Awards Season 2022

[DarkImbecile]

All, right here we go:



Anyone can participate in the 2023 Criterionforum.org Oscars Prediction Competition Game — just make sure you have your predictions for each category posted in this thread (or PMed to me if you're worried someone will Price is Right your guesses) before 11:59PM PT on Sunday, January 22. I'll post the results for the nominations round and then we'll carry those scores over into the predictions for the ceremony, where the scores can really change!

Speaking of scoring, we'll be going with swo's suggestion of splitting a pool of available points between those with correct guesses, which A) rewards those who go out on a limb, B) introduces an element of strategy in making predictions, and C) requires under force of internet law that swo17 participate in the game. In order to give more weight to certain categories and winners, multipliers will be applied as follows:

SCORING (NOMINATIONS):
3 POINTS X NUMBER OF PLAYERS/NUMBER OF CORRECT GUESSES: Picture, Director, Acting, Screenplay

2 POINTS X NUMBER OF PLAYERS/NUMBER OF CORRECT GUESSES: International Feature, Cinematography, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Editing, Sound, Costume, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design, Visual Effects

1 POINT X NUMBER OF PLAYERS/NUMBER OF CORRECT GUESSES: Song, Animated Short, Documentary Short, Live Action Short

EXAMPLE: If we have 10 players, each guess for Best Picture nominations will have a maximum of 30 possible points and a minimum of 3 points. If every player guesses Avatar: The Way of Water and it is in fact nominated, each player will be awarded 3 points. If only domino harvey guesses that the Liam Neeson classic Blacklight will be a Best Picture nominee, and it is, he receives all 30 points. In less weighted categories, fewer points will be available: if only Never Cursed and therewillbeblus correctly guess that Glass Onion will be nominated for Documentary Feature, each will receive 10 points.

SCORING (WINNERS):
5 POINTS X NUMBER OF PLAYERS/NUMBER OF CORRECT GUESSES: All Categories

EXAMPLE: If only soundchaser correctly predicts that Tár will win the Oscar for Visual Effects, he will receive 50 points.

The final winner after both rounds will be PM'ed $35 in Criterion store codes (and maybe more if anyone else joins Never Cursed and myself in adding to the pot) the day after the ceremony, and be viewed with bitterness and envy by everyone else until the 2024 ceremony.

I've spoiler-boxed a blank nominations ballot below for your use:

Spoiler

BEST PICTURE
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BEST DIRECTOR
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BEST ACTRESS
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BEST ACTOR
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
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BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
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BEST EDITING
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05.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
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05.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
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05.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
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05.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
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05.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
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05.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
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BEST SOUND
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BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
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BEST SCORE
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BEST SONG
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BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
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BEST ANIMATED SHORT
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BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
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05.

[DarkImbecile]

ASC Nominations

[swo17]

I suppose I'll play under the same conditions as any office pool I join/ruin: I contribute nothing to the pot, and if I win, everyone else gets their money back

[Computer Raheem]

I have my own system when it comes to awards guessing: I oftentimes split my predicted winner into two, what I think will win and what I want to win. It lets me have it both ways - I can guess via the industry speculation and what I'm personally rooting for/would have nominated instead (for example, for the Sound category, I can predict Top Gun will take the award, while I can also lament that Nope wasn't even shortlisted). Would I be allowed to use this system or should I just stick to one or the other?

[DarkImbecile]

That’s basically what I do every year; just make clear which is the prediction and which is the lament, and I’ll use the former for the game

[Computer Raheem]

That’s basically what I do every year; just make clear which is the prediction and which is the lament, and I’ll use the former for the game

Duly noted; I'll separate by what will win, what I want to win, and what should have been nominated if I feel it to be necessary (the last one may be loosely defined, but it's simply a way for me to vent)

[therewillbeblus]

Spoiler

Wait, Nope isn't going to sweep?

[DarkImbecile]

It definitely is, please make predictions accordingly

[therewillbeblus]

I'm afraid all the horses are going to vote-split supporting categories, so it doesn't feel like a safe bet there. But I'll seriously consider it for a left-field BP nom if it's eligible. Computer Raheem, are you lamenting it was shortlisted across the board, or just in the announced 'less-point' categories?

[Computer Raheem]

I'm afraid all the horses are going to vote-split supporting categories, so it doesn't feel like a safe bet there. But I'll seriously consider it for a left-field BP nom if it's eligible. Computer Raheem, are you lamenting it was shortlisted across the board, or just in the announced 'less-point' categories?

Neither, to be honest; I was expecting Nope to be a presence in most (if not all) the technical categories (the big ones are a crapshoot, though there are two spots I'm predicting it might be nominated in), so I was surprised that the sound design - arguably the one point that everyone who's seen the film can agree is excellent - was snubbed considering it was deemed a forerunner and a potential winner in that category. I fully expect other nominations, though I'm not predicting it to get a Best Picture nom

[therewillbeblus]

I fully expect other nominations, though I'm not predicting it to get a Best Picture nom

Then I'll get all the points

[Computer Raheem]

I fully expect other nominations, though I'm not predicting it to get a Best Picture nom

Then I'll get all the points

At least we can duel with my "What I Want To Win" section

[DarkImbecile]

Boy, I hadn’t actually tried to put a list of nominations together until today, and it seems like the back half of nearly every category is very unsettled and/or wide open in a way I haven’t seen in a while. Bet we get some crazy variance in scoring this year…

[soundchaser]

I've finally started putting mine together today, and it is a crime against all that is decent that Tár wasn't shortlisted in any of the audio categories.

[swo17]

Where are the shortlists?

[therewillbeblus]

I've finally started putting mine together today, and it is a crime against all that is decent that Tár wasn't shortlisted in any of the audio categories.

Blame James Cameron for hogging all the spotlight and forcing a vote split with (Ava)Tar 2: Lydia Tar’s Delusions Continue and Go a Bit Too Far

[soundchaser]

I've finally started putting mine together today, and it is a crime against all that is decent that Tár wasn't shortlisted in any of the audio categories.

Blame James Cameron for hogging all the spotlight and forcing a vote split with (Ava)Tar 2: Lydia Tar’s Delusions Continue and Go a Bit Too Far

Spoiler for my ballot: Avatar is going to clean up in pretty much everything it's shortlisted for.

Where are the shortlists?

Ten categories here. I don't think we get shortlists for the bigguns.

[therewillbeblus]

Spoiler for my BP picks

Spoiler

01.Everything Everywhere All At Once, or Validation for How Many Americans Feel All of the Time
02.The Fabelmans, or Watch Me Avoid Facing Things I’m Trying To Show You I’m Facing
03.Tar, or How to Trick Audiences into Accepting Nonexistent Depth with Formal Precision
04.AvaTar 2: Lydia Tar’s Descent Becomes Increasingly Silly
05.Top Gun: Top of the Box Office = Top Oscar, Right?
06.Women Talking About Really Important Things
07.Banshees of Ostentatious Scripts
08.Elvis, or Tom Hanks’ Faustian Vanity Project

[thirtyframesasecond]

Looks like Actor and Actress are two horse races and everyone else should be grateful for their nominations. As much as I'd like to see Farrell win (and he is superb) he always has another McDonagh or Lanthimos film I guess. This might be Fraser's sole shot (not that I've seen The Whale). Again with the proviso of not having see these films I imagine Spielberg will bag Best Director in an award that pleases nobody because the apparently stronger films are actors films not directors films.

[MV88]

Looks like Actor and Actress are two horse races and everyone else should be grateful for their nominations. As much as I'd like to see Farrell win (and he is superb) he always has another McDonagh or Lanthimos film I guess. This might be Fraser's sole shot (not that I've seen The Whale). Again with the proviso of not having see these films I imagine Spielberg will bag Best Director in an award that pleases nobody because the apparently stronger films are actors films not directors films.

I was leaning towards Farrell winning until The Whale actually started doing decent box office (relatively speaking, that is; obviously it’s never going to be a hit comparable to mega-budget blockbusters) and may even end up outgrossing other Oscar contenders like The Fabelmans. You’re right that this may be Fraser’s only shot whereas Farrell seems poised to become more of an Oscar favorite at this point in his career, and the narrative is definitely there for Fraser to win. So I’m back to leaning towards Fraser winning.

For Best Actress, I think the only way Michelle Yeoh wins is if they’re going for Everything Everywhere All at Once in Best Picture — which might well happen. At this point I think Best Picture is probably between that and Top Gun, with Banshees of Inisherin and The Fabelmans still possible but fading.

[therewillbeblus]

I think the acting categories are pretty locked down. Actor is Fraser’s to lose. People like him, it’s a comeback perf almost unanimously rooted for (seemingly even by those who hate the film), and a traditional Best Actor performance. It also doesn’t hurt that Fraser has been humble yet candid about his own suffering over the years with health in addition to being a political voice as a male survivor of sexual assault within the industry (I am not suggesting that this alone boosters a win, but it absolutely helps him earn the sympathy and respect he has by the industry right now backing him in this category, and I think that’s pretty heartening). On the other hand, the particular strength of Farrell’s role may be diluted as he blends into an ensemble and shows subtler strengths than what are typically rewarded in that category. Occasionally subtly is recognized (i.e. Casey Affleck) but in those cases the central performance is also so spotlit within the film that voters cannot look beyond it. Banshees is more democratically focused (for better, not worse) and consequently I don’t think Farrell’s work will be pronounced in the way enough people voting still expect it to in order to earn their vote. But if I were to choose, I’d pick him.

I also want Yeoh to win because that’d be fun, and it’d be cool to reward an impressive performance that is wielding eclectic skills oft-ignored in these lead categories, but Blanchett will be the recipient of the only major Oscar granted to the beloved Tar. I hope I’m wrong through.

[Pavel]

I think people shouldn’t underestimate Butler as the Rami Malek-type win. I’d say he’s very likely to win the Globe tonight and SAG later

[MV88]

I wouldn’t be surprised if Butler won the Globe over Fraser simply due to all the stuff that’s been made public about Fraser and the HFPA (he’s not even going to be attending, right?), but I’m not going to read too much into that unless, as you said, he also wins the SAG. But I don’t think it’s at all implausible that Butler could win the Golden Globe but nothing else after that. Elvis is a very Globes-friendly movie in general, so if any awards group is going to give it a big prize, it’s them.

I’m almost rooting for the Globes to go to Butler and Farrell, the SAG to go to Fraser, and the BAFTA to go to Bill Nighy just so nobody has any idea who’s going to win heading into Oscar night.

[therewillbeblus]

Butler is the supporting actor in his own movie, there's no way he wins the Oscar. Maybe the Globe, but that ceremony has begun to feel even less predictive and more superfluous over time, and the bar wasn't high! If Fraser loses, I anticipate a wave of thinkpieces hypothesizing conspiratorial influence and the awards losing any remaining shred of credibility and good will they have left, even if there's no relationship. If anything, I'd expect tampering to occur to secure him a win, especially given his public defamation of the ceremony! It would look like a petty reaction to the masses, regardless of how voting goes, but something tells me the Hollywood crowd voting will champion Fraser's 'stand' regardless, unless there's a dramatically different pool of demographics in voters for the Globes vs. Oscars. I'll never again underestimate the power of these kinds of political statements after Farhadi swooped in and managed to beat clear-favorite Ade in the wake of Trump's Muslim ban because the justifiably angry liberal voters wanted to see his telecasted speech. All that said against the Globes, if Triangle of Sadness wins any of its shocking yet wholly deserved noms, I might even be motivated to watch it next year- the Oscars could take a page from them here

[swo17]

I'm probably not going to do very well here--it took me several posts to figure out who you all meant by "Butler"