin Farrell
Brendan Fraser
Paul Mescal
Bill Nighy

Actress
Cate Blanchett
Viola Davis
Danielle Deadwyler
Ana de Armas
Michelle Yeoh

Sup Actor
Brendan Gleeson
Tom Hanks
Barry Keoghan
Brad Pitt
Ke Huy Quan

Sup Actress
Angela Bassett
Hong Chau
Kerry Condon
Stephanie Hsu
Michelle Williams

Adapted Screenplay
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Living
The Whale
Women Talking

Orig Screenplay
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár

Cinematography
Babylon
Elvis
Empire of Light
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick

Production Design
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once

Editing
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick

Costume
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Woman King

Score
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Women Talking

Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick

Makeup
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Crimes of the Future
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Whale

Visual Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Top Gun: Maverick

Animated
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Wendell & Wild

Doc
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Bad Axe
Fire of Love
Retrograde

Internatinal
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Decision to Leave
EO (Poland)
The Quiet Girl

Doc Short
38 at the Garden
The Flagmakers
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Nuisance Bear
Stranger at the Gate

Live Action Short
All in Favor
Almost Home
An Irish Goodbye
The Lone Wolf
The Red Suitcase

Animated Short
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
It’s Nice in Here
More Than I Want to Remember
New Moon
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

[colinr0380]

In terms of the BAFTAs, my guess is that Bill Nighy may be the dark horse to win for best actor for Living (the remake of Akira Kurosawa's Ikiru), since Brendan Gleeson will probably be the pick as supporting actor for Banshees of Inisherin. On shakier grounds, I would also guess that Everything Everywhere will get Best Film and Banshees for Best 'British' Film (although I would not be surprised if Banshees takes both, unless they don't want a single film to monopolise both categories that way). Aftersun is probably a shoe-in for Best British Debut Film. Of course Costumes, Make Up and Sound Design to Elvis. Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh may have to have a cage fight match to see who comes away with Best Actress.

The Boy, The Fox, His Wife and Her Lover will probably be the Best Animated Short pick, since that was the BBC's big Christmas animation.

I don't know how it affects its eligibility for nomination in the BAFTAs but The Fablemans has not been released in the cinema at the UK as yet (it will be this coming Friday, on the 27th January), so maybe that disqualifies it (EDIT: Oh, I see it did get noms in other categories so, uh, I guess the Academy just didn't like it?). The absence of Top Gun: Maverick outside of the technical awards is a bit head scratching (especially as Everything Everywhere will be strong competition in that area, along with All Quiet on the Western Front depending on how big and rumbly its explosions are), though it may turn up as the pick that was nominated by the public rather than the academy. And all this love for yet another All Quiet On The Western Front remake suggests to me that many people still have not experienced the ultimate humanistic World War One film, Raymond Bernard's Wooden Crosses, yet.

However no noms for Crimes of the Future or David Cronenberg means these awards are meaningless! [-(

[Calvin]

I had been complaining about the total absence of Terence Davies' Benediction from the BAFTA nominations, but I've now discovered that it was actually eligible for last year's awards (I'm not entirely sure why as it wasn't released theatrically until May) and they ignored it then. I find it incredible that BAFTA have only ever nominated him once - for The House of Mirth. Perhaps they'll eventually give him the honorary award that they gave Peter Greenaway a few years ago.

[MV88]

However no noms for Crimes of the Future or David Cronenberg means these awards are meaningless! [-(

I was pleasantly surprised it even made the shortlist for the Makeup/Hairstyling category at the Oscars, and while it’s probably unlikely to make it into the actual nomination lineup, I’ll take it as a victory if it does (I’d nominate for a lot more than that, personally).

Speaking of which, it’s actually insane that The Fly remains the only Cronenberg film to ever score a nomination for its makeup.

[willoneill]

I’m not surprised at all by the lack of Cronenberg noms over the years; generally speaking, with exceptions every few years, Canadian films do not garner a lot of Oscar attention, compared to say British cinema. My theory is that while, like the British, there are a lot of Canadians in the Academy, unlike the British most of them never work anymore in the Canadian film industry.

[beamish14]

I’m not surprised at all by the lack of Cronenberg noms over the years; generally speaking, with exceptions every few years, Canadian films do not garner a lot of Oscar attention, compared to say British cinema. My theory is that while, like the British, there are a lot of Canadians in the Academy, unlike the British most of them never work anymore in the Canadian film industry.

Beyond the NFB’s animated shorts, I think you’re completely right. Beyond Norman Jewison, who founded the Canadian Film Centre, most of them seldom give back to future generations of Canadian filmmakers once they’ve gone to Hollywood.

[Toland's Mitchell]

Spoiler

Predictions:

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tar
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
Women Talking

Best Director

Steven Spielberg
The Daniels
Martin McDonagh
Todd Field
James Cameron

Best Actor

Austin Butler
Colin Farrell
Brendan Fraser
Tom Hanks
Bill Nighy

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett
Viola Davis
Ana de Armas
Danielle Deadwyler
Michelle Yeoh

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett
Hong Chau
Kerry Condon
Stephanie Hsu
Michell Williams

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Dano
Brendan Gleeson
Judd Hirsch
Barry Keoghan
Ke Huy Quan

Best Original Screenplay

Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár

Best Adapted Screenplay

Glass Onion
Living
She Said
The Whale
Women Talking

Best Animated Feature

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Turning Red
Puss in Boots
My Father's Dragon

Best International Film

All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina 1985
Decision to Leave
Close
EO

Best Documentary

All That Breathes
All the Beauty and Bloodshed
Descendant
Fire of Love
Navalny

Best Documentary Short

38 at the Garden
The Nuisance Bear
The Martha Mitchell Effect
How do You Measure a Year?
Flagmakers

Best Live Action Short

Le Pupille
An Irish Goodbye
Warsha
Ivalu
The Red Suitcase

Best Animated Short

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchant
My Year of Dicks
New Moon

Best Original Score

Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Women Talking

Best Original Song

Naatu Naatu
Lift Me Up
Ciao Papa
Hold My Hand
Applause

Best Makeup and Hair-styling

All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Blonde
Elvis
The Whale

Best Costume Design

Babylon
Black Panther
Elvis
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
The Woman King

Best Cinematography

The Batman
Elvis
Empire of Light
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick

Best Production Design

Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Black Panther
Elvis
The Fabelmans

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther
Dr. Strange
Top Gun: Maverick

Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick

Best Film Editing

Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick

[therewillbeblus]

Since Michelle Williams is campaigning for Best Actress, I don’t think a Sup Actress nomination is possible

[DarkImbecile]

It is possible, it’s just unlikely

[MV88]

There are examples of an actor being campaigned in the supporting category but the Academy deciding to nominate them in the lead category instead (Kate Winslet in The Reader, Keisha Castle-Hughes in Whale Rider), but does anyone know if the reverse has ever happened? I mean, I know there’s a first time for everything, but the lack of precedence is what prevented me from predicting Michelle Williams in the supporting category even though I’ve noticed others doing it.

I will say that if it does happen, that would probably bring Angela Bassett’s momentum to a screeching halt.

[Pavel]

It happed in 2020 when Lakeith Stanfield was campaigned in Lead but shockingly got nominated in Supporting. I think that’s the precedent most cite when they predict Williams to get a Supp Actress nom

[therewillbeblus]

Razzie noms, Blonde leads with eight

[soundchaser]

Razzie noms, Blonde leads with eight

I haven’t seen Blonde, but these definitely get stupider every year.

[DarkImbecile]

Just regressive attention-seeking behavior, at this point

[Never Cursed]

What even is the joke logic behind calling Blonde a remake, rip-off, or sequel? (Though I think the other slights directed at its/Dominik's way are the equal responsibility of film twitter in general)

[soundchaser]

What even is the joke logic behind calling Blonde a remake, rip-off, or sequel? (Though I think the other slights directed at its/Dominik's way are the equal responsibility of film twitter in general)

Presumably because it’s based on the book by the same title. I guess that makes it a “rip-off”? Seems like they just wanted to get in any many slots as possible for the *hot goss*

[therewillbeblus]

Razzie noms, Blonde leads with eight

I haven’t seen Blonde, but these definitely get stupider every year.

The Worst Screen Couple category isn't even remotely clever, sounds like a couple of third graders came up with the nominations. I thought nominating Giuliani for worst supporting actor a couple years ago was kinda funny, but they're really going to space now