Awards Season 2024

[pianocrash]

I can't remember anything in recent memory that's as shocking as I'm Still Here in Best Picture.

Not quite on topic, but I was just looking at Walter Salles' wiki page and was suprised to learn that he's the
third wealthiest filmmaker (after Spielberg and Lucas!) with an estimated 4.2 billion.

Note: only one of those three people are heirs to Itau Unibanco, as well as being filmmakers (for fun and/or profit!) \:D/

[Finch]

I really hope Animated goes to Flow or Memoirs of a Snail. Pixar has enough Oscars and The Wild Robot isn't anywhere near the same league as the other two films.

[Matt]

Challengers not being nom'd for Score seems odd.

It’s more than odd, it’s scandalous and shameful. The score made that movie. Academy voters must have really hated that movie for it to get nothing at all.

[therewillbeblus]

Their score for Queer was better...

[Monterey Jack]

Emilia Perez getting thirteen noms is akin to Simple Jack in Tropic Thunder being an awards favorite.

[Finch]

I wouldn't start the hand-wringing just yet. It might end up with no awards at all.

[hearthesilence]

Disappointed Hard Truths was completely overlooked. I'm glad Nickel Boys got two major nominations, though I'm surprised it didn't get more, especially Best Director - even though I thought Hale County This Morning, This Evening was a better film, this was one of the best narrative films I've seen in an otherwise underwhelming year. No Other Land is the only nominee I feel passionate about, and I wasn't entirely sure it would get nominated. I hope it goes all the way, and I hope it encourages a major distributor to put it out and hopefully get a substantial audience, and while I'm wishing on the moon, become the catalyst for real change and righting the ship towards peace in the Middle East, but one step at a time....

[The Curious Sofa]

Last year I enjoyed the majority of Best Picture nominations and loved four of them. This year I only feel passionate about Anora and it will probably win nothing. If Emilia Perez sweeps the awards, my mildly positive feelings for it will turn to dislike. Of the films I haven't seen yet, I'm only curious about The Brutalist. I feel about Wicked like a cat about to be given a bath, I bailed twice five minutes into it.

I hope the fact that Flow is also nominated for Best International Feature means that it will win Best Animated Feature. The visual effects nom for Alien Romulus is odd, considering a much-discussed misstep in that regard, though there wasn't much to choose from.

[mfunk9786]

This is the better choice of the two Stan pictures (the other I absolutely detested)

I would not say I detested A Different Man, it had some interesting redeeming qualities around the edges of something pretty amateurish, Stan being one of them. But it's not the better performance, that's for sure.

[pianocrash]

This is the better choice of the two Stan pictures (the other I absolutely detested)

I would not say I detested A Different Man, it had some interesting redeeming qualities around the edges of something pretty amateurish, Stan being one of them. But it's not the better performance, that's for sure.

I really enjoyed the slightly amateurish performances in A Different Man at first, but after about a half hour, it started grinding it's own bones for fuel, cycling the same predicament/ideas with little else to say but the one thing it just kept saying over & over again (remember that thing I just said? Someone is just about to say that thing.....again!).

I still haven't seen The Substance, but at this point, being a Gemini, I just don't know what to expect (arrow punctures my body in 4K resolution).

[domino harvey]

There is some speculation that Gascon's recent comments about fellow nominee Fernanda Torres may result in her suspension (though she worded it as "people working with Fernanda Torres," which could be read either way). I don't think she was going to win anyways, but not a great look for her or the movie (though I still think this wins it)

[Never Cursed]

There is some speculation that Gascon's recent comments about fellow nominee Fernanda Torres may result in her suspension (though she worded it as "people working with Fernanda Torres," which could be read either way). I don't think she was going to win anyways, but not a great look for her or the movie (though I still think this wins it)

Gascon now has much bigger problems thanks to some virulently racist tweets that remained on her Twitter profile until very recently. Among other things, she called Islam an "infection for humanity," asked "how many times will we have to expel the Moors from Spain?," and complained about George Floyd supposedly undeservedly becoming a martyr.

[domino harvey]

She also unbelievably badmouthed the Oscars for their diversity (calling the Oscars an "Afro-Korean" ceremony, which sounds like something the late rohmerin would say), which may be enough to actually get the rather large love train within the industry derailed

[Mark L.]

I always thought the preferential ballot system doomed any chance for Best Picture even before all this Gascon stuff. In the world where it gets the most number ones, even just a smallish group of members reacting to the first round of controversies and thus ranking it last is enough to allow something less controversial to win.

[domino harvey]

Could be a year like when Spotlight won-- a film everyone more or less thought was okay and no one was too upset about winning over the Revenant, which still gets the major runner up prizes. So, Conclave / Corbet (since Audiard might be tarnished)? Buuuuuuuuuuuuut I think we've already seen that the industry loves EP and has almost no awareness of its unpopularity online (which isn't real life, true), so will they even see this?

[knives]

Could be a year like when Spotlight won-- a film everyone more or less thought was okay and no one was too upset about winning over the Revenant, which still gets the major runner up prizes. So, Conclave / Corbet (since Audiard might be tarnished)? Buuuuuuuuuuuuut I think we've already seen that the industry loves EP and has almost no awareness of its unpopularity online (which isn't real life, true), so will they even see this?

I don’t know how real life this counts as, but my wife and sister have referred to EP as that movie everyone dislikes.

[Mark L.]

Could be a year like when Spotlight won-- a film everyone more or less thought was okay and no one was too upset about winning over the Revenant, which still gets the major runner up prizes. So, Conclave / Corbet (since Audiard might be tarnished)? Buuuuuuuuuuuuut I think we've already seen that the industry loves EP and has almost no awareness of its unpopularity online (which isn't real life, true), so will they even see this?

I think that's where we're heading, but with The Brutalist being the "I didn't love it, but I appreciated it" win. Conclave missing director really puts a hamper on it pulling off BP, even Tom McCarthy got in for even less "directing".

Overall, I agree that the EP hate is almost entirely an online only thing, but I think you might underestimate the number of very online voters who rank it last, especially with the Academy going out of its way to invite younger members in the last couple years. I think Europeans (another huge new block of Academy voters) are immune to this kind of stuff though, so I want to see how it does at BAFTAs before completely ruling it out.

I also think Corbet is as close to locked in as possible for Director and that's been the case for a while.

[MV88]

Personally, I don’t think Berger’s snub in Best Director hurts the movie’s chances too much in Best Picture. CODA and Green Book recently won without Best Director nominations, so it’s not nearly as rare an occurrence as it was once.

I think Conclave could easily benefit from the preferential ballot system. The Brutalist, Emilia Perez, and Anora will get plenty of #1 votes, but I imagine they’ll also end up towards the bottom of more voters’ ballots than Conclave will. Plus, I think Conclave could win at BAFTA and/or SAG, in which case it would have to be considered a serious threat even without a Best Director nomination.

Also, regarding the negativity towards Emilia Perez being mostly an online thing, while that is true enough, I think the difference with this movie as opposed to, say, Green Book (which also received a lot of online hate), is that I don’t think it has much appeal among casual movie watchers either. Green Book and to a lesser extent CODA were wildly unpopular Best Picture winners online, but most “regular” people (i.e., non-cinephiles) loved them. I don’t see that crossover appeal happening with Emilia Perez. It really does seem to be *just* the industry that likes it, which is why, despite its 13 nominations, I’m somewhat skeptical it will actually win Best Picture. At the moment, I think Supporting Actress and Original Song are all it gets.

[Mark L.]

Personally, I don’t think Berger’s snub in Best Director hurts the movie’s chances too much in Best Picture. CODA and Green Book recently won without Best Director nominations, so it’s not nearly as rare an occurrence as it was once.

I think Conclave could easily benefit from the preferential ballot system. The Brutalist, Emilia Perez, and Anora will get plenty of #1 votes, but I imagine they’ll also end up towards the bottom of more voters’ ballots than Conclave will. Plus, I think Conclave could win at BAFTA and/or SAG, in which case it would have to be considered a serious threat even without a Best Director nomination.

Also, regarding the negativity towards Emilia Perez being mostly an online thing, while that is true enough, I think the difference with this movie as opposed to, say, Green Book (which also received a lot of online hate), is that I don’t think it has much appeal among casual movie watchers either. Green Book and to a lesser extent CODA were wildly unpopular Best Picture winners online, but most “regular” people (i.e., non-cinephiles) loved them. I don’t see that crossover appeal happening with Emilia Perez. It really does seem to be *just* the industry that likes it, which is why, despite its 13 nominations, I’m somewhat skeptical it will actually win Best Picture. At the moment, I think Supporting Actress and Original Song are all it gets.

Green Book and Coda are good counter-examples, but I think those are different because Farrelly and Heder weren't really predicted to be nominated. I just think the lack of a director nomination suggests a little bit of a softness for Conclave. It also missed a predicted cinematography nomination. I'm not ruling it out, but it doesn't seem to be even half as loved by the Academy as Complete Unknown, which overperformed in at least a couple categories and will probably walk away with at least one SAG.

I'd also push back a little on the casual movie watchers hating EP too thing. I haven't come across many people who have actually seen it, but the people who have (and aren't online) have really enjoyed it. That's different from CODA and Green Book, because I think people actually went out of their way to see those, but I note it because I'm not seeing the hate manifest in the real world. I think your broader point stands though because I'm just not seeing the populist uprising those other two winners had for EP. Ironically enough I am seeing that with Complete Unknown. Might just be a New York thing but people keep bringing this movie up as their favorite.

[domino harvey]

A Complete Unknown is perhaps in a similar position to Conclave, but I have my doubts on it being popular enough with international voters, and it also doesn’t feel “important” enough, which is something a lot of voters consider. I think it also doesn’t win without Chalamet winning, which I doubt is going to happen (despite his entertaining homespun publicity campaign)

[Mark L.]

A Complete Unknown is perhaps in a similar position to Conclave, but I have my doubts on it being popular enough with international voters, and it also doesn’t feel “important” enough, which is something a lot of voters consider. I think it also doesn’t win without Chalamet winning, which I doubt is going to happen (despite his entertaining homespun publicity campaign)

I agree with all of this and more than anything it seems to have just peaked in the voting window. I still think Timmy will win the SAG and a good speech could change the calculus for his chances at least, but if he doesn't it's all over for him and the film. Even then I find it hard to believe the Academy will break one of its acting records for an okay Bob Dylan performance.

[domino harvey]

It's important to note that no one can even vote for another week and a half, so all of EP's potential votes are in jeopardy. Gascon's rapidly unearthed Twitter takes are... not looking great. Though do we really want to live in a world where Ariana Grande is an Oscar winner because this controversy boosted her into the lead?

[knives]

Good thing Grande isn’t nominated in the same category.

[domino harvey]

I meant Saldana missing as a result of overall malaise around EP. Obv this is unlikely, just spelling out the consequences…

[MV88]

I think there's a real chance that we see a different movie win the top prize at each of the remaining televised precursor award shows. For instance, Anora at Critics' Choice, The Brutalist at DGA, Wicked at SAG, Emilia Perez at PGA, and Conclave at BAFTA. I'm not saying that's necessarily likely, but it's certainly possible, and I'm kind of hoping it does happen just to make this the most unpredictable Best Picture race in forever.

Really, though, I keep having this sinking feeling that Wicked is going to win at both PGA and SAG, and while that wouldn't automatically translate to a Best Picture win at the Oscars, it'll be more than enough to position it as a major contender, if not even the frontrunner depending on what happens at DGA and BAFTA. I could honestly see it winning as many as 5 Oscars (Picture, Supporting Actress, Costume Design, Production Design, Sound). Am I predicting it? No. I think it'll either be The Brutalist or Conclave. But I really do think a lot of people are underestimating Wicked's chances. I think it's more likely than Anora or A Complete Unknown, at the very least.