Tenet (Christopher Nolan, 2020)

[willoneill]

I think many of us are trying to stay in the day to remain sane, and speculating about the potential depressing consequences of the problematic way our country has been handling the virus, an entire year into the future, simply isn't helpful to think about whatsoever

That's what we should all do, and I didn't raise the question to depress anyone and I do sincerely apologize for that. The purpose of my question was to put forth the idea that if WB was confident in a summer 2021 movie season, yeah they'll wait (and I would to). But if they're not confident, then I think it's a "bird in the hand..." situation.

[therewillbeblus]

Yeah sorry I must have misinterpreted the question to be aimed at Americans specifically pertaining to not handling this well (not that I'm disputing that, quite the contrary) but either way, I think to actually answer your question but still hold my position, we don't have any idea and need to play this by ear. The information we do have is that now is not a good time, and our projections of theatre openings have sadly been wrong. All we can be confident about is the here and now being a poor choice, but I do think that speculating pessimistically about next summer is unnecessary and unhelpful regardless. To the "bird in the hand" point, it's risk averse either way. Suppose we were not optimistic about next summer, would we just say 'fuck it' and release it now? No, we'd wait and see, and hope and pray, and be cautiously optimistic, like we're doing.

[willoneill]

... but I do think that speculating pessimistically about next summer is unnecessary and unhelpful regardless. To the "bird in the hand" point, it's risk averse either way. Suppose we were not optimistic about next summer, would we just say 'fuck it' and release it now? No, we'd wait and see, and hope and pray, and be cautiously optimistic, like we're doing.

There's no "we" here, there's WB and its financing partners. They have to speculate, and since for my particular work I also have to speculate, if they're at least as smart as I am, they would be irresponsible to be optimistic about next summer. "Facts don't care about ..." blah blah blah. They'll get as much money as they can within the allowances of whatever agreement they can get (or need to get) with Nolan. It would irresponsible to their shareholders/partners not to at this point.

[therewillbeblus]

Okay, sure, there's a purely logical angle there but they are also considering the empathic angle as a reflection of our emotional states and judgments, which carries its own logic and can be inclusive to their business mindset. To align with the American people and support a release that holds out for a potentially strong fiscal return as well as validates that it's just plain unsafe for us to be there and that we're not ready, is smart too. That's where "they" blend with us to become "we" - the film industry is a business, yes, but it's also a business that exists by being in touch with its audiences. Plus you asked if Americans were optimistic or pessimistic about a summer release, so that's my answer- to clarify, I think that there's enough unknown to gamble waiting rather than releasing a huge blockbuster now in theatres in the U.S. following the surging increases in areas where things have opened up drastically, which basically says Fuck Your Safety. No studio wants to be "us vs. them" - they want to be "we."

[Brian C]

Well, for my part, I think this kind of speculation is enormously helpful. For one thing, from a social messaging standpoint, "we have to put up with this massive disruption in our lives on an indefinite basis with no end in sight and it's depressing to think about when it might end" is probably the worst position to take to get people to willingly comply with virus-suppression policies. It promotes fatalism and hopelessness and all around makes "fuck it, I'll do what I want" seem like a more appealing and even logical attitude.

And secondly, I think that one of the reasons we're in this position is that, as a country, because of our willfully negligent leadership, we've never had much of a discourse centered around what we're willing to put up with in the short- to medium-term and what the pros/cons would be. Especially now that we've let the pandemic get out of hand, what will we need to do to curb it, and what kind of plan can we put in place to make that happen? It's never too late to change course, even if changing course gets harder and harder because of how we've handled things so far, but you can't have that discussion without some good-faith speculation of what the world will look like 3 months or 6 months or a year or two down the road, both with and without stringent containment measures. In short, I think the only way to stay sane isn't to hide from the reality of where we are and try not to think about it, but to imagine a better, saner future, and advocate for it.

But to answer willoneil's question - 70/30? Maybe higher. I sort of think that even if the pandemic is raging here by next summer, it'll largely be because the majority of people have just given up and decided to damn the torpedoes, so to speak. It will be almost impossible to keep any political support for lockdowns and closures for that long - hell, we barely made it two weeks in this country before the seeds of rebellion took root and things are falling apart now even in more cautious, Democratic areas. I sort of think that if theaters were open and studios wanted to release their big blockbusters right now, they'd be shockingly successful.

[therewillbeblus]

Of course, though I don't see how that's mutually exclusive from a position of cautious optimism with room to be flexible if the virus doesn't mold to our expectations. My issue was in what I took to be a question aimed at a pessimistic look at the future. Your point about the indefinite attitude is in line with a call to look forward to things. Maybe you look to tangible far-out predictions to promote hope, but some people pray and meditate, focus on the here and now, and remain cautiously optimistic without falling into "fatalism and hopelessness." I don't see how a bunch of us on this message board thinking a year ahead about "what if theatres aren't open" is helpful- that's all, but clearly you do, for the same end goal as my own stance gives me. Thinking about the future to help motivate us is helpful, yes, so choosing to be optimistic with both realistic and idealistic thinking, is a great thing- though for me, becoming preoccupied about the statistics of that motivation becoming a reality is not. The movie theatre industry promoting that hope is a strong way to advocate for it, and I still say that their industry taking a position of "now isn't the right time, but we are planning on next summer," and holding that as an optimistic goal, is very hopeful.

[Brian C]

I'm not even talking about hope, really - just the need to plan. Our response to the virus has been a mix of wishing it away, assuming a magic bullet is around the corner, and/or the epidemiological equivalent of finally trying to put out fires weeks after they've started after the smoke got too bad to breathe. At no point has their been any kind of actual plan, like there plainly has been in other places that have been more successful to date than we have.

So in that sense, yes, I think "what if theatres aren't open" is a helpful scenario to think about. Far more people need to be thinking about what things will be like in a year, IMO.

[therewillbeblus]

I think a mix can be helpful. I don't think we need to think in binary terms where we're either passively suppressing or obsessively looking ahead in planning, but my issue was really with trying to figure out from our limited vantage points what won't be open next year. I incorrectly assumed it to be a heavily problem-focused question, and instead framed it as "what if theatres are open," with hope and an awareness that they may not be, which is important to sit with, while choosing to hope that they will be. To me, it read like folks saying "Do people think that Donald Trump will still be president next year" -yes, we need to be collectively cognizant of the importance of the election as a country, and focusing on what we can do to vote and advocate with tangible action steps to do our part to not remain complacent is vital; but it does me no good to vaguely muse on my fear about a "what if" that I have little control over. I see a difference, and I think you're seeing this as a macro-focused question that the general population should be asking on a broad scale, and I'm thinking that posing it on this message board, the way I interpreted it as a negative proposal, isn't helpful. I also think that while you're right that future-oriented thinking is helpful for some, there are people with mental health issues- including a significant portion of people with debilitating generalized anxiety- where it is against their best interest to preoccupy their thoughts with what will be happening a year from now. Again, a healthy mixture of considering the reality of the situation we're in while remaining present is how some of us practice safety and motivate ourselves to get through the day. Some people become flooded thinking in faraway, concrete terms and find their strongest successes in advocacy and participation by focusing their energy on the given moment, while others thrive on that specific future-oriented thinking. All-or-nothing thinking is not what I'm advocating for, it's specifically what I'm advocating against. Maybe I wasn't clear in my initial responses to the question asked, that I admittedly misinterpreted, but I don't think we're actually in disagreement here, we're talking on different scales. We certainly agree that sticking our fingers in our ears and blocking out the noise of the question itself is not the way to go, but there are many different ways to confront the 'what if's of the future.

[captveg]

WB is going to attempt to bring back the older roadshow model, touring the film across the US as theaters can open in different locations. It may be their only theatrical release for the remainder of the year, kicking Wonder Woman 1984 and Dune into 2021, in order to allow Tenet to "tour" for 3-4 months.

[felipe]

Is there a reason why Warner couldn't wait until next year to release the film? Or WW84, for that matter (which will probably be way more profitable)? I'm sure they'd rather be making those millions now than in a year, but they have enough money to get by until then, right?

Honest question: how confident are any Americans reading this that there will be a Summer 2021 movie season in the U.S.?

I'm not American, but I think theaters will be open by Summer 2021. Most businesses will reopen as soons as they're allowed to. We can see that, despite the number of new cases, a lot of businesses have already been allowed to, even some that rely on large attendance like theme parks.

[The Fanciful Norwegian]

Is there a reason why Warner couldn't wait until next year to release the film? Or WW84, for that matter (which will probably be way more profitable)? I'm sure they'd rather be making those millions now than in a year, but they have enough money to get by until then, right?

I think it's as simple as Nolan wanting to have the first big event movie to hit theaters since the pandemic came along. With theaters reopening elsewhere (including China), studios are going to be very tempted to take some of their tentpoles off the bench so the balance sheets will look slightly less horrendous, even if theaters in the U.S. remain mostly shuttered. So WB needs to get out in front of that to keep Nolan happy. (I do think it's possible WW84 gets pushed to next year, but I kinda hope it doesn't, since Hollywood movies are the biggest draw in most international markets and the reopened theaters there need more than re-releases and domestic films to bring audiences back in.)

[Nasir007]

WB is going to attempt to bring back the older roadshow model, touring the film across the US as theaters can open in different locations. It may be their only theatrical release for the remainder of the year, kicking Wonder Woman 1984 and Dune into 2021, in order to allow Tenet to "tour" for 3-4 months.

Tenet is the wrong movie for a roadshow model. It ain't no Gone With The Wind - be that as it may.

Meaning movies which are so heavily dependant upon twists or spoilers or what have you. These sort of movies are best suited for day and date.

I could see something like The French Dispatch working in a roadshow model since it is a movie that will be seen for itself and not for the "spoilers". Maybe even Hamilton might have been suited to that. It has a built in intermission too.

West Side Story - that's another candidate - very well suited to a roadshow model - nothing to spoil there.

I might put in Wonder Woman 1984 in there too. Though there are some spoilers but nothing earth-shattering. Mulan too.

[therewillbeblus]

Though there are some spoilers but nothing earth-shattering. Mulan too.

Wait til you find out that Mulan

Spoiler

is actually a girl disguised as a boy

[The Fanciful Norwegian]

International rollout starts on August 26th, with a U.S. release in whatever theaters are open starting on September 3rd.

[mfunk9786]

So no theaters, then.

[Rayon Vert]

News item in Quebec that it’s definitely opening August 27 and there are opened theatres that will show it.

[The Fanciful Norwegian]

So no theaters, then.

There's about 400 drive-ins in the U.S., and while not all of those are open, they account for the bulk of the U.S. box office these days and smaller distributors have been putting out new movies for them to screen (along with studio re-releases of stuff like Jurassic Park and Men in Black). There are also some conventional theaters operating in jurisdictions that don't give a fuck. Unfortunately I'm in one of those, but we do have a few drive-ins as well. But TBH if I do head to a drive-in on Labor Day weekend it'll be for Bill & Ted 3 instead of this.

[mfunk9786]

News item in Quebec that it’s definitely opening August 27 and there are opened theatres that will show it.

If (big if) LQ and I can legally cross the border that weekend, we'll see you there Rayon Vert. We've already driven up to Manhattan simply to pick up an order of pastries and then drive them the two hours back home, so we're not beyond that kind of lunacy with absolutely nothing else to do.

[therewillbeblus]

This is enticing, it’s only a six hour drive from here and I’ve driven that far (in traffic) to NYC for other films before. I’d probably join that party

[beamish14]

Quebec has no 70mm-equipped theaters, right? I think the only one left in Canada is in Saskatoon

[mfunk9786]

This is enticing, it’s only a six hour drive from here and I’ve driven that far (in traffic) to NYC for other films before. I’d probably join that party

Let's give each other, and by extension the great nation of Canada, COVID-19, by all meeting up for a French subtitled screening of Tenet

[therewillbeblus]

The sad thing is a solid chunk of America would probably be unironically down with that plan until coming across "subtitles" at the end, and then abandon ship

[Rayon Vert]

In the larger Montreal region, there’s as many English screenings as dubbed French so no need for subtitles!

The article has the Guzzo cinema chain owner saying he convinced Warners that there are enough IMAX theatres in Canada, and that he himself has 9, as well as regular cinemas, so that Warners should consider them part of the international market.

But he added that he had to harden his tone a bit with them and remind them they need a passport to cross the border and we’re not their colony!

I can’t link the article right now because I’m on Tapatalk and limited in my ability to navigate it.

Folks, I’d love to meet you all here but I’ll probably still be too scared of Covid to join you!

[bradass]

Quebec has no 70mm-equipped theaters, right? I think the only one left in Canada is in Saskatoon

A multiplex in downtown Montreal doesn't have 70mm IMAX, but does have normal 70mm, at least for the recent WB 70mm releases. It also won't be screened with subtitles, as I think has been said here already. English or dubbed.

[The Fanciful Norwegian]

Quebec has no 70mm-equipped theaters, right? I think the only one left in Canada is in Saskatoon

The Banque Scotia in Montreal (I assume this is what bradass referred to) has a 70mm projector, but there's also several more in Toronto: the TIFF Bell Lightbox, the Cineplex Varsity, and the Kingsway. The Park in Vancouver is also 70mm-equipped. The number goes up further if you include IMAX 15/70 venues.