Awards Season 2020

[tenia]

AFAIK, it toured a ton during the summer before having an opening on October 21st and theaters closing on Oct 30th. Gaumont still hoped to basically open it again in January but since theaters didnt open, they obviously didnt and are still expecting to be able to have it have a truer theatrical run. In any case, it isn't on video anywhere yet, being physical or VOD and there are no dates for any of those.

[domino harvey]

Oscar noms are announced tomorrow. My predix:

BEST PICTURE

the Father
the Mauritanian
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
the Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST DIRECTOR

Lee Isaac Chung
Emerald Fennell
David Fincher
Aaron Sorkin
Chloe Zhao

BEST ACTRESS

Viola Davis
Yeri Han
Vanessa Kirby
Frances McDormand
Carey Mulligan

BEST ACTOR

Riz Ahmed
Chadwick Boseman
Anthony Hopkins
Tahar Rahim
Steven Yeun

BEST SUP ACTRESS

Maria Bakalova
Olivia Colman
Jodie Foster
Amanda Seyfried
Yuh-Jung Youn

BEST SUP ACTOR

Chadwick Boseman
Sacha Baron Cohen
Daniel Kaluuya
Jared Leto
Paul Raci

BEST ADAPT SCREENPLAY

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
the Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Nomadland
One Night in Miami

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
the Trial of the Chicago 7

[therewillbeblus]

I'll play

BEST PICTURE

The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
The Trial of the Chicago 7

BEST DIRECTOR

Lee Isaac Chung
Emerald Fennell
David Fincher
Aaron Sorkin
Chloe Zhao

BEST ACTRESS

Viola Davis
Vanessa Kirby
Frances McDormand
Carey Mulligan
Zendaya

BEST ACTOR

Riz Ahmed
Chadwick Boseman
Anthony Hopkins
Delroy Lindo
Steven Yeun

BEST SUP ACTRESS

Maria Bakalova
Ellen Burstyn
Olivia Colman
Amanda Seyfried
Yuh-Jung Youn

BEST SUP ACTOR

Sacha Baron Cohen
Daniel Kaluuya
Alan Kim
Leslie Odom Jr.
Paul Raci

BEST ADAPT SCREENPLAY

The Father
Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The White Tiger

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Mank
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

[Pavel]

Yeah, I'll play too

BEST PICTURE
Nomadland
Chicago 7
Minari
One Night in Miami
Promising Young Woman
Mank
Ma Rainey
Sound of Metal
The Father
(Prob won't be 10 noms, but if they're somehow 10 I'll go with Judas and the Black Messiah)

BEST DIRECTOR
Chloe Zhao
David Fincher
Emerald Fennel
Lee Isaac Chung
Aaron Sorkin

BEST ACTRESS
Carey Mulligan
Frances McDormand
Viola Davis
Andra Day
Vanessa Kirby

BEST ACTOR
Chadwick Boseman
Riz Ahmed
Anthony Hopkins
Steven Yeun
Tahar Rahim
(I think Oldman actually has a better shot, but I want to wish a Rahim nom into existence + Foster's win at GG probably increased the number of voters who watched it)

BEST SUP ACTRESS
Yuh-Jung Youn
Olivia Colman
Maria Bakalova (I'm not 100% confident in a nom, but if she gets in, she prob has the best shot to win)
Glenn Close
Amanda Seyfried

BEST SUP ACTOR
Daniel Kaluuya
Leslie Odom, Jr.
Sacha Baron Cohen
Paul Raci
Chadwick Boseman

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Chicago 7
Promising Young Woman
Minari
Mank
Sound of Metal

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
Ma Rainey
The Father
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

[Randall Maysin]

How can The Mauritanian be eligible? Isn't it decidedly a 2021 film? Have the rules changed?

[Pavel]

Yeah, films from the first two months of 2021 are eligible (just this time)

[Randall Maysin]

Really? That's weird, what's the reason for that do you know? Also, I wonder if the Academy will ever consider expanding their number of acting nominations, probably not and maybe that's for the best. It's just that a quick survey of the big potential contenders for these categories turns up like, twenty or more potentially quite deserving possibilities this year for each acting category. It seems overstuffed by a substantially larger margin than almost any previous year!

[domino harvey]

That's how Judas and the Black Messiah is also eligible. I think people have been underselling how popular the Mauritanian is alleged to be with the foreign voting block, which could easily catapult it to more representation here with a much wider Academy presence... but I could just as easily be wrong and it gets zero noms. I do think it and Sound of Metal are going to way over-perform though, and as seen by my predix, I think Mank's non-existent enthusiasm is going to keep it out of most of the big awards, save Fincher's

[therewillbeblus]

Really? That's weird, what's the reason for that do you know?

COVID-19

[domino harvey]

It's also so weird to be getting Oscar nom announcements on a Monday

[Randall Maysin]

So...it's because releases were delayed by Covid-19? And...somehow the announcements also have to be delayed? By one day? Mkay, that's pretty strange. But perhaps I am missing something here...lol.

[domino harvey]

The new distribution necessities mean the Oscars opened up the window to allow more movies into contention. As to why they chose a Monday to announce, they prob just wanted an easy to remember date (March 15), though if so they failed, I've had to Google it like a a half dozen times in the last couple months

[knives]

They really just want Caesar dead.

[Pavel]

That's how Judas and the Black Messiah is also eligible. I think people have been underselling how popular the Mauritanian is alleged to be with the foreign voting block, which could easily catapult it to more representation here with a much wider Academy presence... but I could just as easily be wrong and it gets zero noms. I do think it and Sound of Metal are going to way over-perform though, and as seen by my predix, I think Mank's non-existent enthusiasm is going to keep it out of most of the big awards, save Fincher's

Well The Mauritanian got in the Bafta top 5 and I imagine there's some overlap, so it's def my number 11 or 12. And Sound of Metal is looking to get itself quite a nice set of noms with Editing, Sound, Actor, Supporting Actor, Screenplay and Picture

[DarkImbecile]

Full list of nominees

Excellent work by the Directors branch in dropping Sorkin for Vinterberg

[Fiery Angel]

According to woke Twitter, they dropped Regina King

[Pavel]

I would've preferred King over Sorkin, but Vinterberg is clearly the best choice

[Apperson]

I think that these noms are pretty good this year based; however Best Visual Effects is a tire-fire, Tenet is the only one I would call acceptable.

[swo17]

Man, Kelly Reichardt's just never gonna get in, is she?

[Apperson]

Gotta make room for Borat! (Sidenote: someone should time how long it took to read that one nomination)

[therewillbeblus]

I like Vinterberg but aside from the final scene, which is in my mind undoubtedly the isolated reason for his nomination, I didn’t think Druk was a particularly well-directed film. Its few strengths stemmed from the script (which was also a bit contrived but had some intelligent ideas sewn in) and the acting.

The academy missed an opportunity to give the last slot to King or Reichardt, and have women outnumber men in the directing category.

[Pavel]

I never considered Reichardt as a possibility, but she would've definitely been in my top 5

[therewillbeblus]

How does Mank lead nominations with special attention expectedly to the technical awards, and get snubbed from Best Editing? That should have been Mank’s award to lose

[Brian C]

Man, I’m so out of it this year that I had never even heard of MINARI until this morning.

[Never Cursed]

Editing has never made sense in terms of its awards or noms (see: Bohemian Rhapsody, a film which inspired memes about its bad editing, winning, Birdman not being nominated)

RIP to The Mauritanian and Malcolm & Marie as well (though I expected the latter)