Awards Season 2021

[domino harvey]

I’ll guess shorts I guess (shorts)

[dekadetia]

PICTURE
Belfast
CODA
Don't Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
Tick Tick Boom
West Side Story

DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson
Kenneth Branagh
Jane Campion
Steven Spielberg
Denis Villeneuve

ACTOR
Javier Bardem
Benedict Cumberbatch
Andrew Garfield
Will Smith
Denzel Washington

ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain
Olivia Colman
Lady Gaga
Jennifer Hudson
Nicole Kidman

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bradley Cooper
Ciarán Hinds
Troy Kotsur
Jared Leto
Kodi Smit-McPhee

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Caitríona Balfe
Cate Blanchett
Ariana DeBose
Kirsten Dunst
Ruth Negga

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don't Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CODA
Drive My Car
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Belfast
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth

EDITING
Belfast
Don't Look Up
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Drive My Car
Flee
The Hand of God
A Hero
The Worst Person in the World

ANIMATED FEATURE
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon

DOC FEATURE
Attica
Flee
Julia
The Rescue
Summer of Soul

COSTUME
Cruella
Dune
House of Gucci
Spencer
West Side Story

MAKEUP
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
West Side Story

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Cruella
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

SOUND
Dune
No Time To Die
The Power of the Dog
Tick Tick Boom
West Side Story

VFX
Dune
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home

SCORE
Don't Look Up
Dune
Encanto
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog

SONG
"Be Alive"
"Dos Oruguitas"
"Here I Am"
"Just Look Up"
"No Time to Die"

LIVE ACTION SHORT
Frimas
The Long Goodbye
Take and Run
Under the Heavens
When the Sun Sets

ANIMATED SHORT
Bestia
Namoo
Robin Robin
Step Into the River
Us Again

DOC SHORT
Audible
Coded
The Queen of Basketball
Terror Contagion
When We Were Bullies

[DarkImbecile]

BAFTA nominations

Everyone playing the Oscar predictions game, make sure to revise your guesses to include Julia Ducournau in Director and remove Olivia Colman and Nicole Kidman in Actress, thanks

[Pavel]

The most interesting part of the noms for me is that the Acting categories were selected by a jury with the exception of the top two picks by the whole voting body. So clearly Kidman is not such a frontrunner if she didn't get in, and Gaga was probably number 1. So I guess 2 was... Alana Haim!

Otherwise nice set of noms, especially in Supporting Actor (Faist and Norman, hell yeah!!). Hamaguchi gets both Director (jury category) and Screenplay (non-jury category) so the support for Drive My Car extends beyond critics, which is great

Colman missed last year for The Father so I don't think she's quite done

[Apperson]

I mean, I'd definitely touch every other category besides the acting ones with regards to BAFTA, and I'll update my predictions when I add the shorts, with all that in mind:

• Add Drive My Car as you can make room for it in Director, Screenplay, and Picture in that order
• Take out one of Branagh or Spielberg to make room for Ryusuke Hamaguchi
• Remove West Side Story from at least one technical category and probably Screenplay, I have no idea what's going on their but there is clear disinterest in the film from significant sectors in the industry

Otherwise, I love the acting categories with Actress in particular being really interesting. If that Original Screenplay lineup is as chalk as it looks it might be my least favourite in years.

[Pavel]

I think I'll update my predix to include Hamaguchi in Screenplay (I already had Drive My Car in Picture and Director, so it only makes sense) which means removing West Side Story (that's been underperforming by missing big Editing and Cinematography noms, so it might not be that strong, even though I love it). And I'll replace Stewart with Haim.

[soundchaser]

Renate Reinsve being nominated is not something I expected. Fingers crossed.

[domino harvey]

I ain't updating shit, this changes nothing

[Never Cursed]

Agreed; I loved Titane and Drive My Car and disliked a lot of the more conventional baity stuff this year, but it would take a pretty high level of inaccuracy on the part of the more visible predictions for those films to wind up in the main categories (remember that Titane couldn't even get Picture or Actor nominations in its home country)

[domino harvey]

Also, like, is anyone really surprised that a Lucille Ball biopic didn’t land in Britain, where Ball does not have the extensive cultural cachet she has here?

[Apperson]

It's worth pointing out that Director and the Acting Categories are the jury system categories which are the ones to read less into, so that would say to me that Titane still isn't happening.

Drive My Car on the otherhand was still able to get into Adapted Screenplay which shows it does have some broader support, and given that the Academy's directors branch is more international I will predict it there at least.

Also, like, is anyone really surprised that a Lucille Ball biopic didn’t land in Britain, where Ball does not have the extensive cultural cachet she has here?

Actually in non-jury categories Being the Ricardos got into Screenplay AND Score, so I'm MORE likely to include it for various Oscar categories.

[domino harvey]

I think Drive My Car is all but a lock for a screenplay Oscar nom, but I’m not yet convinced it will be one of the two open Best Director noms. Wouldn’t be shocked if it or Almodovar or Sorrentino made it into Director even though I didn’t predict any of them, but I’m skeptical that the quietest of that trio is the one that makes it

[dekadetia]

I wonder too whether Drive My Car is a beneficiary of greater exposure in the UK, where it's been on BFI streaming for a while. Screeners and limited theatrical are still the only way to see it in the US.

[Pavel]

I think Drive My Car is all but a lock for a screenplay Oscar nom, but I’m not yet convinced it will be one of the two open Best Director noms. Wouldn’t be shocked if it or Almodovar or Sorrentino made it into Director even though I didn’t predict any of them, but I’m skeptical that the quietest of that trio is the one that makes it

The quietest but easily the most talked about and critically acclaimed. Best Film winners at NYFCC and LAFCA have never missed a BP nom at the Oscars (throw in NSFC too) so I think there's enough hype to at least make him this year's Pawlikowski or Vinterberg. And Screenplay + Director should result in a BP nom when there's a wide open tenth slot. Almodovar did win Screenplay and get a Director nom without Talk to Her getting a BP nom, but it def would've in a field of 10

[domino harvey]

Allegedly Almodovar’s film played very well this year with a lot of Academy members, so it may overperform. Foxcatcher had both noms (and more) without Best Picture

[therewillbeblus]

Allegedly Almodovar’s film played very well this year with a lot of Academy members, so it may overperform

Yeah, the only update I made based on today's noms was to bump Parallel Mothers into the International Film category

[domino harvey]

Allegedly Almodovar’s film played very well this year with a lot of Academy members, so it may overperform

Yeah, the only update I made based on today's noms was to bump Parallel Mothers into the International Film category

You should bump it out, it’s not eligible in that category!

[therewillbeblus]

You'd think they'd make an exception for Almodovar, sigh

Thanks for the info!

[domino harvey]

Korean film magazine FILO posted their best of 2021 coverage and the lists of Bong Joon-ho and Ryusuke Hamaguchi popped up.

Bong’s best films of 2021:

∙ Don't Look Up
∙ Drive My Car
∙ Flee
∙ Sundown
∙ Sorry We Missed You (2019)
∙ The Mitchells vs. the Machines
∙ Happening (L'événement)
∙ Sewing Sisters

He also listed Hamaguchi’s 5-hour opus “Happy Hour” (2015) as one of the best things he’s seen the last year.

Also, let us not forget that Bong was President of the Venice jury in September. The Golden Lion winner, Audrey Diwan’s “Happening,” appears on his list, but so does Michel Franco’s excellent “Sundown.”

Hamaguchi Ryūsuke's best films of 2021 veer much more towards the arthouse, and it seems as though, much like the rest of Europe, Kelly Reichardt’s cinema is being discovered by Hamaguchi.

∙ Benedetta
∙ Isabella
∙ Haruhara San's Recorder
∙ Third Time Lucky
∙ Meek's Cutoff (2010)
∙ Old Joy (2006)
∙ First Cow
∙ Undine
∙ Bad Luck Banging or Loony Porn
∙ Memoria

[Toland's Mitchell]

Picture:

Being the Ricardos
Belfast
CODA
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

Actor:

Bradley Cooper
Benedict Cumberbatch
Andrew Garfield
Will Smith
Denzel Washington

Actress:

Nicole Kidman
Jessica Chastain
Lady Gaga
Penelope Cruz
Olivia Colman

Supporting Actress:

Caitroina Balfe
Cate Blanchett
Ariana DuBose
Kirsten Dunst
Aunjanue Ellis

Supporting Actor:

Bradley Cooper
Ciaran Hinds
Troy Kotsur
Kodi Smit-McPhee
J.K. Simmons

Director:

Paul Thomas Anderson
Jane Campion
Kenneth Branagh
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi
Denis Villeneuve

Original Screenplay:

Licorice Pizza
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Being the Ricardos

Adapted Screenplay:

CODA
Drive My Car
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story

International Feature:

Drive My Car
Flee
Worst Person in the World
A Hero
Hand of God

Animated Feature

Luca
Encanto
The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Flee
Raya and the Last Dragon

Documentary Feature:

Attica
Flee
The Rescue
Simple as Water
The Summer of Soul

Cinematography:

Dune
Tragedy of Macbeth
The Power of the Dog
Belfast
Nightmare Alley

Production Design:

Dune
Nightmare Alley
The French Dispatch
Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

Makeup/Hair:

Dune
Cruella
House of Gucci
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
The Suicide Squad

Costume:

Cruella
Dune
West Side Story
House of Gucci
Nightmare Alley

Sound:

Dune
No Time to Die
West Side Story
The Matrix Resurrections
Last Night in Soho

Editing:

Belfast
Don't Look Up
Dune
The Power of the Dog
No Time to Die

Visual Effects:

Dune
Spider-Man: No Way Home
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
Black Widow

Score:

Dune
The Power of the Dog
Don't Look Up
The French Dispatch
King Richard

Song:

"No Time to Die"
"Just Look Up"
“Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)”
“Dos Oruguitas”
“Be Alive”

Live Action Short:

The Long Goodbye
When The Sun Sets
Frimas
Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
Under the Heavens

Animated Short:

Namoo
Us Again
Robin Robin
Bestia
The Windshield Wiper

Documentary Short:

Terror Contagion
The Queen of Basketball
Audible
Camp Confidential
The Facility

[Apperson]

DarkImbecile, I've updated my post with the shorts categories.

And I apologise because despite really really not wanting to, I also updated various other categories so you'll have to look at my submissions again. In particular I removed The Lost Daughter everywhere besides Coleman, put Drive My Car in all three relevant above the line categories and had another crack at the mess that is Film Editing.

[DarkImbecile]

Thanks Apperson! Going forward, it might be a good idea for anyone making changes to highlight any new nomination predictions in RED so I don't skip over a nomination and have to revise my scoring multiple times

[Pavel]

I will make final updates on my predix today, should I highlight only the changes I make today or stuff that I changed a few days ago after BAFTA (like adding Haim)?

EDIT: Oops, sorry, "going forward" should clearly answer my question ](*,)

[Apperson]

I feel really self-conscious about micro managing my picks, but I've put Jesse Plemons in my predicitons as leaving Jamie Dornan in would be malpractice at this point.

[domino harvey]

Updated my original post with shorts predictions, which I have definitely thought a lot about and didn’t just look at GoldDerby for