Business Models: Twilight Time vs. Other Boutique Labels

[domino harvey]

In the wake of Kino Lorber and even Olive licensing cheap Blu-rays from the same studios as TT at markedly lower actual prices and available via conventional retailers, TT has become harder to justify. Catching them on sale put you at about ~$22 a pop when shipping is factored in for big orders, and that's the cheapest you'll get. Not horrible, but in this market, not great or laudable either

[PfR73]

At least, after an initial bumpy period, Twilight Time got in the habit of carrying over the previous extras from DVD releases of the films they put out, and even began adding new extras. At least 50% of time (probably more), Olive drops some or all of the DVD extras for their Blu-Ray releases. Kino Lorber seems to be doing a good job carrying over existing extras, so I do applaud them for that.

[captveg]

Part of that was Sony reversing their policies on allowing bonus content on titles licensed out to other distributors.

[Noiradelic]

In the wake of Kino Lorber and even Olive licensing cheap Blu-rays from the same studios as TT at markedly lower actual prices and available via conventional retailers, TT has become harder to justify. Catching them on sale put you at about ~$22 a pop when shipping is factored in for big orders, and that's the cheapest you'll get. Not horrible, but in this market, not great or laudable either

Exactly right. As you point out, the boutique label industry has changed since they started, making their business model seem very 2011. Since they've grown quite a bit from their almost-vanity-label origins, it'd be nice if the model evolved as well -- drop the list price at least $5 or allow select retailers to sell and discount their product, do bigger runs on the more popular titles etc.

[captveg]

TT looking at smaller runs for some releases (1500 copies, for example), and they expect 2020 to be the "endgame" for them. Here:

From a DVD Talk web site post came this line:

"TT has also mentioned the possibility of lowering the number of copies from 3000 down to 1500 due to the the decline of sales, so things are always changing."

Has anyone here any supporting information? Seeing the increase of sales on the TT or SAE sites, it seems plausible.

Perhaps Nick could chime in on this.

Nothing much to add --- it is now a matter of common sense. Sales are cratering across the board for every label, although it is a good time for collectors with the product glut far outweighing an audience to buy it. Just as we predicted six years ago, the business has entirely devolved to third party licensees involved in a frenzy for the studios who now realize there is more money to be made in farming stuff out than releasing themselves. Greed though, always becomes a factor and the studios are driving up the licensing fees and advance guarantees in direct contradiction of the waning sales figures. We are entering the final phase of the physical media business with labels toying with more and more limited runs targeting those collectors that are left gamely trying to keep up - it's been a wild ride - and perhaps it will continue for a few years more. When we began TT in 2010 we figured on maybe lasting 5 or 6 years - we're now looking at 2020 as the end game which will mean we lasted 10 - not so bad in the grand scheme of things.

[matrixschmatrix]

Jesus, that's grim. I kind of hope that's a reflection more of the twilight time distribution and pricing model kind of sucking than the industry as a whole- I was under the impression that Criterion, at least, was doin fine, and it seems like Arrow is if anything expanding a bit.

[Ribs]

Is Redman or whoever manages the TT account in a position to make such a bold declaration about the other labels? I've not gotten that impression based on the increasing release rates from Shout, Criterion, and Arrow that sales have slowed at all. I *think* it's just that TT's model just can't sustain itself as a long-term practice; when things literally went on sale once a year it kind of made sense, but now that that have sales all the time I see no reason at all to ever pay their ludicrous prices, not to mention the fact that Indicator seems to be outdoing them with every release.

[domino harvey]

Once Kino Lorber and Olive started cannibalizing TT's releases and selling them for half what TT asked and direct to consumers via regular distro channels, TT's sales surely took a nosedive

[FrauBlucher]

JI was under the impression that Criterion, at least, was doin fine, and it seems like Arrow is if anything expanding a bit.

I wouldn't take Redman's/TT word on how the others are doing. His biz model was doomed from the beginning. He's so arrogant that his suggestion that physical media was ending 5 to 6 years from when he started TT is laughable and incorrect. Now he is giving it the death knell in three years when his company falls by the wayside. He'll be wrong again.

[Brian C]

There's kind of a "no one goes there anymore, it's too crowded" quality to his description of the way licensees are rushing after titles. There's so much enthusiasm for content to release that it's driving up licensing fees! And that's offered up as a failing market? Something doesn't compute in that formulation.

There's probably some truth in what he's saying but his explanation is a garbled mess.

[captveg]

There's kind of a "no one goes there anymore, it's too crowded" quality to his description of the way licensees are rushing after titles.

Agreed.

BTW, to see a literal enacting of that famous idiom go to any Disneyland related message board, wherein Disneyland super-fans bemoan the huge crowds and then struggle to understand why Disney keeps raising theme park prices...

[matrixschmatrix]

I mean if it boils down to 'we were getting away with this because we were getting our titles dirt cheap and nobody was competing with us' then yeah I can see where expanded farming out by the majors would endanger them

[captveg]

And it could be true that for most of these titles 3000 is too large of a run. My understanding is that Shout, Kino, Olive, etc. manage their runs in distribution runs closer to 300 or 500 except for major titles, such as The Thing. (Even Warner Archive titles replicate in such small batches). The other labels also can do subsequent runs if a particular title is a surprise hit. Also, if MisterLime is to be believed, those business models are more about getting certain "packages" of titles wherein they will have some real strong sellers and a myriad of questionable ones.

With the MGM related TT sale, my guess is that this year will see the end of titles they've licensed from them, and that they'll go back to mostly dealing with Sony and Fox, with the occasional rare Rewind or Toei title.

[vidussoni]

Once Kino Lorber and Olive started cannibalizing TT's releases and selling them for half what TT asked and direct to consumers via regular distro channels, TT's sales surely took a nosedive

But those isolated scores!

[TMDaines]

Oh the sweet irony of Twilight Time dying off long before the rest of the industry does. Too good.

[domino harvey]

And it could be true that for most of these titles 3000 is too large of a run. My understanding is that Shout, Kino, Olive, etc. manage their runs in distribution runs closer to 300 or 500 except for major titles, such as The Thing. (Even Warner Archive titles replicate in such small batches). The other labels also can do subsequent runs if a particular title is a surprise hit. Also, if MisterLime is to be believed, those business models are more about getting certain "packages" of titles wherein they will have some real strong sellers and a myriad of questionable ones.

Hard to believe 3000 copies of Pony Soldier didn't fly right out of their warehouse! Seems like if TT really wanted to improve their returns, they should spend the extra buck per unit to have slipcovers go out on the first thousand copies. It'd cost them a dollar more but they'd get nine more back for each sale made around release date instead of during the regular $10 off sales. Given that their audience is almost exactly the same circle as lovers of slips on a Venn diagram, you'd think this would have occurred to them. Then again, this is the same label that tried to sneak a commentary past Woody Allen, so I'm not sure they have any clue what they're doing other than following an outdated model that is dying with them

[knives]

Can something be outdated if it never worked?

[domino harvey]

Ha, good question!

[Minkin]

I've wondered if the specialty home video bubble will eventually pop. How many more specialty labels selling to an ever-dwindling number of consumers can be sustained? Seems like every other week there's some new label who think they're going to be rolling in money. Even friends who bought quite a lot of blus about five years ago have decided its not worth the time/effort. So I must imagine a lot of these cash-grab labels (Film Detective) probably won't last long.

[matrixschmatrix]

I mean, laserdiscs managed to survive for like a decade at $150 per or whatever with, I believe, a much smaller market- as long as blu-rays remain the best, most high fidelity way to watch things at home, I think they're likely to be worth printing, though the wide market may evaporate.

[Cronenfly]

I feel like most of the TT discs have been fairly well produced, with some pretty admirable effort put into select titles (as matrix notes below), but that does not make up for all the inherent limitations of the business model they chose to move forward with (unreasonable MSRP, especially for barebones titles, not making titles more widely available, etc). They could likely fix some of these issues and continue on if they wanted to, but Redman seems like a cut your nose to spite your face kind of fellow to me, so I doubt it.

[matrixschmatrix]

They did actually start adding some decent features, albeit nearly always using the same fairly limited house crew. They've been slowly improving in a number of ways, but I'm guessing the cost of doing so is part of why they're unsustainable now.

[peerpee]

"Sales are cratering across the board for every label" = patently untrue.

[domino harvey]

You must be mistaken, that would imply there was something flawed about their idiotic business model

[tenia]

Who would have guessed the number of their incredible fanboys isnt enough for the label to be sustainable ?