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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Sat Nov 24, 2012 5:47 pm 
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I've decided that it's time for the semi-annual "Jesus Jeff It's Only November And You Haven't Seen Several Of These Yet And The Precursors Are Still A Week Or More Away And Nobody Cares About This Shit Anyway" predictions.

BEST PICTURE
Argo
Amour
Flight
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Les Misérables
Silver Linings Playbook
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty

BEST DIRECTOR
Ben Affleck - Argo
Katherine Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper - Les Misérables
David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln

BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
John Hawkes - The Sessions
Hugh Jackman - Les Misérables
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
Denzel Washington - Flight

BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain - Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert De Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio - Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Matthew McConaughey - Magic Mike

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams - The Master
Samantha Barks - Les Misérables
Sally Field - Lincoln
Anne Hathaway - Les Misérables
Helen Hunt - The Sessions

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Paul Thomas Anderson - The Master
Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola - Moonrise Kingdom
Mark Boal - Zero Dark Thirty
Michael Haneke - Amour
Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Tony Kushner - Lincoln
David Magee - Life of Pi
William Nicholson - Les Misérables
David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook
Chris Terrio - Argo

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Danny Cohen - Les Misérables
Roger Deakins - Skyfall
Janusz Kaminski - Lincoln
Mihai Malaimare Jr. - The Master
Robert Richardson - Django Unchained

I figure Les Mis and Lincoln will duke it out for the most nominations and will split picture/director. I'm probably underestimating the impact of Life of Pi (maybe director, cinematography) and Anna Karenina (maybe actress, cinematography) because I disliked them so much. I may also be overzealous about Wes Anderson's chances of overtaking the other Anderson in the original screenplay category due to my own extreme fondness for Moonrise Kingdom.

Zero Dark Thirty starts screening tomorrow, and Django and The Hobbit late next week. Everything will be more clear then.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Sat Nov 24, 2012 5:48 pm 
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No way Amour gets nominated if its the film I think it is (Haneke?).


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Sat Nov 24, 2012 6:00 pm 
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knives wrote:
No way Amour gets nominated if its the film I think it is (Haneke?).

Yes, the Haneke. I'd guess that it would probably be the ninth or tenth slot. It is getting released in New York and L.A. mid-December with a full rollout through January and a strong awards push by Sony. It has Palme d'Or afterglow, and will be the favorite for Best Foreign Language Film. I think Riva is looking like a sure bet for a nomination in a relatively weak year for actresses, and Trintignant has a shot at a nomination too, though his category is far more crowded. If they get enough attention, it could carry over to a Best Picture nomination.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 5:36 am 
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What are the odds that Chris Tucker gets nominated, then wins, for his Supporting Actor role in Silver Linings Playbook and we all have to cope with the hype around "Academy Award® Winner Chris Tucker" for the next few years?


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 9:55 am 
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The odds are zero. He's a nice little supporting character in the film but doesn't really do any big league acting to speak of.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 1:50 pm 
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Neither did Gooding.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 2:05 pm 
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Not sure what one has to do with the other aside from being African-American, but Tucker's role is far less substantial than Gooding's was in Jerry Maguire.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 2:17 pm 
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In this imaginary scenario where Tucker wins than they'd both be winning for small comic relief roles. That said I don't think Tucker has that huge cultural 'show me the money' moment.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 5:28 pm 
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If you remember Cuba Gooding's role in Jerry Maguire only as "small comic relief," you should probably watch it again. It's a lot more than "show me the money."


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 6:09 pm 
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I recognize that it is way more than show me the money, but as far as the performance is concerned I don't think he really rose above how Mfunk described Tucker. The scripting is great, but the performance is adequate (I thought his wife character seemed more substantive for instance due to the relative strengths of the performances).


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 6:30 pm 
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How did I describe Tucker? He's in the movie for around 5 minutes, is warm and slightly off kilter, and has no influence on the plot of the film or its emotional arc. There are (at least) three more substantial male supporting roles in the film than his.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 6:33 pm 
Dot Com Dom
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The Supporting Actor category is THE competitive category this year. De Niro will be lucky to make it, much less Tucker


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 6:35 pm 
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I'm not sure what dog Knives has in this fight, exactly. He's not even a dark horse for a nomination...


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 6:36 pm 
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mfunk9786 wrote:
How did I describe Tucker? He's in the movie for around 5 minutes, is warm and slightly off kilter, and has no influence on the plot of the film or its emotional arc. There are (at least) three more substantial male supporting roles in the film than his.

I thought this line sounded like something equivalent to Gooding and did not know that he was in the film for all of five minutes and considering Colin's concern I assumed there was some talk making him viable.
Quote:
He's a nice little supporting character in the film but doesn't really do any big league acting to speak of.

For the record I have no dog.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 6:37 pm 
Dot Com Dom
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Christopher Plummer had a dog and won last year!


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 6:41 pm 
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Tucker is not on Kris Tapley's 'short list' of the top 29 Supporting Actor contenders


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 6:44 pm 
Dot Com Dom
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Dwight Henry's way more likely than 7-19


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 6:48 pm 
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I think we can throw out McKellan though as he's started complaining though about things I wish more actors would complain about.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 5:52 am 

Joined: Tue Jun 07, 2005 10:42 pm
Not sure but I don't think the Academy would give a third win to DDL, as awesome as he usually is. Also not sure if Spielberg would win for this particular movie. Its good Spielberg, but not great. I think the frontrunner to beat is actually Ben Affleck. He's got SO MUCH goodwill during his recent career turnaround and thats always a key in getting votes. He's made a terrific, audience pleasing film and one which the critics adore too.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 7:19 pm 
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Best Picture: I think they'll struggle to get 8 films with such a weak group and several hopefuls underwhelming their viewers, so I'm going with 7.

Argo
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Les Misérables
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Director: Basically think Affleck, Spielberg and Hooper are locks, with the final two spots going to two of the three between Lee, Bigelow and Russell. I'll go with the following:

Ben Affleck - Argo
Katherine Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper - Les Misérables
Ang Lee - Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg - Lincoln

I'm never good at predicting the other categories, but I will say that the following should be lock nominations if the "buzz" is to be trusted:

Life of Pi - Adapted Screenplay, Score, Cinematography
Lincoln - Adapted Screenplay, Actor (Day-Lewis), Supporting Actor (Jones)
Silver Linings Playbook - Adapted Screenplay, Actress (Lawrence), De Niro (Supporting Actor)
Skyfall - Cinematography
The Master - Actor (Phoenix), Supporting Actor (Hoffman)
Rust and Bone - Actress (Cotillard)
Les Misérables - Actor (Jackman), Supporting Actress (Hathaway)


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 7:21 pm 
Dot Com Dom
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The Master will probably get in for the same reason Tree of Life did last year-- fanatics for the film will put it at number one and thanks to the new preferential balloting, it'll make it. Same could happen for Moonrise Kingdom if the fanbase is still there.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 8:14 pm 
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domino harvey wrote:
The Master will probably get in for the same reason Tree of Life did last year-- fanatics for the film will put it at number one and thanks to the new preferential balloting, it'll make it. Same could happen for Moonrise Kingdom if the fanbase is still there.


I'd love for that to happen, for Moonrise Kingdom especially.

I just don't see the lingering "talk" for The Master like I did Tree of Life last year.


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 11:29 pm 
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captveg wrote:
I'd love for that to happen, for Moonrise Kingdom especially.

This can only help: Moonrise Kingdom wins top prize at Gotham Awards


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 6:47 pm 
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More good news for Moonrise Kingdom, as it looks to be leading the pack at the Independent Spirit Awards nominations. Especially pleased to see Bruce Willis making the supporting actor cut, as his was my favorite performance in the film. Nice to see the vastly underrated Bernie getting some love too. Silver Linings Playbook ended up tying Moonrise for the most nominations, even though there was supposedly some question about its eligibility.

2013 FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARD NOMINATIONS
Quote:
BEST FEATURE
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Bernie
Keep the Lights On
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook

BEST DIRECTOR
Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
Julia Loktev, The Loneliest Planet
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Ira Sachs, Keep the Lights On
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

BEST SCREENPLAY
Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
Zoe Kazan, Ruby Sparks
Martin McDonagh, Seven Psychopaths
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Ira Sachs, Keep the Lights On

BEST FIRST FEATURE (Award given to the director and producer)
Fill the Void
Gimme the Loot
Safety Not Guaranteed
Sound of My Voice
The Perks of Being a Wallflower

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Rama Burshtein, Fill the Void
Derek Connolly, Safety Not Guaranteed
Christopher Ford, Robot & Frank
Rashida Jones & Will McCormack, Celeste and Jesse Forever
Jonathan Lisecki, Gayby

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD
Breakfast with Curtis, WRITER/DIRECTOR/PRODUCER: Laura Colella
Middle of Nowhere, WRITER/DIRECTOR/PRODUCER: Ava DuVernay, PRODUCERS: Howard Barish, Paul Garnes,
Mosquita y Mari, WRITER/DIRECTOR: Aurora Guerrero, PRODUCER: Chad Burris
Starlet, WRITER/DIRECTOR: Sean Baker, PRODUCERS: Blake Ashman-Kipervaser, Kevin Chinoy, Patrick Cunningham, Chris Maybach, Francesca Silvestri
The Color Wheel, WRITER/DIRECTOR/PRODUCER: Alex Ross Perry, WRITER: Carlen Altman

BEST FEMALE LEAD
Linda Cardellini, Return
Emayatzy Corinealdi, Middle of Nowhere
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed

BEST MALE LEAD
Jack Black, Bernie
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Thure Lindhardt, Keep the Lights On
Matthew McConaughey, Killer Joe
Wendell Pierce, Four

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Rosemarie DeWitt, Your Sister’s Sister
Ann Dowd, Compliance
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Brit Marling, Sound of My Voice
Lorraine Toussaint, Middle of Nowhere

BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
David Oyelowo, Middle of Nowhere
Michael Péna, End of Watch
Sam Rockwell, Seven Psychopaths
Bruce Willis, Moonrise Kingdom

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Yoni Brook, Valley of Saints
Lol Crawley, Here
Ben Richardson, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Roman Vasyanov, End of Watch
Robert Yeoman, Moonrise Kingdom

BEST DOCUMENTARY (Award given to the director and producer)
How to Survive a Plague
DIRECTOR: David France
PRODUCERS: David France, Howard Gertler

Marina Abramoviæ: The Artist is Present
DIRECTOR: Matthew Akers
PRODUCERS: Maro Chermayeff, Jeff Dupre

The Central Park Five
DIRECTORS/PRODUCERS: Ken Burns, Sarah Burns, David McMahon

The Invisible War
DIRECTOR: Kirby Dick
PRODUCERS: Tanner King Barklow, Amy Ziering

The Waiting Room
DIRECTOR/PRODUCER: Peter Nicks
PRODUCERS: Linda Davis, William B. Hirsch

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM (Award given to the director)
Amour
Once Upon A Time in Anatolia
Rust And Bone
Sister
War Witch

16th ANNUAL PIAGET PRODUCERS AWARD – The 16th annual Piaget Producers
Award honors emerging producers who, despite highly limited resources
demonstrate the creativity, tenacity, and vision required to produce
quality, independent films. The award includes a $25,000 unrestricted
grant funded by Piaget.

Nobody Walks PRODUCER: Alicia Van Couvering
Prince Avalanche, PRODUCER: Derrick Tseng
Stones in the Sun, PRODUCER: Mynette Louie

19th ANNUAL SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD – The 19th annual Someone to Watch
Award recognizes a talented filmmaker of singular vision who has not yet
received appropriate recognition. The award includes a $25,000
unrestricted grant.

Pincus, DIRECTOR: David Fenster
Gimme the Loot, DIRECTOR: Adam Leon
Electrick Children, DIRECTOR: Rebecca Thomas

STELLA ARTOIS TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD – The 18th annual Truer Than
Fiction Award is presented to an emerging director of non-fiction features
who has not yet received significant recognition. The award includes a
$25,000 unrestricted grant.

Leviathan
DIRECTOR: Lucien Castaing-Taylor and Véréna Paravel
The Waiting Room, DIRECTOR: Peter Nicks
Only the Young, DIRECTOR: Jason Tippet & Elizabeth Mims

ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD – (Given to one film’s director, casting director, and
its ensemble cast)
Starlet, Director: Sean Baker


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 Post subject: Re: Awards Season 2012
PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 7:08 pm 
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Wonderful to see the Bruce Willis nom for Moonrise Kingdom.


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