Awards Season 2020

[soundchaser]

I think Nomadland is the clear frontrunner for BP, but I'm predicting a year where everyone gets a taste. That may not be what we get, but we'll see.

I think it’s fun that I’ve got Chicago 7 being shut out entirely, and you’re predicting Best Picture! I thought for a while that it was a contender, but I just haven’t seen a ton of love for it recently outside of SAG and the Eddies (who have an awful hit rate anyway). Will be an interesting Sunday evening regardless — thanks for taking a potential hit in the name of making things exciting.

[therewillbeblus]

That’s nothing, did you see Peter Bradshaw’s predictions from today? Absolutely bonkers- in particular picking Fincher and Kirby upsets for director and actress!

[soundchaser]

That’s nothing, did you see Peter Bradshaw’s predictions from today? Absolutely bonkers- in particular picking Fincher and Kirby upsets for director and actress!

I love the absolute obliviousness of picking an upset no one is predicting and then putting the obvious, undisputed front runner in "Should Win." I have good news for you if you think Chloé Zhao should win Best Director, Peter...

[hearthesilence]

That’s nothing, did you see Peter Bradshaw’s predictions from today? Absolutely bonkers- in particular picking Fincher and Kirby upsets for director and actress!

I wouldn't make those bets, but to be fair, it's pretty boring when you pick the safe bets that do eventually win. I feel like in recent years the Oscars have gotten much more predictable, so it's probably more interesting to pick the upsets, even if there seems to be less of them. I'm not into gambling, but I imagine going to the track and placing bets only on the competitors with the best odds gets to be boring too.

[domino harvey]

In years of general "Whatever" vibe, the Oscar winner always goes to the perceived frontrunner. I'm not technically participating since I never saw DI's film, but c'mon, the only real question mark winner is Best Actress because there really is no frontrunner there. Everywhere else it's obviously Nomadland, Zhao, Boseman, Kaluuya, and Youn. Take any bet anyone offers that says otherwise.

[therewillbeblus]

Because BP is ranked, I think it's less secure, but still heavily favored to Nomadland. Sorkin's film is like Green Book-level Hollywoodized digestible, yet topically urgent, entertainment. I think it has a shot, and would take an odds-bet, while I wouldn't on the three acting categories or director.

[DarkImbecile]

Last day for predictions if anyone else wants to participate in this particularly stunted version of our annual game; domino, if you care enough to play, I'll accept your ballot (and just manipulate the tabulations on any list projects from here on out to make your top five picks into Also-Rans if you fail to pay up this time).

Anyway, I've seen fewer of the nominated films (and fewer films period) than any year since I was in middle school, so this is a particularly boring and unenthusiastic set of picks, save for the one big upset (I'm hoping an undercurrent of stronger than expected support for Sound of Metal carries the most deserving performance I've seen from the year past a Hopkins/Boseman split):

Best Picture
Nomadland

Best Director
Chloé Zhao

Best Actor
Riz Ahmed

Best Actress
Carey Mulligan

Best Supporting Actor
Daniel Kaluuya

Best Supporting Actress
Yuh-jung Youn

Best Animated Feature
Soul

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Father

Best Original Screenplay
Promising Young Woman

Best Original Song
Húsavik (My Hometown)

Best Original Score
Soul

Best Sound
Sound of Metal

Best Costume Design
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Animated Short
"If Anything Happens I Love You"

Best Live-Action Short
"Two Distant Strangers"

Best Cinematography
Nomadland

Best Documentary
Crip Camp

Best Documentary Short
"A Love Song for Latasha"

Best Editing
Sound of Metal

Best International Feature
Another Round

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Production Design
Mank

Best Visual Effects
Tenet

[soundchaser]

If you’re going to pick an upset in Best Actor, I think Ahmed is a good choice. The Independent Spirit Awards have given me a little pause on my Boseman pick, and Ahmed’s win there is definitely not a *bad* sign.

[therewillbeblus]

I don’t think he stands much of a chance, but I hope he wins

[Toland's Mitchell]

Prediction time...

Best Picture - Nomadland
Best Director - Chloe Zhao
Best Actor - Chadwick Boseman
Best Actress - Carey Mulligan
Best Supporting Actor - Daniel Kaluuya
Best Supporting Actress - Yuh-jung Youn
Best Original Screenplay - Promising Young Woman
Best Adapted Screenplay - Nomadland
Best International Film - Another Round
Best Animated Film - Soul
Best Documentary - Time
Best Original Score - Soul
Best Original Song - Speak Now, One Night in Miami
Best Costume Design - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Production Design - Mank
Best Sound - Sound of Metal
Best Cinematography - Nomadland
Best Film Editing - Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Makeup and Hairstyling - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Best Visual Effects - Tenet
Best Live Action Short - Two Distant Strangers
Best Animated Short - Opera
Best Documentary Short - A Love Song For Latasha

Hoping several of my predictions are wrong, including Best Actor. I'm also on Team Ahmed

[BigMack3000]

On the off-chance Minari were to win Best Picture, what was the last winner to have a single producer?

[soundchaser]

Thomas Langmann was the sole producer on The Artist.

[felipe]

Considering the possible scenario of Davis, Boseman, Kaluuya, and Youn winning, would this be the first time all acting winners are POC?

[Pavel]

Considering the possible scenario of Davis, Boseman, Kaluuya, and Youn winning, would this be the first time all acting winners are POC?

Yeah, I think so. I don't even think more than two POC have won in the acting categories in the same year (Denzel Washington and Halle Berry in 2002)

[domino harvey]

Davis and Ali won more recently in the same year not too long ago

EDIT and Malek, King, and Ali again made it 3/4 even more recently

[therewillbeblus]

Razzie Awards 'Winners' includes Giuliani winning two

[soundchaser]

Razzie Awards 'Winners' includes Giuliani winning two

Admittedly, I’ve never been a Razzies fan, but I can’t imagine being an adult who thinks it’s funny to give any kind of “Worst Actress” award, let alone one this high-profile, to an actual 19-year-old.

[therewillbeblus]

Yeah it's only amusing because of the My Pillow guy and Giuliani wins, clearly not even the awards take themselves seriously

[willoneill]

For the first time in my life, I saw every single nominee, though I only saw a fraction of what I usually see in theatre. COVID taking the blame on both accounts. On to the predictions:

Picture
Will win: Trial of the Chicago 7
Should win: Promising Young Woman

Director
Will win: Chloé Zhao (“Nomadland”)
Should win: Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”)

Actor
Will win: Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”)
Should win: well Daniel Kaluuya should be here, but since he's not, I'll stick with Hopkins

Actress
Will win: Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”)
Should win: Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”)

Supporting Actor
Will win: Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)
Should win: Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)

Supporting Actress
Will win: Yuh-jung Youn (“Minari”)
Should win: Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”)

Original Screenplay
Will win: Promising Young Woman
Should win: Promising Young Woman

Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Nomadland
Should win: The Father

Cinematography
Will win: Nomadland
Should win: Nomadland

Editing
Will win: The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should win: The Father

Production Design
Will win: The Father
Should win: Mank

Costume Design
Will win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Should win: Emma

Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Should win: Pinocchio
(side note - I haven't seen a Roberto Benigni film in 23 years and have now watched two in the last month, between Pinocchio and finishing off the Fellini filmography - anyway, I was shocked by how much I liked Pinocchio)

Visual Effects - I feel like this was the category most affected by COVID
Will win: Tenet
Should win: Tenet

Sound
Will win: Sound of Metal
Should win: Sound of Metal - as much as I hate the film, for this technical aspect, credit where credit is due

Score
Will win: Soul
Should win: Da 5 Bloods

Song - this shouldn't even be a category anymore
Will win: “Speak Now,” (“One Night in Miami”)
Should win: “Húsavík,” (“Eurovision Song Contest”)

International Film
Will win: Another Round
Should win: Quo Vadis, Aida?

Animated Film
Will win: Soul
Should win: Wolfwalkers

Animated Short
Will win: If Anything Happens I Love You
Should win: Opera

Documentary
Will win: My Octopus Teacher
Should win: Time

Documentary Short
Will win: Hunger Ward
Should win: A Love Song for Latasha

Live action Short
Will win: The Letter Room
Should win: The Letter Room

[therewillbeblus]

I'm genuinely surprised that everyone so far has picked Mulligan. Some predictors who have been talking to voters are saying she's not even within the two or three frontrunners in the category anymore. I hope to god that's wrong, and maybe folks are just gandering at the same goldderby stats that have been up there all season, but I'm getting superstitious around the overconfidence.

[Luke M]

Has anyone come across an Oscar ballot where I can enter selections online? Everything I've seen is printable and I don't have a printer at home.

[therewillbeblus]

Pretty sure you can do it on Goldderby if you make an account

[Luke M]

Pretty sure you can do it on Goldderby if you make an account

Thanks! I'll check them out.

[soundchaser]

Ceremony feels like it’s moving awfully quickly.

[therewillbeblus]

Hell yeah! That's one