Awards Season 2022

[Apperson]

Remember that The Academy did go back to a flat 10 Best Picture nominees last year. That how Nightmare Alley got nominated.

[therewillbeblus]

Oh I completely forgot about that, thanks for the reminder- I was actually going to predict them going to their lowest number yet since the induction of the 5-10 elasticity. This is one of the worst slates in memory already, really excited to see what gets added to the mix

[Pavel]

Really hoping Aftersun can pull off a Drive My Car and get in with next-to-no precursor love (except BAFTA) based solely on some voters’ passion. I think Original Screenplay and especially Mescal feel very possible, so it seems like the big prize is within reach.

[therewillbeblus]

Yeah maybe Mescal, I just don't think the film has received nearly the kind of traction that Drive My Car did to be a contender across as many categories. I was wondering if RRR or All Quiet on the Western Front would do the same, but I don't get the impression either of them have either

[Pavel]

The strong performance in both the BAFTA and Oscar shortlists makes me think All Quiet could get in off of tech categories alone. RRR seemed possible to me for a while as well, but that ship has probably sailed

[DarkImbecile]

All the ballots I've received thus far have been via PM, which makes sense strategically given the value of long shot picks; in order to maintain my heretofore unblemished ethical reputation, I'm going to post my own picks below to negate any subconscious potential advantage I might glean from compiling other people's ballots. If anyone else does post their ballots in this thread, please include an "UPDATED" marker like the one below so I can easily see if I need to change your entries in my tracker (it would also be helpful to change the color or otherwise indicate which picks have changed, if possible).

Finally, for the record, I'm assuming anyone who nominated "Pinocchio" in any category instead of Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio is referring to the 2022 Robert Zemeckis release, and these picks unfortunately cannot be updated.

UPDATED 01/22/23

Spoiler

BEST PICTURE
01. Avatar: The Way of Water
02. All Quiet on the Western Front
03. The Banshees of Inisherin
04. Elvis
05. Everything Everywhere All at Once
06. The Fabelmans
07. TÁR
08. Top Gun: Maverick
09. The Whale
10. Women Talking

BEST DIRECTOR
01. Daniels
02. Todd Field
03. Martin McDonagh
04. Sarah Polley
05. Steven Spielberg

BEST ACTRESS
01. Cate Blanchett
02. Viola Davis
03. Danielle Deadwyler
04. Michelle Williams
05. Michelle Yeoh

BEST ACTOR
01. Austin Butler
02. Tom Cruise
03. Colin Farrell
04. Brendan Fraser
05. Bill Nighy

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
01. Jessie Buckley
02. Hong Chau
03. Kerry Condon
04. Jamie Lee Curtis
05. Stephanie Hsu

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
01. Paul Dano
02. Brendan Gleeson
03. Barry Keohgan
04. Ke Huy Quan
05. Judd Hirsch

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
01. Triangle of Sadness
02. The Banshees of Inisherin
03. Everything Everywhere All at Once
04. The Fabelmans
05. TÁR

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
01. All Quiet on the Western Front
02. Glass Onion
03. Top Gun: Maverick
04. The Whale
05. Women Talking

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
01. All Quiet on the Western Front
02. Avatar: The Way of Water
03. The Batman
04. The Fabelmans
05. Top Gun: Maverick

BEST EDITING
01. The Banshees of Inisherin
02. Elvis
03. Everything Everywhere All at Once
04. The Fabelmans
05. Top Gun: Maverick

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
01. All Quiet on the Western Front
02. Argentina, 1985
03. Close
04. Decision to Leave
05. Holy Spider

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
01. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
02. Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
03. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
04. Turning Red
05. Wendell & Wild

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
01. All That Breathes
02. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
03. Fire of Love
04. Moonage Daydream
05. Retrograde

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
01. Babylon
02. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
03. Corsage
04. Elvis
05. The Woman King

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
01. All Quiet on the Western Front
02. Babylon
03. The Batman
04. Elvis
05. The Whale

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
01. Avatar: The Way of Water
02. Babylon
03. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
04. Elvis
05. All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST SOUND
01. All Quiet on the Western Front
02. Avatar: The Way of Water
03. The Batman
04. Elvis
05. Top Gun: Maverick

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
01. All Quiet on the Western Front
02. Avatar: The Way of Water
03. The Batman
04. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
05. Top Gun: Maverick

BEST SCORE
01. Babylon
02. The Banshees of Inisherin
03. The Fabelmans
04. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
05. Women Talking

BEST SONG
01. "Carolina"
02. "Ciao Papa"
03. "Hold My Hand"
04. "Lift Me Up"
05. "Naatu Naatu"

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
01. An Irish Goodbye
02. Nakam
03. Le Pupille
04. Plastic Killer
05. The Red Suitcase

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
01. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
02. My Year of Dicks
03. New Moon
04. An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
05. Save Ralph

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
01. 38 at the Garden
02. The Elephant Whisperers
03. The Flagmakers
04. Holding Moses
05. Nuisance Bear

[swo17]

My ballot:

UPDATED 01/18/23

Spoiler

BEST PICTURE
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Bones and All
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
The Whale

BEST DIRECTOR
James Cameron
Daniels
Todd Field
Martin McDonagh
Steven Spielberg

BEST ACTRESS
Ana de Armas
Cate Blanchett
Viola Davis
Charlbi Dean
Michelle Yeoh

BEST ACTOR
Austin Butler
Colin Farrell
Brendan Fraser
Hugh Jackman
Bill Nighy

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett
Kerry Condon
Jamie Lee Curtis
Dolly De Leon
Janelle Monae

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Paul Dano
Brendan Gleeson
Woody Harrelson
Barry Keohgan
Ke Huy Quan

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
Triangle of Sadness

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Bones and All
Glass Onion
She Said
The Whale
Women Talking

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST EDITING
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Decision to Leave
EO
Joyland

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Bad Guys
Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Turning Red
Wendell & Wild

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
Moonage Daydream
Navalny

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Fabelmans
The Woman King

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Blonde
Elvis
The Whale

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion

BEST SOUND
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avatar: The Way of Water
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Nope
Top Gun: Maverick

BEST SCORE
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Fabelmans
Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

BEST SONG
"Ciao Papa"
"Hold My Hand"
"Lift Me Up"
"Stand Up"
"You Give Me Strength"

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
The Treatment
Warsha

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
It's Nice in Here
New Moon
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
Save Ralph

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
38 at the Garden
The Elephant Whisperers
The Flagmakers
How Do You Measure a Year?
Nuisance Bear

[therewillbeblus]

Damn, mine is way too similar. Must sub in Nope for all categories

[Never Cursed]

Finally, for the record, I'm assuming anyone who nominated "Pinocchio" in any category instead of Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio is referring to the 2022 Robert Zemeckis release, and these picks unfortunately cannot be updated.

Please replace all instances of Pinocchio on my ballot with Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

[DarkImbecile]

Please replace all instances of Pinocchio on my ballot with Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

Finally, for the record, I'm assuming anyone who nominated "Pinocchio" in any category instead of Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio is referring to the 2022 Robert Zemeckis release, and these picks unfortunately cannot be updated.

Please direct all queries regarding this matter to swo17

[swo17]

:^o

[bottlesofsmoke]

My ballot! (Updated 1/21)

Spoiler

BEST PICTURE
01. Avatar: The Way of Water
02. Top Gun: Maverick
03. Everything Everywhere All At Once
04. Tar
05. The Fablemans
06. Aftersun
07. The Banshees of Inisherin
08. All Quiet on the Western Front
09. Elvis
10. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST DIRECTOR
01. Todd Field (Tar)
02. Steven Spielberg (The Fablemans)
03. Charlotte Wells (Aftersun)
04. Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Bardo)
05. James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water)

BEST ACTRESS
01. Cate Blanchet (Tar)
02. Margot Robbie (Babylon)
03. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
04. Viola Davis (The Woman King)
05. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)

BEST ACTOR
01. Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
02. Austin Butler (Elvis)
03. Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
04. Bill Nighy (Living)
05. Paul Mescal (Aftersun)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
01. Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
02. Nina Hoss (Tar)
03. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
04. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
05. Janelle Monae (Glass Onion)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
01. Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
02. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
03. Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
04. Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
05. Brad Pitt (Babylon)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
01. The Banshees of Inisherin
02. Nope
03. Armageddon Time
04. Tar
05. Triangle of Sadness

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
01. Glass Onion
02. Living
03. All Quiet on the Western Front
04. Women Talking
05. She Said

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
01. Top Gun: Maverick
02. Avatar: The Way of Water
03. All Quiet on the Western Front
04. Everything Everywhere All at Once
05. Empire of Light

BEST EDITING
01. Top Gun: Maverick
02. The Fabelmans
03. Tar
04. Everything Everywhere All at Once
05. All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
01. EO
02. Bardo
03. All Quiet on the Western Front
04. Decision to Leave
05. Saint Omer

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
01. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
02. Turning Red
03. Inu-Oh
04. Puss in Boots
05. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
01. Retrograde
02. All the Beauty and Bloodshed
03. All That Leaves
04. Fire of Love
05. Moonage Daydream

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
01. Babylon
02. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
03. Elvis
04. The Woman King
05. The Fabelmans

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
01. Babylon
02. Blonde
03. The Whale
04. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
05. Crimes of the Future

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
01. Avatar: The Way of Water
02. Elvis
03. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
04. Babylon
05. The Batman

BEST SOUND
01. Avatar: The Way of Water
02. Top Gun: Maverick
03. Elvis
04. Everything Everywhere All at Once
05. All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
01. Avatar: The Way of Water
02. Top Gun: Maverick
03. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
04. Nope
05. Thirteen Lives

BEST SCORE
01. Avatar: The Way of Water
02. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
03. Babylon
04. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
05. All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST SONG
01. "Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)" (Avatar: The Way of Water)
02. "Lift Me Up" (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
03. "Naatu Naatu" (RRR)
04. "Hold My Hand" (Top Gun: Maverick)
05. "Applause" (Tell It like a Woman)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
01. Ivalu
02. Night Ride
03. Le Pupille
04. Warsha
05. Plastic Killer

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
01. My Year of Dicks
02. Ice Merchants
03. The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
04. An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
05. The Flying Sailor

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
01. Nuisance Bear
02. Shut Up and Paint
03. Angola Do You Hear Us?
04. The Martha Mitchell Effect
05. Anastasia

The one prediction that I am absolutely confident in is that I’m going to do quite poorly at this.

[therewillbeblus]

Upon noticing Jessie Buckley was pushed out of the top five on Goldderby today:

[DarkImbecile]

How would people feel about locking in submitted ballots and setting the deadline for submission a day or two earlier? I'm remembering that last year the betting markets suddenly shifted the day before nominations were announced as word leaked about some unexpected choices (I'm thinking specifically of the Mongolian yak in a school in International Feature); rather than let those kind of developments swing our competition, maybe we finalize submissions Sunday the 22nd at 11:59PM Pacific time?

[soundchaser]

How would people feel about locking in submitted ballots and setting the deadline for submission a day or two earlier? I'm remembering that last year the betting markets suddenly shifted the day before nominations were announced as word leaked about some unexpected choices (I'm thinking specifically of the Mongolian yak in a school in International Feature); rather than let those kind of developments swing our competition, maybe we finalize submissions Sunday the 22nd at 11:59PM Pacific time?

As long as we hold the deadline off until after BAFTA nominations, that's fine with me!

[DarkImbecile]

That's the 19th, so you're covered there

[soundchaser]

Thanks - I like to pretend they'll help my ballot.

[DarkImbecile]

Critic’s Choice Awards dominated by Everything Everywhere All at Once

[therewillbeblus]

Can anybody speak to the quality of Angela Bassett‘s perf in Black Panther? What’s happening here?

[Computer Raheem]

Can anybody speak to the quality of Angela Bassett‘s perf in Black Panther? What’s happening here?

It's... fine. Honestly, I was somewhat underwhelmed considering the praise thrown her way before the film's release. While I think her scenes during the film's quieter moments were quite good, I felt the big monologues she was given gave way to a lot of showboating and acting for the cheap sheats that robbed them of the intended gravity they were supposed to communicate (though that could just be an issue with direction more than her performance). Granted, I am basing this off of one viewing of the film; maybe a rewatch will illuminate what people are seeing in it that I'm not. But I wouldn't be surprised if she's winning most of these awards because: 1) Michelle Williams' perf in The Fabelmans is now in the running for Best Leading Actress, 2) wanting to award Bassett regardless of the actual performance, or 3) both

[Apperson]

Time to give this thing a go; I usually like to wait longer for any solid info on the Shorts and how they're playing but that did shit for me last year so what can you do.

UPDATED 01/19/23 01/22/23

Spoiler

BEST PICTURE
01.The Fabelmans
02.The Banshees of Inisherin
03.Everything Everywhere All at Once
04.Top Gun: Maverick
05.TÁR
06.Elvis
07.Avatar: The Way of Water
08.The Whale
09.All Quiet on the Western Front
10.Women Talking

BEST DIRECTOR
01.Steven Spielberg- The Fabelmans
02.Daniel Schienert and Daniel Kwan- Everything Everywhere All at Once
03.Martin McDonagh- The Banshees of Inisherin
04.Edward Berger- All Quiet on the Western Front
05.Todd Field- TÁR

BEST ACTRESS
01.Cate Blanchet- TÁR
02.Michelle Yeoh- Everything Everywhere All at Once
03.Danielle Deadwyler- Till
04.Viola Davis- The Woman King
05.Michelle Williams- The Fabelmans

BEST ACTOR
01.Austin Butler- Elvis
02.Brendan Fraser- The Whale
03.Colin Farrell- The Banshees of Inisherin
04.Bill Nighy- Living
05.Paul Mescal- Aftersun

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
01.Angela Bassett- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
02.Kerry Condon- The Banshees of Inisherin
03.Jamie Lee Curtis- Everything Everywhere, All at Once
04.Hong Chau- The Whale
05.Dolly de Leon- Triangle of Sadness

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
01.Key Huy Quan- Everything Everywhere All at Once
02.Brendan Gleeson- The Banshees of Inisherin
03.Barry Keoghan- The Banshees of Inisherin
04.Paul Dano- The Fabelmans
05.Judd Hirsch- The Fabelmans

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
01.The Banshees of Inisherin
02.The Fabelmans
03.Everything Everywhere All at Once
04.TÁR
05.Decision to Leave

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
01.Women Talking
02.The Whale
03.Glass Onion
04.All Quiet on the Western Front
05.Living

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
01.Top Gun: Maverick
02.The Fabelmans
03.Empire of Light
04.The Batman
05.Elvis

BEST EDITING
01.Top Gun: Maverick
02.Everything Everywhere All at Once
03.Elvis
04.The Fabelmans
05.All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
01.All Quiet on the Western front
02.Decision to Leave
03.Close
04.Argentina, 1985
05.Joyland

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
01.Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
02.Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
03.Turning Red
04.Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
05.My Father's Dragon

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
01.All That Breathes
02.Navalny
03.All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
04.Descendant
05.Bad Axe

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
01.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
02.Elvis
03.Babylon
04.The Fabelmans
05.The Woman King

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
01.Elvis
02.The Whale
03.The Batman
04.Amsterdam
05.All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
01.Elvis
02.Babylon
03.Avatar: The Way of Water
04.The Fabelmans
05.All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST SOUND
01.Top Gun: Maverick
02.Elvis
03.All Quiet on the Western Front
04.Avatar: The Way of Water
05.Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
01.Avatar: The Way of Water
02.Top Gun: Maverick
03.Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
04.The Batman
05.Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

BEST SCORE
01.The Fabelmans
02.Babylon
03.Women Talking
04.The Banshees of Inisherin
05.Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

BEST SONG
01."Lift Me Up"- Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
02."Hold My Hand"- Top Gun: Maverick
03."Naatu Naatu"- RRR
04."Applause"- Tell It Like a Woman
05."Carolina"- Where the Crawdads Sing

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
01.Le Pupille
02.An Irish Goodbye
03.Warsha
04.The Lone Wolf
05.Almost Home

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
01.The Boy, the Mole, The Fox and the Horse
02.New Moon
03.The Flying Sailor
04.An Ostrich Told Me The World Is Fake And I Think I Believe It
05.The Ice Merchants

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
01.The Flagmakers
02.The Elephant Whisperers
03.Nuisance Bear
04.How Do You Measure A Year?
05.As Far as They Can Run

[knives]

I don’t have enough a grasp on things to put forth a full list, but Save Ralph seems a lock for animated short.

[brundlefly]

Winner, Best Award Split 2022.

[brundlefly]

Can anybody speak to the quality of Angela Bassett‘s perf in Black Panther? What’s happening here?

It's... fine. Honestly, I was somewhat underwhelmed considering the praise thrown her way before the film's release. While I think her scenes during the film's quieter moments were quite good, I felt the big monologues she was given gave way to a lot of showboating and acting for the cheap sheats that robbed them of the intended gravity they were supposed to communicate (though that could just be an issue with direction more than her performance). Granted, I am basing this off of one viewing of the film; maybe a rewatch will illuminate what people are seeing in it that I'm not. But I wouldn't be surprised if she's winning most of these awards because: 1) Michelle Williams' perf in The Fabelmans is now in the running for Best Leading Actress, 2) wanting to award Bassett regardless of the actual performance, or 3) both

Saw this last night and... yeah. I liked her swings for the rafters more than you did, though those speeches were often too brief to have the build and heft they might have. (The "Have I not given everything?" speech is the perfect length for an awards show clip.) But the movie has a lot of problems and is so crowded it suffocates a lot of its biggest moments. The casts of the two Panther films are overflowing with charisma, but in this one a lot of them are forced away from their strengths into Marvel-style banter. Bassett is allowed to concentrate on matriarchal dignity so stands out here for that. Agree it's probably a legacy award, perhaps aided by what I guess is lackluster competition, an urge to recognize that cast, and maybe even the shadow of Boseman.

Spoiler

Her character also dies, which may help?

The outfit she wears in Haiti, though, is completely award-worthy. So sharp and simple. I wish more of the movie was her just standing there wearing that.

Haven't seen enough of the competition for that category -- the ones I have seen were fine, supportive -- but it makes me sad Kristen Stewart doesn't seem to be getting any love there. Not a movie I would ever consider Academy material, and she got a closetful of critics' awards last year before losing the Oscar, but hers was one of the few perfs this year that brought me real joy.

[Apperson]

2023 BAFTA Nominations