As stated previously, I plan on both giving my predictions on what will be nominated come January 24th, as well as films I personally wish to be nominated (shortlisted or not). I am also ranking the predictions in terms of their likeliness of actually winning, the top one being the most likely and the bottom the least. I await the fun that will come when the Academy does its thing and irritates us all
EDITED ON 1-22-23: Added some films and replaced an actor in the "What Should Be Nominated" section, shuffled and/or changed some rankings, but mostly minor grammar edits and punctuation
BEST PICTURE
01. Everything Everywhere All At Once (Daniel Kwan, Mike Larocca, Jonathan Wang, Daniel Scheinert)
02. The Fabelmans (Steven Spielberg, Tony Kushner, Kristie Macosko Krieger)
03. The Banshees of Inisherin (Graham Broadbant, Peter Czernin, Martin McDonagh)
04. Top Gun: Maverick (Jerry Bruckheimer, Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison)
05. Tár (Todd Field, Scott Lambert, Alexandra Milchan)
06. Avatar: The Way of Water (James Cameron, Jon Landau)
07. Elvis (Baz Luhrmann, Gail Berman, Catherine Martin, Patrick McCormick, Schuyler Weiss)
08. All Quiet On The Western Front (Daniel Marc Dreifuss, Malte Grunert)
09. RRR (D.V.V. Danayya)
10. Women Talking (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Frances McDormand)
What should be nominated: Nope (Jordan Peele, Ian Cooper), Aftersun (Adele Romanski, Amy Jackson, Barry Jenkins, Mark Ceryak), The Northman (Arnon Milchan, Lars Knudsen, Mark Huffum, Robert Eggers, Alexander Skarsgard), Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio (Guillermo del Toro, Lisa Henson, Gary Ungar, Alex Buckley, Corey Campodonico), Decision to Leave (Park Chan-wook)
BEST DIRECTOR
01. Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
02. Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
03. Todd Field (Tár)
04. S.S. Rajamouli (RRR)
05. Sarah Polley (Women Talking)
Who should be nominated: Jordan Peele (Nope), Robert Eggers (The Northman), Park Chan-wook (Decision to Leave)
BEST ACTRESS
01. Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
02. Cate Blanchett (Tár)
03. Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
04. Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
05. Ana De Armas (Blonde)
Who should be nominated: honestly, this year's Best Actress race has been uniformly excellent, but Tang Wei for Decision to Leave or Aubrey Plaza for Emily The Criminal would be awesome left-field choices
BEST ACTOR
01. Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
02. Austin Butler (Elvis)
03. Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
04. Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans)
05. Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
Who should be nominated: Paul Mescal (Aftersun), Daniel Kaluyya (Nope)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
01. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
02. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
03. Hong Chau (The Whale)
04. Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
05. Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
Who should be nominated: Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Keke Palmer (Nope), Nina Hoss (Tár)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
01. Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
02. Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
03. Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
04. Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
05. Tom Hanks (Elvis)
Who should be nominated: James Hong (Everything Everywhere All At Once), Anthony Hopkins (Armageddon Time), Brandon Perea (Nope)
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
01. The Banshees of Inisherin (written by Martin McDonagh)
02. The Fabelmans (written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner)
03. Everything Everywhere All At Once (written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)
04. Tár (written by Todd Field)
05. Aftersun (written by Charlotte Wells)
What should be nominated: Nope (written by Jordan Peele), The Northman (written by Sjón & Robert Eggers), Decision to Leave (written by Park Chan-wook & Seo-kyeong Jeung)
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
01. Women Talking (screenplay by Sarah Polley, based on novel by Miriam Toews)
02. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (written by Rian Johnson, based on characters created by Johnson)
03. Top Gun: Maverick (written by Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie, story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks, based on characters created by Jim Cash & Jack Epps, Jr.)
04. All Quiet On The Western Front (written by Edward Berger & Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell, based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque)
05. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio (screenplay by Guillermo del Toro and Patrick McHale, story by del Toro and Matthew Robbins, based on the novel by Carlo Collodi and illustrations by Gris Grimly)
What should be nominated: White Noise (written for the screen by Noah Baumbach, based on the novel by Don DeLilio), Bones and All (screenplay by David Kajganich, based on the novel by Camille DeAngelis)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
01. Top Gun: Maverick (Claudio Miranda, a.s.c.)
02. The Fabelmans (Janusz Kaminski)
03. Avatar: The Way of Water (Russell Carpenter, a.s.c.)
04. Tár (Florian Hoffmeister, b.s.c.)
05. Empire of Light (Roger Deakins, a.s.c., b.s.c.)
What should be nominated: Nope (Hoyte van Hoytema, a.s.c., f.s.f., n.s.c.), The Batman (Greig Fraser, a.s.c., a.c.s.), The Northman (Jarin Blaschke, a.s.c.), Athena (Matias Boucard), Decision to Leave (Kim Ji-yong) - in all fairness, though, it was a pretty good year for cinematography looking back
BEST EDITING
01. Top Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton)
02. Everything Everywhere All At Once (Paul Rogers)
03. Elvis (Jonathan Redmond, Matt Villa)
04. Avatar: The Way of Water (David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua, Stephen E. Rivkin)
05. Tár (Monika Willi)
What should be nominated: The Fabelmans (Michael Kahn, Sarah Bronsor), RRR (A. Sreekar Prasad)
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
01. All Quiet On The Western Front (Germany)
02. Decision to Leave (South Korea)
03. Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (Mexico)
04. EO (Poland)
05. Saint Omer (France)
What should be nominated: Holy Spider (Denmark), The Quiet Girl (Ireland), Return to Seoul (Cambodia)
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
01. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio (Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson)
02. Puss In Boots: The Last Wish (Joel Crawford, Mark Swift)
03. Marcel The Snail With Shoes On (Dean Feischer-Camp)
04. Turning Red (Domee Shi, Lindsay Collins)
05. Wendell & Wild (Henry Selick, Jordan Peele)
What should be nominated: Honestly, I'm fine with all these choices - it's basically del Toro's award at this point
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
01. Navalny (Daniel Roher)
02. All That Breathes (Shaunak Sen)
03. All The Beauty and The Bloodshed (Laura Poitras)
04. Descendent (Margaret Brown)
05. Moonage Daydream (Brett Morgan)
What should be nominated: I don't know - I haven't seen any of these films 8-[
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
01. Elvis (Catherine Martin)
02. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth E. Carter)
03. Everything Everywhere All At Once (Shirley Kurata)
04. Babylon (Mary Zophres)
05. The Fabelmans (Rick Carter)
What should be nominated: The Banshees of Inisherin (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
01. Elvis (Shane Thomas, Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, Louise Coulston)
02. The Whale (Adrian Morot, Judy Chin, Anne Marie Bradley)
03. The Batman (Naomi Dunne, Mike Marino, Zoe Tahir)
04. Everything Everywhere All At Once (Michelle Chung, Anissa Salazar)
05. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Joel Harlow)
What should be nominated: Crimes of the Future (Alexandra Anger, Evi Zafiropoulou)
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
01. Elvis (Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy)
02. Everything Everywhere All At Once (Jason Isvarday)
03. Babylon (Florencia Martin)
04. The Fabelmans (Rick Carter)
05. Avatar: The Way of Water (Dylan Cole, Ben Procter)
What should be nominated: The Northman (Craig Lathrop), The Batman (James Chinlund)
BEST SOUND
01. Top Gun: Maverick (Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor)
02. All Quiet On The Western Front (Lars Ginzel, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Viktor Prasil)
03. Avatar: The Way of Water (Gwen Whittle, Gary Summers, Mike Hedges, Chris Boyes, Tony Johnson, Julian Howarth)
04. The Batman (Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, Andy Nelson)
05. Moonage Daydream (Paul Massey, David Giammarco, John Warhurst, Nina Harstone)
What should be nominated: Nope (Johnnie Burn, Jose Antonio Garcia), Tár (Roland Winke, Stephen Griffiths, Deb Adair, Steve Single, Andy Shelley), The Northman (James Harrison, Steve Little, Paul Cotterell, Mark Taylor)
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
01. Avatar: The Way of Water (Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindom, Daniel Barrett)
02. Top Gun: Maverick (Ryan Tudhope, Scott R. Fisher, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson)
03. Nope (Guillaume Rocheron, Jeremy Robert, Sreejith Venugopalan, Scott R. Fisher)
04. The Batman (Don Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, Dominic Tuohy)
05. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, Hanzhi Tang, Dan Sudick)
What should be nominated: Everything Everywhere All At Once (Zak Stoltz, Ethan Feldbau, Benjamin Brewer, Jeff Desom), RRR (V Srinivas Mohan)
BEST SCORE
01. Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
02. The Fabelmans (John Williams)
03. Avatar: The Way of Water (Simon Franglen)
04. Women Talking (Hildur Guðnadottir)
05. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ludwig Goranssön)
What should be nominated: Everything Everywhere All At Once (Son Lux), The Batman (Michael Giacchino), Nope (Michael Abels)
BEST SONG
01. "Naatu Naatu" from RRR (M.M. Keeravani, Kala Bhairava, & Rahul Sipligunj)
02. "Lift Me Up" from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Rihanna, Tems, Ludwig Gorranssön, and Ryan Coogler)
03. "Hold My Hand" from Top Gun: Maverick (Lady Gaga & BloodPop)
04. "Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)" from Avatar: The Way of Water (The Weeknd, Simon Franglen, & Swedish House Mafia)
05. "Applause" from Tell It Like A Woman (Diane Warren)
What should be nominated: "New Body Rhumba" from White Noise (LCD Soundsystem) - though honestly, I'd want literally anything in place of whatever trite ballad Diane Warren wrote this year (no disrespect to her, just don't like these songs - they're the sonic equivalent of Oscar bait)
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
01. Le pupille (Alice Rohrwacher)
02. An Irish Goodbye (Tom Berkley, Ross White)
03. The Red Suitcase (Cyrus Neshvad)
04. Sideral (Carlos Segundo)
05. Warsha (Dania Bdeir)
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
01. The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and The Horse (Charlie Mackesy, Peter Baynton)
02. Save Ralph (Spencer Susser)
03. New Moon (Jérémie Balais, Raul Domingo, Jeffig Le Bars)
04. The Flying Sailor (Amanda Forbis, Wendy Tilby)
05. Ice Merchant (Joao Gonzalez)
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
01. The Flagmakers (Sharon Liese, Cynthia Wade)
02. As Far As They Can Run (Tanaz Eshaghian)
03. Nuisance Bear (Jack Weisman and Gabriela Osio Vanden)
04. 38 at the Garden (Frank Chi)
05. The Martha Mitchell Effect (Anne Alvergue)
