The Future of Home Video

[senseabove]

Blind faith and crossed fingers are all very well, but the fact that none of the posts here since my last one even so much as mentions in passing the primary reason why physical media's days are numbered is pretty telling.

The inescapable fact is that blu-ray pressing plants rely on large bulk orders from huge international concerns to ensure their continued commercially viable operation - and when they dry up, that will most likely be that; small print runs from boutique labels are extremely unlikely to be able to make up the shortfall, at least not without consumer price increases that the market simply won't be prepared to tolerate.

I hope this day occurs well after 2025, but I'd be very pleasantly surprised if we got to 2032 without a game-changing upheaval along those lines. And I'm not about to spend every waking hour burning BD-Rs as a substitute (even assuming I can still buy blank media - that's been getting harder and harder to obtain in recent years, and I'm now having to make bulk orders from Japan).

Is disc production a set-up where the particulars are completely untenable for a smaller factory to spin up? This just made me think of how in the 90s and 00s, after the labels closed their own record pressing plants, an ever smaller number of indie pressing plants sufficed (largely on hand-me-down machinery from those label plants, from what I understand), and did so well into the vinyl revival. Only in the past few years, well over a decade into the vinyl revival, has anyone started opening new pressing plants and building new pressing machinery, and those are still independents—the "major labels" still haven't reopened their own, ergo Jack White's recent plea for them to do so and stop hogging all the indie plants.

[vsski]

Blind faith and crossed fingers are all very well, but the fact that none of the posts here since my last one even so much as mentions in passing the primary reason why physical media's days are numbered is pretty telling.

The inescapable fact is that blu-ray pressing plants rely on large bulk orders from huge international concerns to ensure their continued commercially viable operation - and when they dry up, that will most likely be that; small print runs from boutique labels are extremely unlikely to be able to make up the shortfall, at least not without consumer price increases that the market simply won't be prepared to tolerate.

I hope this day occurs well after 2025, but I'd be very pleasantly surprised if we got to 2032 without a game-changing upheaval along those lines. And I'm not about to spend every waking hour burning BD-Rs as a substitute (even assuming I can still buy blank media - that's been getting harder and harder to obtain in recent years, and I'm now having to make bulk orders from Japan).

Is disc production a set-up where the particulars are completely untenable for a smaller factory to spin up? This just made me think of how in the 90s and 00s, after the labels closed their own record pressing plants, an ever smaller number of indie pressing plants sufficed (largely on hand-me-down machinery from those label plants, from what I understand), and did so well into the vinyl revival. Only in the past few years, well over a decade into the vinyl revival, has anyone started opening new pressing plants and building new pressing machinery, and those are still independents—the "major labels" still haven't reopened their own, ergo Jack White's recent plea for them to do so and stop hogging all the indie plants.

I think Michael makes a very poignant statement.

A while ago I looked into pressing plants, although I focused on Vinyl not DVD. However many of them do press all types of discs.
There are about 100 vinyl pressing plants worldwide, but only about 10 with large capacity of approx. 10 million a year. On a side note Sony in Japan opened their old pressing plant again a few years ago, which is one of the 10 big ones.

If I make a crude extrapolation for a market like the UK BD market, there are primarily 8 boutique labels operating today (Arrow, Indicator, BFI, Criterion, Second Run, Second Sight, Eureka, Artifical Eye) and soon Radiance. I’m sure I’m forgetting one or two, but for arguments sake let’s say it’s 10 labels. On average if they continue with today’s output they publish about 3 titles a month (some more, some less) and we know that most first print runs are about 3000 (rough estimate, if anyone has better numbers please correct me).
So that means we are looking at a little of over 1 million discs pressed a year. That’s about 10 percent of what one of the big pressing plants can do a year.

Ok, that’s only the UK market, not globally, and maybe I’m underestimating the numbers, but I think it shows that Michael is correct the boutique labels alone can’t feed the pressing plants, so if the majors pull out, many of these plants will shut down.
Do some smaller pressing plants take over, maybe, but even if this happens, we can expect a clear price increase for discs similar to what we already see with vinyl.
And that will mean the market becomes more niche and caters to collectors with deeper pockets akin to the old laser disc market.

While I don’t know how long this all will take, I agree with Michael that this is just a matter of when not if.

[Quote Perf Unquote]

I would think the next few years would be a good time for these labels to cooperate and see what they can do as a group to take control of the means of production themselves. Obviously it's an up front cost but it may make more sense (and ensure their longevity) rather than desperately scrambling or giving up the ghost five years from now when the majors jump ship to digital only.

[therewillbeblus]

I've come around to thinking that UHD is a very cool format (to the point where -on my poor setup- it was extremely displeasing for me to switch from the Basic Instinct UHD to the accompanying SC blu-ray during the parts of the disc that were skipping due to ultrasensitive scratching), because the difference in quality was so noticeable... but the sustainability of this format also seems just way too vulnerable, again for those reasons. I've received many UHD discs at this point from various retailers (i.e. Amazon, who take any and all returns including those due to fingerprints/scratches and then repackage them and sell them as new, etc.) or direct as new copies, and encountered too many situations where -as boosters of the format have detailed- they are just so sensitive that I'm genuinely afraid of investing too deeply in this format. I don't know how long it will take for this fragility to catch up with investors in physical media, but I can't imagine that -if streaming platforms are going to release content in 4K, and then eventually 8K, etc.- people will continue to purchase discs that will risk durability under the conditions they're packaged in. It's alarming that so many UHDs are being packaged in cardboard sleeves with leaky glue, or on plastic with exterior artifacts that can scratch them, or within any difficult-to-remove packaging, as it's just a manufacturing disaster waiting to recall or replace discs for all the consumers who can't play them due to a minor print or scratch. I dunno, I like the way these look too much to stop now, and my ethos is too strongly held to physical media to abandon it, but it's been a frustrating experience so far, and I can't be the only one

[senseabove]

...even when streaming advances to the point of presenting films at the same level as a UHD.

...if streaming platforms are going to release content in 4K, and then eventually 8K, etc...

I think we're years, if not decades away from this, though, because a) the average US internet infrastructure just isn't able to consistently handle streams of a size that reach equivalency with BD, much less UHD, and b) the percentage of stream-watchers who actually care is miniscule. Excepting that a service like Bravia Core exists, which explicitly touts 4k UHD-equivalent streaming quality, I just don't see it becoming a priority any time soon for standard streamers, and movie rights are too complex for there ever to be a big umbrella "premium quality streaming" service for people that do care. Netflix and Prime tout 4k HDR now, but those are basically just bragging rights. Folks think "Oh, cool, 4k HDR!" and don't care or notice that the compression is shit because it's still just a 15GB file (if the backchannel 4k HDR rips of titles that have never had physical UHD releases are anything to go by).

[therewillbeblus]

Yeah all good points, though I also feel like 90%+ of people I know will take a recommendation from me, ask which streaming service it's on, and if it's not on what they have, they won't seek it out- even if they do have physical media players and own discs. There's a lack of motivation to care about watching what one wants when they want it, which is very important for me to have as a resource on hand (partially why I take up so much space in my living quarters with shelves and won't ever put my discs in storage; access in everything), but for most it's just that there's so much stuff on HD/4K-lite quality that they just pick one of the hundreds of movies that look interesting or that they haven't seen in a while. Your post is heartening, but I suppose to pivot a bit from my initial post, I'm not convinced that it'll matter because the drive to go through the "hassle" of not only faulty discs but acquiring discs in general (which involves patience) is regressing against the friction of having (almost, well maybe not, but seemingly) everything everywhere all at once

[FrauBlucher]

I agree with both senseabove and MichaelB. Streaming here in the US is still in the wild west period of it's growth, especially the infrastructure. Plus, do you have memberships for every service if you are a serious collector of film? What is the cost of that? Are there any guarantees that what you pay for will be there in perpetuity? But as MichaelB has said replication plants disappearing is a major concern for the companies that put out physical media. How many of these companies will just throw in the towel and how many will try to figure out a way to continue releasing discs? I'm sure Peter Becker is wrestling with this problem

[Walter Kurtz]

2021 MPAA Report for data nerds:

https://www.motionpictures.org/wp-conte ... -FINAL.pdf

[Feiereisel]

I've come around to thinking that UHD is a very cool format (to the point where -on my poor setup- it was extremely displeasing for me to switch from the Basic Instinct UHD to the accompanying SC blu-ray during the parts of the disc that were skipping due to ultrasensitive scratching), because the difference in quality was so noticeable... but the sustainability of this format also seems just way too vulnerable, again for those reasons. I've received many UHD discs at this point from various retailers (i.e. Amazon, who take any and all returns including those due to fingerprints/scratches and then repackage them and sell them as new, etc.) or direct as new copies, and encountered too many situations where -as boosters of the format have detailed- they are just so sensitive that I'm genuinely afraid of investing too deeply in this format. I don't know how long it will take for this fragility to catch up with investors in physical media, but I can't imagine that -if streaming platforms are going to release content in 4K, and then eventually 8K, etc.- people will continue to purchase discs that will risk durability under the conditions they're packaged in. It's alarming that so many UHDs are being packaged in cardboard sleeves with leaky glue, or on plastic with exterior artifacts that can scratch them, or within any difficult-to-remove packaging, as it's just a manufacturing disaster waiting to recall or replace discs for all the consumers who can't play them due to a minor print or scratch. I dunno, I like the way these look too much to stop now, and my ethos is too strongly held to physical media to abandon it, but it's been a frustrating experience so far, and I can't be the only one

These sentiments, particularly the bolded portion at the end, echo my own--rest assured that you are not the only one who feels this way. The run of authoring mistakes, player-related playback glitches, manufacturing errors, and just the general amount of figuring out UHDs seem to require has worn me a bit thin. Needing to inspect and play-test new UHDs has been sapping my enjoyment of the format, even though I am routinely impressed with what I watch. And that's leaving aside the other UHD-related idiosyncrasies that are part and parcel of the new-format learning curve, such as navigating the various HDR formats, figuring out which discs support Dolby Vision, and/or determining which discs have been quietly reissued with it.

While I've only had to exchange a few discs and, despite my carping, by no means intend to stop supporting the format, the specter of ongoing consumer-end quality control is making what has always been an enjoyable hobby feel more akin to a chore. That shift in perspective has also left me with the stinging realization that even being able to take this stance toward the the format is extremely privileged position to be in at all. On some level, I suspect I've always been aware of that, but never so keenly--something that likely says more about me than the state of the home-video industry.

So, UHD remains reassuringly enjoyable for the time being, and seeing more and more labels wade into the format has been really heartening, even if their process has been inelegant or less than ideal. I remain hopeful that these are just teething issues that will be resolved or at least lessened in time, but your point about the cost of these errors "catching up" to the format and its supporters is worth centering in our ongoing discussion of the format, especially given the general sentiment about the recessive state of physical media. Thanks for the post!

[therewillbeblus]

Thanks for your response, Feiereisel. There's definitely a realization of privilege in all of this for me as well, but I'm finding myself putting in a lot of effort to stay present and not spiral at the thought of all my investments in this format being fruitless if the discs won't play, or will get scratched after one play and not play later, etc., which has reignited a financial insecurity I've spent a lot of energy working through in my life. I've reached a point where I'm trying to hold back on upgrading discs I'd like to see in the format since the blu-rays are more durable and I can trust their replay value. I'm glad I'm not 'cursed' but it really blows my mind how many people here and elsewhere seem to be impulsively upgrading every film they own for the best without considering that the new disc may not be trusted in longevity, which is a huge pull of physical media for me. I want to be able to pull what I want to watch off my shelf and put it in and be able to trust that it'll play- otherwise, what's the point

[vsski]

I have to say that I find the reported UHD problems worrisome for a new format. While all new formats have growing pains we are in the third decade of disc related home video releases and as the numbers here and elsewhere indicate, consumers are turning away from physical media in droves (-20% decline according to the statistics above).
The jump from VHS to DVD was huge not just in terms of AV quality. The jump to BD was significant but that already left the average consumer cold and catered more to aficionados and those who had the setups to show the format’s advantages. UHD requires even deeper pockets and the format advantages are not as glaringly obvious. Also, even the aficionados are questioning if it’s worth to buy the third or fourth version of their favorite movies.

So when you combine all these trends one would think that by far the best strategy on part of the labels would be to put out the absolute best quality possible avoiding glitches and bad press as much as possible and rather withhold a release than to create negative press. And yet the opposite seems to happen.
So either labels don’t care as much as I think they should and are trying to make a quick buck for as long as possible or the level of incompetence and/or lack of QA is indeed so significant that it will contribute to their undoing.

I’m firmly convinced that owning physical media will become a niche market akin to the old laser disc days and if the current trend continues it will only hasten that progression.

I personally just invested in a very expensive home cinema set up with projector, large screen and dedicated room only to find myself in the position that many UHDs provide their best quality only through Dolby Vision something I can’t take advantage off. And while I’m an avid collector with fortunately deep pockets, my UHD purchases have been paltry in comparison to how I dove into DVD and then BD and I don’t see that changing any time soon.

[Rayon Vert]

Thanks for chronicling your unfortunate experiences with upgrading to UHD, twbb, with which I sympathize. It's making me that much more convinced to stick with BD as the "final upgrade" for my own collecting.

[therewillbeblus]

I don’t want to paint an entirely negative portrait of it. Feiereisel outlined everything much better, but it’s remarkable how drastically the PQ has improved even on my limited, barely-HDR-equipped TV. I was anti-blu for a while but then I couldn’t unsee the upgrade and now (fortunately, or unfortunately?) I’m experiencing something similar with UHD, depending on the film. The Shining, Basic Instinct, Dune, etc. all look great, and finally getting a film like The Birds looking fantastic is a long-tern dream come true. I just wish companies gave a shit about packaging delicate and expensive discs in sturdy, non-goop-infested containers, that’s all

[swo17]

I've been fortunate enough not to experience the same problems as twbb (I did buy the Hitchcocks individually) and the Arrow 4Ks needing replacement discs had the same issues on the Blu-ray so I can't blame it on the format

[therewillbeblus]

It’s cool that we have that option with the Hitches (and, for the record, I had zero issues with the first four-film Hitchcock UHD set) but I don’t expect stuff like the Back to the Future set to get released any other way, and at this point I’m watching “unpacking” YT vids to ensure these sets are safe to buy (thank god The Godfather 4K set is done right)

[TMDaines]

Thanks for chronicling your unfortunate experiences with upgrading to UHD, twbb, with which I sympathize. It's making me that much more convinced to stick with BD as the "final upgrade" for my own collecting.

The lack of PC support for UHD and the cost of 4K projectors means I am very unlikely to make the switch. I have a 4K 60+" TV, but I am very happy watching films in 1080p on a 92" projection screen. I'll stream TV in 4k and HDR where available, but right now projecting 4K and being able to actually just watch UHDs is more effort and cost than it is worth.

[Drucker]

The latest cinema projector isn't a projector at all
Notes from my first experience watching a movie via Samsung Onyx, the "LED Wall" that displays movies instead of a projector at Amazon's Culver City movie theater.

[hearthesilence]

The comments on 2K vs 4K are interesting. It's a big reason why I'll probably hold on to my HD TV as well - I almost wish I kept my old CRT TV for the same reason, but I think matching the display to the resolution of the format is pretty key for optimal quality. Some DVDs upscale well to my HD monitor while a few look really crummy, but they all looked good on my long-disposed CRT TV. On a 4K set, they all look bad.

[Jonathan S]

Some DVDs upscale well to my HD monitor while a few look really crummy, but they all looked good on my long-disposed CRT TV. On a 4K set, they all look bad.

My experience is pretty much the opposite (against my expectations!) The vast majority of my professionally made DVDs look so good - upscaled from a cheap Blu-ray player - on my 4K 65" LG OLED that I'm much pickier now about what I bother to upgrade to Blu-ray. (I'm not saying they look as good as Blu-rays, just that the difference is often negligible to me, and sometimes - when I have "upgraded" - I've found myself reverting to the older DVD anyway for clearer audio.) It might be relevant that I don't use (or even own) a 4K player.

[bad future]

I can't say I can tell the difference between 1080p (or lower) resolution video on my 4k TV and the same content on a 1080p display, and maybe I just don't have an eye for it, but I'm curious what could account for the negative or positive experiences described. I thought the "upscaling" just consisted of multiplying each pixel, for example doubling horizontally and vertically for 1080p->2160p, so that each pixel is represented by a number of pixels taking up what would be the size of one pixel on a display of the same size at a resolution matching the content. (If that's not too confusingly worded for anyone to even tell if I have the right idea. )

Are some TV's just better or worse at this task -- e.g. they don't duplicate the pixels correctly or the way the pixels bleed into each other is more or less pleasing when it's four tiny pixels pretending to be one bigger one? Or is it that some TV's are actually trying to "intelligently" add detail that isn't there, and they can be better or worse at that?

[MichaelB]

I can't say I can tell the difference between 1080p (or lower) resolution video on my 4k TV and the same content on a 1080p display, and maybe I just don't have an eye for it, but I'm curious what could account for the negative or positive experiences described. I thought the "upscaling" just consisted of multiplying each pixel, for example doubling horizontally and vertically for 1080p->2160p, so that each pixel is represented by a number of pixels taking up what would be the size of one pixel on a display of the same size at a resolution matching the content. (If that's not too confusingly worded for anyone to even tell if I have the right idea. )

Are some TV's just better or worse at this task -- e.g. they don't duplicate the pixels correctly or the way the pixels bleed into each other is more or less pleasing when it's four tiny pixels pretending to be one bigger one? Or is it that some TV's are actually trying to "intelligently" add detail that isn't there, and they can be better or worse at that?

No, you're on exactly the right track. Essentially, what takes up one pixel in a 1080p display will take up four on a 4K display, but because this is (or should be) an exact match you're effectively still watching a 1080p picture. So it should look exactly the same, barring any differences in the settings of the two monitors.

[rrenault]

This seemed like the most appropriate thread to ask this question, but why are some people so opposed to peaceful co-existence of physical media and digital distribution, whether that entails streaming on the Criterion Channel or digitally purchasing films via Apple TV/iTunes just to name two examples? I've run into cinephiles, not necessarily on this site, who act like one is "letting the team down" by exploring Agnes Varda's filmography on the Channel first before taking the plunge and splurging on the Criterion box (buying those massive director sets from Criterion is a commitment to say the least, and I'll admit to having a preference for standalone releases, although I did pull the trigger on the Fellini set). I don't understand why it needs to be all or nothing. Personally, I generally reserve physical purchases for my absolute favorite films, emphasis on generally...

[FrauBlucher]

It really is a useless debate by those taking sides. It's the reality and it's not going anywhere. They both have their positives. Owning physical media creates personal libraires and that's a wonderful feeling of possession. And being able to stream allows one not to have to buy without first sampling the films or not have to worry about collecting at all.

I have friends that are amazed I have a bluray collection. Ha.

[rrenault]

Very true. Just as an example, $5 for each of Lawrence of Arabia and Wolf of Wall Street in 4K on Apple TV struck me as a no brainer considering the former is impossible to get on 4K disc and the latter doesn’t have a reference quality physical release.

[Drucker]

There's a James White interview from back in the day where he mentions some of his favorite movie watching experiences were VHS's from back in his day as a video clerk. Streaming can surely co-exist with other moviegoing methods, and is not inherently bad. But I do think that most of the companies that have led the streaming revolution do have ulterior motives. They aren't looking to ensure their libraries are permanently accessible. They don't do a good job curating. And they want the content on the streaming platform to be the only way to see it. Just this summer, the Museum of Moving Image in New York had to cancel a 70MM screening of the original Top Gun because Paramount wanted to force viewers to its platform to watch the movie.

Streaming, like downloading, can be a great way to explore film. But I'm sure we all can agree we don't want the home video, repertory, and greater film industry to go the way the music industry has gone.