Awards Season 2022

[Kracker]

.....And naturally Butler wins over Fraser. And it is pretty much due to all the public drama. They're not going give a Globe to someone protesting their show and having an awkward moment where he's not there accepting it. They're going to give to someone so they can go up on stage. Same reason i figured Ke Huy Quan was going to win, they want a moment where they give Short Round an award so it'll show up on all the morning shows.

[therewillbeblus]

I'm just glad Zendaya and Justin Hurwitz won, but how did Angela Bassett squeeze to the front of the line in what feels like the most competitive acting category, quality-wise?

[ryannichols7]

Argentina, 1985 winning non-english film is proof they want to be relevant so badly

[Never Cursed]

I'm just glad Zendaya and Justin Hurwitz won, but how did Angela Bassett squeeze to the front of the line in what feels like the most competitive acting category, quality-wise?

That TV Actress - Drama category was kind of hilarious - did anyone in the world give a single shit about any of the other nominated performances? (I'm more surprised you aren't the first to hype up how a film co-written by Mariano Llinás took an award over a comparatively huge populist favorite)

[therewillbeblus]

The only one I can think of is Laura Linney. I don't watch Ozark but the show has devoted fans

[Kracker]

But not Julia Garner? Who's obviously that show's MVP (and one of tonight's big winners)

[therewillbeblus]

She's been winning consistently throughout the show's run so I assumed she was the MVP, but I've heard a lot of praise for Linney, and sometimes people push to honor the actors who haven't won yet after a series wraps. Obviously Zendaya was going to take that one though, and I can't think of a more deserving actress working across any medium. She gave the best performance of last by a country mile

[thirtyframesasecond]

At least the GG have moved on from Ricky Gervais's 'I'll never be invited back / they're just jokes / I don't care' shtick that he's been doing for a decade. I've not seen Jerrod Carmichael's comedy before but his monologue was strong and his joke about Shelly Miscavige elicited gasps in the room.

[therewillbeblus]

See, I'm not a big fan of his comedy, but Rick Gervais' monologue the last time he hosted was the best thing I've ever seen at an awards show. The way he shamelessly exposed the Hollywood elite's hypocrisy and solipsistic entitlement was brilliant, and I loved the cutaways to Tom Hanks et al's expressions as they heard humbling information for seemingly the first time.

[Apperson]

Nominees for the 29th SAG Awards

[therewillbeblus]

God bless anyone nominating de Armas, who in a just world should already be slated to win in a landslide

[ryannichols7]

minor rant about Oscar bloggers...they are probably my least favorite faction of "film internet" and seem to be the most out of touch. after the Globes (which aren't predictive of the Oscars at all, as we know) basically shutout Babylon, I wonder if they're still convinced that's going to do well? after it was already a box office bomb, got pretty dreadful reviews, and generally seems to not be relevant at all, they're the only ones still hyping it up. obviously Don't Look Up still got nominations last year, but...I'm not seeing it.

[therewillbeblus]

I was shocked it won best score - it absolutely should have, but it wasn't even a top contender on Goldderby until today, so if anything I imagine the Oscars will shut Babylon out more than the Globes did, which only boosted it with a reward in the category it has the best chance at winning

[MV88]

I'm getting some mixed signals from the Golden Globes results paired with the SAG nominations, which is a good thing in terms of preventing things from becoming too predictable. The Fabelmans winning at the Globes definitely helped it, but SAG not nominating Michelle Williams indicates it's still very vulnerable even if it is the de facto frontrunner at the moment (which is debatable). I still kind of think Everything Everywhere All at Once is going to become the frontrunner in the near future even with its loss at the Globes (which recently haven't been as relevant to where the Academy eventually goes as they once were anyway) because it seems to me the likeliest winner of the Best Ensemble Cast award at SAG (they even nominated Stephanie Hsu whose chances had seemed to be fading), and in recent years that's actually been the biggest indicator of Best Picture momentum.

Austin Butler winning wasn't much of a surprise for reasons already indicated, and I don't see it as a significant blow to Fraser's chances. In fact, Hong Chau's SAG nomination shows there may be more support for The Whale than previously thought, so I still think Fraser is the frontrunner with Farrell in second and Butler a potential spoiler.

I don't actually watch any of the award shows and only follow the results, but apparently people really loved Michelle Yeoh's speech whereas Cate Blanchett didn't even attend (good for her, though), so I wouldn't be completely shocked if Yeoh wins the SAG too and becomes the frontrunner at that point.

Supporting Actress is still the most uncertain of the acting categories, but maybe that's just because an MCU role winning an Oscar is hard for me to digest even if I do understand that a big part of it is just career appreciation for Angela Bassett. I still think Kerry Condon is a threat, though, especially if Banshees of Inisherin's Globe win wasn't a fluke and it actually starts winning at other ceremonies (BAFTA seems the most likely place for it).

Women Talking is barely hanging on at this point, and I'm kind of thinking it gets nominated for Picture and Adapted Screenplay only. Top Gun's only real chance from here on out is the PGA awards, and if it doesn't win there, I think we can all put the notion of it winning Best Picture to rest.

[therewillbeblus]

Of all the front runners on Goldderby, Kerry Condon is easily the most deserving in her category and I really hope nobody disrupts that (especially the MCU... if there was ever a reason to abandon the ceremony for good, that would be it). I'm not quite as high on Banshees as the rest of you, but she's handily the best thing about it

[DarkImbecile]

Given the difference in voting bodies, the Globes are basically meaningless compared to SAG/PGA/DGA and the BAFTAs, which all have substantial overlap with Academy membership

[MV88]

I think the only real way the Globes can impact the Oscars is if a winner there gives a particularly well received acceptance speech, which for better or worse does actually seem to matter to some voters. I suppose the Globes can also serve to create the perception of a movie being over-awarded, thereby making some voters reconsider voting for it. And that is definitely a thing, because my wife is a SAG member and keeps track of the forums there. Every single year there are plenty of people who explicitly state the reason they're not voting for a certain movie is because it's "won enough already," which of course just goes to show how the abundance of award shows all but guarantees none of them are truly based on the voters' ideas of merit and are much more reactionary than they'll likely ever admit. Apparently there are already people in the SAG forums complaining about The Fabelmans winning too much and/or being too obvious a choice, so its Golden Globe win could actually work against it.

[Apperson]

2022 Directors Guild Nominations

Todd Field- TAR
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Schienert- Everything Everywhere all at Once
Joseph Kosinski- Top Gun: Maverick
Martin McDonough- The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg- The Fabelmans

That Kosinski nom is wild.

[therewillbeblus]

Don’t know whether to laugh or turn off all the lights

[Apperson]

I think Top Gun is better than Avatar, but in terms of blockbuster filmaking I think shepherding you auteurist sci-fi universe to $2 billion for the second time is more impressive than being Tom Cruise's lackey.

And I'm sorry to say that, for others at least because I at least like the films on here that I've seen, that was the only realistic way these nominations would be different.

[Never Cursed]

Eh, I think it's infinitely preferable for Kosinski get in than Cameron (though as you note, Cruise is just as much the creative force here). Basically the only point of interest in the Top Gun sequel is the amount of time all the principals spent in real fighter jets enduring high G-forces (while themselves operating the cameras recording them); that's a lot more impressive to watch than Cameron's advances in creating video game cutscenes. A pity that Babylon did so poorly that Paramount just swapped out which of its big releases got the awards push, though.

[therewillbeblus]

I didn’t even notice Cameron’s absence, so never mind, agreed this is preferable for the exact reason Never Cursed cites. Everyone I know personally who is in the world of flying (FAA lifers, retired pilots) has been praising the film’s accuracy of flying, so if that’s the marker for good direction, I suppose it’s earned

[DarkImbecile]

The ridiculously blockbuster-friendly PGA nominees

[Apperson]

For easy viewing:

Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale

[therewillbeblus]

I mean, that's what the Oscar noms for BP are going to look like too, just adding in Women Talking and probably removing two-three of those add-ons