Awards Season 2020

[Matt]

It's just that many seem to believe this is a weaker batch of nominees because of "all the movies" that got pushed back to 2021 due to the pandemic. But besides the Anderson film and maybe West Side Story, what other Oscar hopefuls got pushed back?

Plenty. Dune, In the Heights, Taylor Sheridan’s Those Who Wish Me Dead, Soderbergh's No Sudden Move, Disney's live-action Hunchback of Notre Dame, The Little Mermaid, and/or Peter Pan & Wendy, George Miller's Three Thousand Years of Longing, Mélanie Laurent's The Nightingale, Paul Schraeder's The Card Counter, Guillermo del Toro's Nightmare Alley, Baz Luhrmann's Elvis (god help us), Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog, Joel Coen's The Tragedy of Macbeth, Adam Mackay's Don't Look Up, Ridley Scott's The Last Duel...and those are just some of the films that were already in production (or very close to it) that got delayed.

[therewillbeblus]

Mike Mills' C'mon C'mon was finished and surely would have/will score some noms given the premise and with Phoenix attached, not to mention Mills' talents. Also I think PTA and potentially David O. Russell's (though I may be making that up, since we were comparing his production-to-delivery timeline to PTA's in our pre-COVID musings) films could have entered production and been ready in time.

[DarkImbecile]

At the WGAs, Borat wins Adapted Screenplay and Promising Young Woman wins Original Screenplay. Hearty congratulations to twbb

[therewillbeblus]

I enjoyed Sorkin's script as a self-conscious exaggeration of the kind of social justice wish fulfillment punchlines only found in artifice, but it's not much more than that kind of cartoonish gratification done really well (and I did like the movie a lot under the umbrella of what it is).

This is excellent, hopeful news though. If Fennell and Mulligan actually both take home statues we can finally rub some of the stain out of 2020.

[hearthesilence]

It's just that many seem to believe this is a weaker batch of nominees because of "all the movies" that got pushed back to 2021 due to the pandemic. But besides the Anderson film and maybe West Side Story, what other Oscar hopefuls got pushed back?

Plenty. Dune, In the Heights, Taylor Sheridan’s Those Who Wish Me Dead, Soderbergh's No Sudden Move, Disney's live-action Hunchback of Notre Dame, The Little Mermaid, and/or Peter Pan & Wendy, George Miller's Three Thousand Years of Longing, Mélanie Laurent's The Nightingale, Paul Schraeder's The Card Counter, Guillermo del Toro's Nightmare Alley, Baz Luhrmann's Elvis (god help us), Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog, Joel Coen's The Tragedy of Macbeth, Adam Mackay's Don't Look Up, Ridley Scott's The Last Duel...and those are just some of the films that were already in production (or very close to it) that got delayed.

Looking this over, I get the feeling next year's Oscars is going to be big, brassy and garish, especially compared to this year.

[Brian C]

We can only hope!

I’m 5/8 of my way through this year’s Best Pic nominees and frankly I could use a little more garishness.

[soundchaser]

Has anyone else started putting together their Oscars ballot yet? I’ve seen exactly 0 of this year’s nominees, but I enjoyed guessing last year and would be happy to do the same again if we can.

[dda1996a]

We can only hope!

I’m 5/8 of my way through this year’s Best Pic nominees and frankly I could use a little more garishness.

I could have used anything more to be honest, finished them all last week and this is by far the weakest batch of BP nominees I can remember. The only good thing is that we have a pretty wide range of demographics represented (two females, two asians, multiple black made films) but I really didn't much enjoy most of them.

[DarkImbecile]

Has anyone else started putting together their Oscars ballot yet? I’ve seen exactly 0 of this year’s nominees, but I enjoyed guessing last year and would be happy to do the same again if we can.

I’d be happy to compile a sheet tracking everyone’s guesses if people are interested; show of hands?

[therewillbeblus]

I'm definitely up for it (I always make a ballot regardless), though I'd like to wait on compiling those, per usual, until closer to the ceremony. I'd also be interested in the same "prize" of the winner picking a film for the other participants to watch and write about. Speaking of: DI, are there any stragglers left who need to see/post on Portrait of a Lady on Fire or Sunset?

[DarkImbecile]

I'll probably just make anyone who participated last year but hasn't posted on Portrait (or Sunset, for a certain moderator) ineligible, unless I get a convincing pandemic/unemployment/general 2020 chaos excuse.

[soundchaser]

Well, that would be me, apparently! I've seen Portrait, but it's been a while. (And my only contribution in that thread is a comment on the title's translation.)

[swo17]

(And my only contribution in that thread is a comment on the title's translation.)

That counts

[domino harvey]

I'll probably just make anyone who participated last year but hasn't posted on Portrait (or Sunset, for a certain moderator) ineligible, unless I get a convincing pandemic/unemployment/general 2020 chaos excuse.

[therewillbeblus]

SAG Winners

Outstanding performance by a cast in a motion picture
The Trial of the Chicago 7

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a leading role
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a leading role
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a supporting role
Youn Yuh-jung, Minari

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a supporting role
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

Outstanding performance by an ensemble in a comedy series
Schitt's Creek

Outstanding performance by an ensemble in a drama series
The Crown

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a miniseries or television movie
Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen's Gambit

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a miniseries or television movie
Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much Is True

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a comedy series
Catherine O'Hara, Schitt's Creek

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a comedy series
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso

Outstanding performance by a male actor in a drama series
Jason Bateman, Ozark

Outstanding performance by a female actor in a drama series
Gillian Anderson, The Crown

Outstanding stunt ensemble in a comedy or drama series
The Mandalorian

Outstanding stunt ensemble in a motion picture
Wonder Woman 1984

[therewillbeblus]

I can't remember the last time a top category was anyone's game, but Best Actress is shaping up to be a true nailbiter (well, except for Kirby)

[Pavel]

Until now, I thought the clear frontrunner was Mulligan, but now it's pretty wild. None of the three winners so far (Day — Globes, Davis — SAG, Mulligan — Critic's Choice) even got nominated for the BAFTA, so I think Kirby has a decent shot there (though the hype is clearly absent).
Supporting Actress seemed like the more exciting category, but at this point it looks like Youn is the frontrunner, with Bakalova close behind.

[domino harvey]

From what I gather on a certain other awards forum, Tom O'Neill of Gold Derby apparently leaked the SAG winners by updating his predictions to the winning slate minutes before they were publicly announced

[therewillbeblus]

Until now, I thought the clear frontrunner was Mulligan, but now it's pretty wild. None of the three winners so far (Day — Globes, Davis — SAG, Mulligan — Critic's Choice) even got nominated for the BAFTA, so I think Kirby has a decent shot there (though the hype is clearly absent).
Supporting Actress seemed like the more exciting category, but at this point it looks like Youn is the frontrunner, with Bakalova close behind.

Youn has it in the bag. The only top categories with any surprise left are actress and original screenplay, coincidentally the only two I have a stake in

[soundchaser]

I think there could be a surprise at Best Picture like last year (there seems to be lots of momentum behind The Trial of Chicago 7), but we'll see what happens at the BAFTAs.

[domino harvey]

I think Nomadland is a film everyone assumes is the front runner but no one seems all that passionate about. Thing is, I'm not sure what film this year anyone is passionate about save perhaps PYW, which I really can't see wining.

[knives]

The question is what film is Hollywood passionate about. I remember del Toro’s win was a surprise to most, but the trades and secret ballots were filled with people having a personal stake to it. I could definitely see Trial working like that for a subset of voters.

[soundchaser]

I think we'd have a clearer picture if Nomadland had been eligible for the WGA Awards. That's throwing a monkey wrench into my predictions right now. (If it loses at the ASC Awards I'll be comfortable saying it's no longer the front runner.)

[therewillbeblus]

Yeah though with the ranked system in the Oscars now, there are more opportunities for the safe pick to win vs a film with the most passionate fan base gaining momentum. Green Book is a prime example of that- even those who like it should admit it had no loud spirit campaigning to the finish line. Parasite had both passion and was a film that everyone at least liked, but I’d wager the latter pattern is the reason it came out ahead. If any film is going to upset Nomadland I’m going to bet on Minari because Hollywood honors the progressive zeitgeist (see: The Salesman beating Toni Erdmann for solely political reasons).

[knives]

And being a better film on every account.