Awards Season 2021

[therewillbeblus]

Unbelievably, West Side Story star Rachel Zegler not invited to the Oscars

I saw that and wondered if they were trying to distance themselves from Ansel Elgort and stupidly figured it’d be easier to not invite both the leads to deviate attention, when it would do the opposite. Though it’s apparently Disney making the call, so who even knows what’s going on.

[domino harvey]

Hopefully someone from the film who is going takes her with them as their +1

[soundchaser]

The Academy has now invited Zegler to be a presenter.

Running a tight ship as always.

[therewillbeblus]

I've said this before regarding certain absurd category upsets, but if McKay beats PTA I might just have to be done.

Don't worry, this will be Branagh's consolation prize. Decide now whether that's better or worse!

Belfast has indeed now pulled ahead of Licorice Pizza in the Original Screenplay category on goldderby

For a year where we saw the release of so many promising projects shelved during 2020, this has to be one of the worst Oscar races in the last decade

[aox]

For a year where we saw the release of so many promising projects shelved during 2020, this has to be one of the worst Oscar races in the last decade

I alluded to this in the Nightmare Alley thread, but I couldn't agree more. I still have three more Best Picture nominees to screen before the ceremony and I am not looking forward to any of them. I don't recall such a slog of a year. Usually there are least two BP nominees that I am enthusiastic about.

[domino harvey]

As someone who's seen all of one of the nominated films for Best Picture (yet!), I think the main slate looks way more appealing than last year's, it's just that the ones I want to watch least are the ones that will win everything!

[therewillbeblus]

Right, my point is that last year was supposed to be a wash and this year was primed to be a resurgence of shelved projects from 2020, so for them to be remotely similar is disappointing. Though I loved two of the BP noms both this year and last year, I just ‘liked’ more than one from last year’s slate and hated less of them. Looking back it was a markedly better year of nominees than I even remembered!

[felipe]

Right, my point is that last year was supposed to be a wash and this year was primed to be a resurgence of shelved projects from 2020, so for them to be remotely similar is disappointing. Though I loved two of the BP noms both this year and last year, I just ‘liked’ more than one from last year’s slate and hated less of them. Looking back it was a markedly better year of nominees than I even remembered!

But do you think the movies of 2021 were underwhelming or the choice of the nominees?

[therewillbeblus]

The choice of the nominees, but given that some high-profile filmmakers released films that were potential, it not expected nominees, that's the overlap I'm referring to

[hearthesilence]

I nearly tuned out after the nominees were announced, but I was really happy Drive My Car got nominated in the major categories. I usually have very low expectations, so seeing a Best Picture nomination for a non-English film that was at/near the top of my list of favorite films was good enough. (Memoria and Days would've been amazing but they were always going to be long shots - I don't think either had a significant campaign for nominations.)

I wish The Souvenir Part II, C'mon C'mon, The Card Counter, Benedetta and Bad Luck Banging... had broken through - I think they all had a good chance at one high profile nomination.

[therewillbeblus]

I don't think any of those had a good chance (despite enjoying all of them), except for C'mon C'mon, which inexplicably fell short of any- it's exactly the kind of movie the Academy pays attention to and I can think of multiple nominations that would be shoe-ins, deservedly and in step with the Academy's standards, had there been more notice

[therewillbeblus]

Ty Burr's amusingly acidic takedown of the Academy Awards' pratfalls of late:

Could the Academy Awards get any worse than last year? You remember that in 2021 telecast producer Steven Soderbergh tackled the challenge of a pandemic-era Oscars, and with a sharp, smart opening bit featuring nominated director Regina King striding through L.A.’s Union Station, he seemed poised to pull it off. But the evening sloped off from there, to the point where Glenn Close was called upon to do “Da Butt” during a weary trivia game segment. And then came the slow-motion car crash: Putting the Best Picture award second to last (it went to “Nomadland”) so the show could end with Best Actor, which everyone knew would go to the late Chadwick Bozeman for “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” Except that it didn’t. Anthony Hopkins, who was at home in Wales, asleep in his bed, won for his (equally deserving) performance in “The Father.” And so what was meant to be the crowning touch on an Olympian evening became the final sigh of a collapsing building.

Hold my beer, replies Oscar 2022. First, the show’s producers announced that eight awards would be handed out before the show was aired, thus denying the winners their traditional moment of glory before an audience of millions. The excluded categories are Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and the Documentary, Animated, and Live Action Shorts group. Predictably and correctly, editors, production designers, et al., raised noisy objections, and so did directors like Steven Spielberg, Guillermo del Toro, and many others. A petition gathered 14,000 signatures, but the producers, desperate for ratings and deaf to the artistry and craftsmanship the evening is meant to celebrate, refused to budge.

Amy Schumer, Wanda Sykes, and Regina Hall have signed on as co-hosts; the first two have not raised much hopes for elegant repartee, and Schumer quickly struck a discordant note by announcing she hoped to get Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy to put in a Zoom appearance. (Word is he has his hands full elsewhere.) A list of presenters that circulated earlier this week included such notable contributors to the filmic arts as singer H.E.R., skateboard legend Tony Hawk, surfer Kelly Slater, Olympic snowboarder Shaun White, and DJ/producer DJ Khaled. It’s as if they wanted the Academy Awards to become a cross between the Grammys and the X-Games. Oh, and “West Side Story” star Rachel Zegler took to social media to complain she hadn’t even been invited, thus depriving the ceremonies of exactly the kind of appealing young face they should be celebrating. After a two-day kerfuffle, Zegler was asked to be a presenter; the villain in the affair may be the Walt Disney Co., which both owns the show’s broadcast home, ABC, and is producing a Snow White movie starring Zegler in London that it apparently didn’t want to jeopardize.

Ratings for awards shows have been plummeting in recent years, but the Oscars is still the king of the hill in terms of numbers, so why would they want to break it further? Especially when changes to nominating rules and a serious member diversity drive in recent years have resulted in – surprise – a pretty broad lineup of Best Picture nominees? (You could still ask for a broader spectrum of color and gender in most of the categories, of course. Exceptions aside, Oscar remains #SoVeryWhite.) You have a blockbuster sci-fi tentpole in “Dune” and a tiny regional crowd pleaser in “CODA.” There’s a lavish musical remake by the best commercial filmmaker in America in “West Side Story” and a quietly profound Japanese meditation on grief and guilt in “Drive My Car.” A sly skewering of macho Western clichés (“The Power of the Dog”) and an embrace of old-fashioned nostalgic family drama (“Belfast”). A comeback film for a much-loved star (“King Richard”) and a darkly ambitious tale of greed and comeuppance (“Nightmare Alley”). An eccentric indie love story (“Licorice Pizza”) and an all-star satire about human stupidity (“Don’t Look Up”). You couldn’t ask for a more reasonable representation of the state of cinema in the third decade of the 21st century.

Well, maybe if you included the year’s biggest moneymaker, “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” as a number of aggrieved commentators have suggested. And given that Disney owns both the telecast and Marvel, the superhero movie’s exclusion from everything except the race for Best Visual Effects might give rise to a conspiracy theory or two as to why the Mouse House is pressuring the show’s producers to make the telecast appeal to apparently everyone except movie lovers. Seriously, who are the Oscars for? Casual moviegoers who only see the big multiplex releases because that’s what lands on their radar? Or people who appreciate the medium in all its iterations and for all its behind-the-scenes artisans? Or, hey, why not both? (And throw in the viewers who come for the fashion show and the ones who settle in with popcorn for three hours of bad jokes and schadenfreude.) Film writer Daniel Joyaux spelled out a pretty good fantasy Oscars solution on Twitter this week: Two separate halves of the show – one for the cineastes, guild fans and film-history nerds (me, in other words) and one for the celebrity watchers, with a half-time show of performances in the middle. I’d watch that. And maybe you’d watch at least some of it.

As it stands, this year’s Academy Awards seems hell-bent on wooing people who don’t like movies — a perverse approach, to put it mildly. In the words of the L.A. Times’ Justin Chang, in an expert skewering of the whole boondoggle: “Any Academy worth its salt would own its film geekery as proudly as it owns its red-carpet plumage, its strained presenter banter and its tacky musical numbers … You could call that elitism; I prefer to think of it as the academy doing its damn job.” I’ll be watching, as I do every year – in fact, for the first time in two decades, I’ll be watching at home with my wife instead of pounding out copy for the late edition at the Globe newsroom – but I fear I’ll be watching much of it through my fingers.

[lacritfan]

Brutally Honest Oscar Ballot #1
Brutally Honest Oscar Ballot #2

[Computer Raheem]

Brutally Honest Oscar Ballot #1
Brutally Honest Oscar Ballot #2

I guess this means that PTA isn't getting his award this time (again). ](*,)

[ianthemovie]

Yikes. Here's one that's a little more sane, though probably not typical: https://www.indiewire.com/2022/03/anony ... 234710044/

[soundchaser]

In spite of “nailing my colors” I’m changing two of my picks — Cruz and The Worst Person in the World just seem to be getting support from every branch of the Academy here. (Call me a coward if you must.)

[felipe]

So, based on those anonymous ballots... nobody likes The Power of the Dog anymore?

[Never Cursed]

Etching my predix in stone (thank you soundchaser for the template)

Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch'intrate

BEST PICTURE
CODA

BEST DIRECTOR
Jane Campion

BEST ACTOR
Will Smith

BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Troy Kotsur

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ariana DeBose

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Belfast

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Power of the Dog

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Cruella

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
The Eyes of Tammy Faye

BEST EVERY SINGLE OTHER TECHNICAL AWARD
Dune

BEST SONG
No Time to Die

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Drive My Car

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Summer of Soul

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
"The Long Goodbye”

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
“Robin Robin”

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
"The Queen of Basketball"

[therewillbeblus]

Shh maybe if none of us vote for Belfast, it’ll just go away

[lacritfan]

Five more to make you just give up

[therewillbeblus]

Predictions:

Spoiler

BEST PICTURE
CODA

BEST DIRECTOR
Jane Campion

BEST ACTOR
Will Smith

BEST ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Troy Kotsur

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ariana DeBose

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Licorice Pizza

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Lost Daughter

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune

BEST FILM EDITING
Dune

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nightmare Alley

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Cruella

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
The Eyes of Tammy Faye

BEST SCORE
The Power of the Dog

BEST SONG
No Time to Die

BEST SOUND
Dune

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Drive My Car

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Summer of Soul

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
"The Long Goodbye”

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
“Robin Robin”

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
"The Queen of Basketball"

tl;dr: I get it, everyone likes Dune but me. I don't believe anyone really likes Don't Look Up but me though. And fuck Belfast.

I'm going to spend the weekend going back and forth on Campion taking director as I read more and more outrage from prominent voices in the critical sphere post-Williams sisters comments. Apparently this is still very much a thing.

[soundchaser]

Elaine May, unsurprisingly, the sharpest person at the Governors Awards.

The whole thread is worth looking through. Still stings that these don’t get presented live.

[Pavel]

Here are my unfortunately pretty safe predictions. I could see Dune miss at least one of the tech awards (maybe Production Design in favor of Nightmare Alley, or Editing) and yes, Cruz in Actress (or even some of the other actresses). I know Campion is practically a lock, but the anonymous ballots kind of made me toy with the idea of going with an ultra long-shot Spielberg prediction, but ultimately I resisted.

forgot to spoiler mark initially

BEST PICTURE
CODA

BEST DIRECTOR
Jane Campion

BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain

BEST ACTOR
Will Smith

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Troy Kotsur

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Ariana DeBose

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Belfast

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Dune

BEST EDITING
Dune

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dune

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Cruella

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
The Eyes of Tammy Faye

BEST SCORE
Dune

BEST SONG
No Time to Die

BEST SOUND
Dune

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Dune

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Drive My Car

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Summer of Soul

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
The Queen of Basketball

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
The Long Goobye

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Robin Robin

[DarkImbecile]

Caught almost all of the major nominated films outside of tick, tick... BOOM! and a handful of the documentary and animated feature nominees (and I'm hopeful to catch up with those soon), a nice turnaround from last year's depressing awards season, for which I saw maybe half...

All the correct predictions

Best Picture:
Prediction: The Power of the Dog
My Pick (Nominees): The Power of the Dog
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Spencer

Best Director:
Prediction: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
My Pick (Nominees): Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Mike Mills, C'mon C'mon

Best Actress:
Prediction: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
My Pick (Nominees): Kristen Stewart, Spencer
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Agathe Rousselle, Titane (close call with Rebecca Hall in The Night House)

Best Actor:
Prediction: Will Smith, King Richard
My Pick (Nominees): Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Joaquin Phoenix, C'mon C'mon

Best Supporting Actress:
Prediction: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
My Pick (Nominees): Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Gaby Hoffman, C'mon C'mon

Best Supporting Actor:
Prediction: Troy Kotsur, CODA
My Pick (Nominees): Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Masaki Okada, Drive My Car

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Prediction: Sian Heder, CODA
My Pick (Nominees): Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Kim Morgan and Guillermo Del Toro, Nightmare Alley

Best Original Screenplay:
Prediction: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
My Pick (Nominees): Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Mike Mills, C'mon C'mon

Best Cinematography:
Prediction: Greig Fraser, Dune
My Pick (Nominees): Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Robbie Ryan, C'mon C'mon

Best International Film:
Prediction: Drive My Car
My Pick (Nominees): Drive My Car
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Petit Maman

Best Editing:
Prediction: Dune
My Pick (Nominees): The Power of the Dog
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Spencer

Best Original Score:
Prediction:Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog
My Pick (Nominees): Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Jonny Greenwood, Spencer

Best Original Song:
Prediction: Billie Eilish, "No Time to Die", No Time to Die
My Pick (Nominees): Billie Eilish, "No Time to Die", No Time to Die
My Pick (Non-Nominees): "So May We Start", Annette

Best Production Design:
Prediction: Dune
My Pick (Nominees): Nightmare Alley
My Pick (Non-Nominees): The French Dispatch

Best Costume Design:
Prediction: Cruella
My Pick (Nominees): Dune
My Pick (Non-Nominees): The Last Duel

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Prediction: Dune
My Pick (Nominees): Dune
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Nightmare Alley

Visual Effects:
Prediction: Dune
My Pick (Nominees): Dune
My Pick (Non-Nominees): The Matrix Resurrections

Sound:
Prediction: Dune
My Pick (Nominees): Dune
My Pick (Non-Nominees): The Green Knight

Best Documentary Feature:
Prediction: Summer of Soul
My Pick (Nominees): Flee
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Nuclear Family

Best Animated Feature:
Prediction: Encanto
My Pick (Nominees): Flee
My Pick (Non-Nominees): Once again, all the animated features I've seen were nominated

Best Documentary Short:
Prediction: "The Queen of Basketball"

Best Animated Short:
Prediction: "Robin Robin"

Best Live Action Short:
Prediction: "The Long Goodbye"

[DarkImbecile]

So here's my scoring for the nomination round, and in case that's too small to read, here are the totals:

Pavel: 316
dekadetia: 307
Never Cursed: 305
Toland's Mitchell: 305
DarkImbecile: 304
Apperson: 303
soundchaser: 301
twbb: 301
domino harvey: 298

Please double check my math for your own scores if you have any doubts, as it's a near certainty I made a mistake or two over 1080 guesses

Observations:

• Pavel is obviously connected to the bookies getting inside info
• domino should be proud to have nailed some of the biggest surprises
• I was happy to be the only contestant to get all the Best Picture nominees, but I got absolutely smoked in the technical/short nominations
• Only Never Cursed got Best Actor entirely correct

Feel free to post your predictions for winners in this thread or via PM to me between now and 2PM ET on Sunday, March 27th; each winner will be worth five points, so it's certainly possible to overtake Pavel, assuming he doesn't cheat again

So for those playing the predictions game, you have about 26.5 hours to post or revise your picks for the winners; as of now still missing predictions from dekadetia, Toland's Mitchell, and Apperson, and I am hereby making domino post the rest of his picks.