The Future of Home Video

Discuss North American DVDs and Blu-rays or other DVD and Blu-ray-related topics.
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hearthesilence
Joined: Fri Mar 04, 2005 4:22 am
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#676 Post by hearthesilence » Sun May 30, 2021 10:27 pm

dwk wrote:
Sun May 30, 2021 7:18 pm
hearthesilence wrote:
Sun May 30, 2021 5:16 pm
I was hoping George Armitage's Miami Blues might get a UK Blu-ray release superior to Shout Factory's low-bitrate Blu-ray from 2015...Michael, if Amazon proves you wrong, I hope Indicator considers it!
Is that even an MGM title in the UK?

Either way, a Number of Shout's former MGM titles seem to have been licensed by other labels (Kino's announced Vincent Price titles, and according to my BFF the Kino Insider, someone has picked up the Pink Panther movies and the two Count Yorga movies,) and I think that Miami Blues is a big enough cult title that one of the other US labels might have picked it up.
The UK DVD was MGM.

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dwk
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2010 6:10 pm

Re: The Future of Home Video

#677 Post by dwk » Sun May 30, 2021 10:38 pm

hearthesilence wrote:
Sun May 30, 2021 10:27 pm
The UK DVD was MGM.
Ah, ok. Odd that a UK boutique never licensed it from MGM. Seems like it would have been a good fit for Arrow. (Although, of late, they have been losing the rights to a lot of their MGM titles.)

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Drucker
Your Future our Drucker
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#678 Post by Drucker » Sun Jan 02, 2022 8:32 pm

Inspired by the discussion in the KLSC thread, I wonder if the future of home video looks much brighter two years into the pandemic? Record collecting has become a big hobby for many music fans, and vinyl junkies like myself have surely noticed that records that used to cost under $10 and be abundant in dollar sections (Rumours, Joni Mitchell's Blue, Al Green's early albums) are now harder to come by and generally fetch a minimum of $30.

Surely this increase has been felt to a degree in home video as well, no? Anecdotally two of my friends that were movie-goers with me actually began to build a home video collection during the pandemic, one of whom actually has enough to have his very own kevyip these days. He admitted that once he made the jump from streaming to blu-ray he could notice the increase in detail and quality. So surely all of those pronouncements about the death of home video and how many copies a film like The Apartment would have to sell on a UHD are different now than in Jan 2020, right?

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Finch
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#679 Post by Finch » Sun Jan 02, 2022 8:40 pm

My husband and I were listening to the radio this afternoon and they had a discussion on that very topic of the boom of the vinyl market and how Adele's decision to offer 500k copies of her new album on vinyl has led to supply chain issues.

I have no anecdotes of my own to share but I'd definitely like to think that Covid gave the home video market a boost. Perhaps in a month or two, we might see some statistics and graphs on how DVDs/BDs and UHDs sold this past year?

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EddieLarkin
Joined: Sat Sep 08, 2012 10:25 am

Re: The Future of Home Video

#680 Post by EddieLarkin » Sun Jan 02, 2022 8:57 pm

I think time has proven that serious movie watching is an important enough hobby for a significant group of people that physical media will always be around. If we were going to give up discs for streaming it would have happened by now, and yet the Blu-ray market (and UHD being an extension of it) seems just as healthy now as it was 5 years ago.

Obviously it's never going to be a mainstream thing like it was 20 years ago, but if anything the market being focused onto a smaller but more savvy group of consumers has led to an astonishing improvement in overall quality, so that's a good thing if you ask me (even a major studio like Sony is now taking "nerdy" things seriously, like never failing to include original mono/dolby soundtracks, and in the Columbia Classics boxes they even have a nice bound booklet with film essays and very detailed restoration/tech info about the transfers).

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Saturnome
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#681 Post by Saturnome » Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:03 am

Even with something as digital as video games there's still a physical market, there are also indie labels curating releases of limited prints of various games, from months old games that everybody had the chance to download before to re-releases of decades old, obscure games, sometimes translated in english for the first time. Collecting is a thing, simply enough.
And just like vinyl, old games that were common to see in the dollar bin are worth way more since the pandemic. One game I own since childhood is worth 2500$ now, and slowly becoming my only hope of retiring one day

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tenia
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#682 Post by tenia » Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:32 am

It hasn't been felt, at all, in France on the home video market. From what I gathered so far, it seems like there has been a bump in physical sales in some countries for music (including CDs), but nothing similar happened for video. I suppose part of the explanation for music is that vinyl seem to catch up in a noticeable expensive fashion, really bringing back value inyo the market, while UHD simply isn't for the video market and Blu-ray has stopped doing so a long time ago. That's how you get articles titling "Vinyl oversell CD". Maybe, but not in volume anyway (far from it, IIRC).

The French physical video market collapsed in 2020 by 23% in volume and 27% in value vs 2019 (compared to the structural usual 10% drop), and 2021 doesn't look much better (it is better than the 20vs19 drop but will still have a drop in sales larger than usual).

It's been years since I'm noy buying anymore the Video will die theories, because it's clear there will still be at least many indie labels around, but the mass market physical video once was, however, is already gone, and has instead reverted back to the niche it was except during the DVD era. In France, the market has shrunk to about 20% of what it was in 2008.

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vsski
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#683 Post by vsski » Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:06 am

My prediction has always been that a collector’s market for BDs/UHDs will continue to exist and as others have said the boutique labels are doing a great job (and even some of the majors) of putting out high quality editions of movies.
At the same time I also feel that print runs are becoming smaller especially of releases with extras, with the UK having now gone the way of only offering booklets in first print editions across almost all labels and often reducing the typical first print to 2000 copies.
I would not be surprised though if we will be seeing price increases in the future similar to the vinyl collector’s market. While I don’t believe we will get to what it was in the laser disc days where Criterion was charging more than $100 for CAV edition, it is remarkable that for the last 25 years prices have barely changed.

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EddieLarkin
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#684 Post by EddieLarkin » Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:42 am

Image

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Finch
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#685 Post by Finch » Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:34 pm

Variety says the UK Home Entertainment Market grew by 13.3% in 2021
David Sidebottom, principal analyst for entertainment at Futuresource Consulting, said: “2021 has no doubt been one of the most challenging on record for the U.K. home video sector, but continued consumer thirst for transactional content in 2021 was evident despite a more limited slate. The sector remains incredibly robust heading into 2022, with transactional digital video sales set to bounce back, potentially to record levels, boosted by a plethora of new movie releases.”

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tenia
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#686 Post by tenia » Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:47 pm

Compared to 2020, sure. The French market is likely to have grown too, probably by about the same %, except that... basically brings it back to where it would have been without the pandemic, ie a 10% YtY decrease.

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Ribs
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#687 Post by Ribs » Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:55 pm

And it’s home entertainment, which includes streaming and VOD, not video, which remains in decline (though that remains at least somewhat in decline due to a lack of AAA blockbuster titles for much of the year that generally form the majority of broader video sales).

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MichaelB
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#688 Post by MichaelB » Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:07 pm

vsski wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:06 am
My prediction has always been that a collector’s market for BDs/UHDs will continue to exist and as others have said the boutique labels are doing a great job (and even some of the majors) of putting out high quality editions of movies.
At the same time I also feel that print runs are becoming smaller especially of releases with extras, with the UK having now gone the way of only offering booklets in first print editions across almost all labels and often reducing the typical first print to 2000 copies.
I would not be surprised though if we will be seeing price increases in the future similar to the vinyl collector’s market.
I think that's inevitable, because the gargantuan elephant in this particular living room revolves around the continuing operation of disc pressing plants. Small-run boutique-label orders alone won't be enough to keep them in business, so when the majors pull out en masse, they're going to have to significantly rethink how they operate - and if they don't shut down altogether the only viable alternative may well be to increase per-unit manufacturing costs.

(My financial plans post-2025 are predicated on the assumption that my physical-media career will be over by then. I hope I'm wrong, obviously, but I'd be foolish not to make contingency plans.)

Robert Chipeska
Joined: Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:53 pm

Re: The Future of Home Video

#689 Post by Robert Chipeska » Thu Jan 06, 2022 1:38 pm

MichaelB wrote:
Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:07 pm
(My financial plans post-2025 are predicated on the assumption that my physical-media career will be over by then. I hope I'm wrong, obviously, but I'd be foolish not to make contingency plans.)
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pistolwink
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#690 Post by pistolwink » Thu Mar 31, 2022 3:50 pm

I would think that a major issue is once the market for Blu-Rays declines enough it won't be worth many manufacturers' while to make Blu-Ray players.

There are already many fewer choices for standalone CD players than there were just a decade or so ago. I'd guess that soon the only ones you will be able to buy will be pretty high-end (though low-end boomboxes and all-in-one stereos w/ CD players will probably hang around for a while for the geriatric market).

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Finch
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#691 Post by Finch » Mon May 23, 2022 4:49 pm

Arrow's Kevin Lambert and Michael MacKenzie talk UHD and physical media's future on Youtube

(Sorry, I only now realised this is from 2021, but may still hold some interest!)

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Finch
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#692 Post by Finch » Tue Jul 26, 2022 6:10 pm

4k is frequently cited as almost certainly the last physical home video format. I am aware that the market keeps shrinking from the height of the DVD era and each format sells less than the preceding one. But I wonder, with vinyl having made a comeback whether physical home video releases will ever really truly go away, even when streaming advances to the point of presenting films at the same level as a UHD. Yes, the runs will be more limited and the discs will be more expensive still, but I can't imagine boutique label staff across the world being out of a job in 2032. If 8k TVs catch on, we'd surely see the cycle repeat itself with 8k home video discs.

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FrauBlucher
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#693 Post by FrauBlucher » Tue Jul 26, 2022 6:18 pm

Feltenstein tells a story on TheExtras podcast that I posted on the Warner Archive thread about how he bought a TV Show from a streaming service and it disappeared. He said he was never notified

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EddieLarkin
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#694 Post by EddieLarkin » Tue Jul 26, 2022 6:49 pm

Finch wrote:
Tue Jul 26, 2022 6:10 pm
4k is frequently cited as almost certainly the last physical home video format. I am aware that the market keeps shrinking from the height of the DVD era and each format sells less than the preceding one. But I wonder, with vinyl having made a comeback whether physical home video releases will ever really truly go away, even when streaming advances to the point of presenting films at the same level as a UHD. Yes, the runs will be more limited and the discs will be more expensive still, but I can't imagine boutique label staff across the world being out of a job in 2032. If 8k TVs catch on, we'd surely see the cycle repeat itself with 8k home video discs.
With the comparatively small support the studios have given to UHD, despite how well 4KTVs have caught on, I don't think there is any chance of an 8K format. 8K streaming sure, but not disc. But just because UHD will likely be the last home video format, that doesn't mean it has to have an end point, and nor does Blu-ray. I absolutely see things being much the same as now in 2032, especially in the boutique realm.

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Peacock
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#695 Post by Peacock » Tue Jul 26, 2022 7:37 pm

What value does 8K really hold unless on a cinema screen? And what approximate pixel resolution are low speed fine grain 35mm or super35mm film prints? Sure in the digital world we sometimes shoot with 12K cameras and I’m sure that’ll continue to increase, therefore modern films may look different when viewed at 8K or 12K etc… but again it comes down to screen size after a while… I know pixel count makes some difference - look at Retina displays as proof - but really will we see a difference in Citizen Kane on even a home 100 inch projection screen at 8K vs a UHD disk?

I agree I think there will always be a physical market though. MichaelB may be planning his escape route but do you think Criterion are planning to close doors in 2025 because enough is enough? Or that the license holders of La Belle Noiseuse will no longer want to make additional money by licensing it to a boutique label in the UK?

It’s business… if loyal collectors continue to buy then labels will continue to exist. If no one is selling Cannibal Holocaust in ten years time on disk - I’ll set up a home video company myself and make some quick money by licensing and releasing it to the next generation of die hard horror fans!

But yeah we have all seen that modern tv shows are often not getting blu-rays anymore. I guess because boutique labels can’t license them and the broadcasters have likely seen a massive drop in sales due to streaming so feel it’s not worth the time spent on releasing some of these. Which is sad… but doesn’t really affect the kinds of stuff this forum was primarily built around.
Last edited by Peacock on Tue Jul 26, 2022 9:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Finch
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#696 Post by Finch » Tue Jul 26, 2022 8:49 pm

Yeah, you'd think that even if the studios themselves weren't interested in putting out their catalogue titles anymore, they'd surely not turn down the revenue from licensing to boutique labels. That'd be my hope anyway! So here's hoping we'll still see UHD and BD releases 15, 20 years from now.

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MichaelB
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#697 Post by MichaelB » Wed Jul 27, 2022 2:12 am

Blind faith and crossed fingers are all very well, but the fact that none of the posts here since my last one even so much as mentions in passing the primary reason why physical media's days are numbered is pretty telling.

The inescapable fact is that blu-ray pressing plants rely on large bulk orders from huge international concerns to ensure their continued commercially viable operation - and when they dry up, that will most likely be that; small print runs from boutique labels are extremely unlikely to be able to make up the shortfall, at least not without consumer price increases that the market simply won't be prepared to tolerate.

I hope this day occurs well after 2025, but I'd be very pleasantly surprised if we got to 2032 without a game-changing upheaval along those lines. And I'm not about to spend every waking hour burning BD-Rs as a substitute (even assuming I can still buy blank media - that's been getting harder and harder to obtain in recent years, and I'm now having to make bulk orders from Japan).

Farley Flavors
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#698 Post by Farley Flavors » Wed Jul 27, 2022 5:41 am

Peacock wrote:
Tue Jul 26, 2022 7:37 pm
What value does 8K really hold unless on a cinema screen? And what approximate pixel resolution are low speed fine grain 35mm or super35mm film prints? Sure in the digital world we sometimes shoot with 12K cameras and I’m sure that’ll continue to increase, therefore modern films may look different when viewed at 8K or 12K etc… but again it comes down to screen size after a while… I know pixel count makes some difference - look at Retina displays as proof - but really will we see a difference in Citizen Kane on even a home 100 inch projection screen at 8K vs a UHD disk?
Indeed. Are there even any plans in the pipeline for 8K cinema projectors? I can't imagine there's much demand for it. This is an industry after all where 2K is still the norm and 4K is seen as a luxury product.

And if there's no 8K cinema coming any time soon, I can't see the studios going to the expense of 8K capture and DI solely to feed streaming services with product.

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The Curious Sofa
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#699 Post by The Curious Sofa » Wed Jul 27, 2022 7:06 am

From what I understand, affordable home cinema projectors aren't as adept at taking advantage of 4K due to limited brightness, contrast ratio and color gamut, as large TVs in a comparable price range are. The only thing which is superior, is the immersive size of the image, though in an average home I doubt even that will be large enough for the difference between 4K and 8K to be very noticeable.

Jonathan S
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Re: The Future of Home Video

#700 Post by Jonathan S » Wed Jul 27, 2022 8:48 am

FrauBlucher wrote:
Tue Jul 26, 2022 6:18 pm
Feltenstein tells a story on TheExtras podcast that I posted on the Warner Archive thread about how he bought a TV Show from a streaming service and it disappeared. He said he was never notified
I had to laugh at the irony of that, given the many dozens of Warner DVDs that have self-destructed in my collection, especially when Mr Feltenstein followed it with the assurance that "when you buy a physical product, it's yours forever." Warner grudgingly replaced two of them for me as a "one-time only favour".

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