Awards Season 2015

[Ribs]

Well, no, I don't think it matters if Mad Max is #2 under Big Short or Revenant or Spotlight; it's being #2 on the ballots for the films that have the least #1 votes that matters, as those drop out in order. So I imagine Bridge of Spies fans seem pretty likely to support something like Spotlight, and the same for Brooklyn; that's why I'm still imagining it to be Spotlight's race to lose.

The Martian supporters could well have Mad Max at #2 a lot but I'd imagine it'd be a fairly even split between that and Revenant.

[mfunk9786]

No better place to post my personal choices for 2015, I'm thinking (sans Best Picture since we have a top 10 thread) using some of the Oscar categories but not necessarily nominees as my template. The Mfunks? The Funkys?:

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Samuel L. Jackson, The Hateful Eight
Honorable Mention: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant; Michael B. Jordan, Creed

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Nina Hoss, Phoenix
Honorable Mention: Anne Dorval, Mommy; Elisabeth Moss, Queen of Earth

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Honorable Mention: Paul Dano, Love & Mercy; Sylvester Stallone, Creed

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jennifer Jason Leigh, Anomalisa
Honorable Mention: Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy; Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

CINEMATOGRAPHY
John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road
Honorable Mention: Ed Lachman, Carol; André Turpin, Mommy

DIRECTING
George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Honorable Mention: Christian Petzold, Phoenix; Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Charlie Kaufman, Anomalisa
Honorable Mention: Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer, Spotlight; Oren Moverman & Michael A. Lerner, Love & Mercy

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Honorable Mention: Noah Baumbach & Greta Gerwig, Mistress America; Alex Ross Perry, Queen of Earth

MOST PLEASANT SURPRISE aka DIDN'T EXPECT TO LIKE THIS SO MUCH
Love & Mercy
Honorable Mention: Brooklyn; The Walk

MOST UNPLEASANT SURPRISE aka BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT
Jurassic World
Honorable Mention: The Revenant; Sicario

[aox]

I only saw approximately 50 films this year, but somehow missed Mommy. Hadn't even heard of it until your post MFunk. Will seek it out.

[mfunk9786]

Please do! I think it opened in one theater for 6 days in Chinatown in LA in late December 2014 for a desperate grab at Oscar eligibility by the inept Roadside Attractions, but it didn't get what even qualifies as a limited US release until early 2015. I don't know that a ton of users here have seen it, and the reaction has been mixed among critics and users whose opinions I respect, but I've been in love with it since seeing it in Montreal in September 2014 upon its Canadian release knowing absolutely nothing going in, and having seen it 3 or 4 times since, that feeling has only strengthened.

[Luke M]

List of SAG Winners

It's looking more and more like Vikander is going to steal Mara's Oscar.

[thirtyframesasecond]

I'll be honest, I've only taken a passing look at the award winners so far preceding the Oscars, but The Big Short seems joint favourite to win Best Picture now? Came out of nowhere. Is it really being hyped up as a potential winner?

[Ribs]

Spotlight winning SAG is a big deal - the actors make up the bulk of the Academy, after all. It could be irrelevant though when you consider that three of the five nominees for Ensemble are not even nominated for Best Picture, meaning it's hard to determine whether or not they'll still list Spotlight so prominently with a different set of nominees.

This does hurt the Big Short's momentum, a bit - it's very unlikely to win the DGAs, so basically it has nowhere to possibly gain more traction.

[movielocke]

It's a split three way race, big short picked up ace over the weekend, and revenent is likely to take the dga, might be the most competitive / unpredictable race I can remember

[Ribs]

No, Big Short won best editing in a comedy at the ACE, which means nothing as the other nominees were Me & Earl & The Dying Girl, Joy, Ant-Man, and Trainwreck. It was the only thing that could win.

[hearthesilence]

Spotlight had the advantage of being an ensemble piece though. So it's tough to say if it's a sign of things to come (like Crash, which became the favorite after its SAG win and the eventual Best Picture winner) or if it just had an edge in this particular award because it's geared toward ensemble casts (like with The Help which won the same award but did not win Best Picture, nor was it ever the leading favorite, at least among oddsmakers).

[movielocke]

Spotlight is in good position to pick up a lot of down ballot votes as instant runoff eliminates other films, but so are revenant and big short.

[criterion10]

The SAG Ensemble Award really isn't as big of a deal as most people seem to believe, with regards to Best Picture. (Remember when Inglourious Basterds won over The Hurt Locker or American Hustle over 12 Years a Slave -- look how those turned out!) Though when it comes to the individual acting categories, consider DiCaprio, Larson, and Vikander locked at this point.

At the end of the day, the two most significant guilds for determining the Best Picture are the PGA and the DGA. If McKay wins the DGA next weekend, consider The Big Short locked. If it goes to anyone else, well, then we'll finally have an interesting race.

[domino harvey]

Finally?

[hearthesilence]

If it goes to anyone else, well, then we'll finally have an interesting race.

If I was gambling man, yes. But I couldn't be less excited about who would/should be the winner among the nominees.

[criterion10]

Finally?

Every Oscar season seems to only become more and more predictable. This year has the potential to throw some curve balls.

If I was gambling man, yes. But I couldn't be less excited about who would/should be the winner among the nominees.

Well, (minus The Revenant) I couldn't be less excited about the actual nominees myself, but I am a gambling man, hence the interest.

[hearthesilence]

Just out of curiosity, does anyone here actually bet on the Oscars? By that, I mean put up some actual money?

[captveg]

I just can't see McKay winning the DGA or the Oscar over Miller or Inarritu. If that happens... Yikes!

[captveg]

Inarritu has won DGA.

Was hoping for Miller, but I'm OK with Inarritu winning.

And it makes the Oscars a total crap shoot this year for Best Picture between the big three.

As for the Directing Oscar, this certainly puts Inarritu in the driver's seat, but will they buckle at giving it to him in back to back years? 70 years since it's happened is a LONG time.

[Altair]

The DGA going to Inarritu assures it for him at the Oscars; the history of back-to-back wins doesn't seem to be impacting his momentum. It probably helps that The Revenant is a truly impressive, impressive piece of directing. It's still a three-way race for Best Picture (The Big Short, Spotlight, The Revenant); let's see how BAFTA goes.

[Ribs]

I remain unconvinced that Miller won't win; surely he and Scott split much of the same vote, which wouldn't happen at the Oscars? Without Scott there it's a totally different race to my mind,

[captveg]

I also think non-directors voting could be a factor at the Academy. But Inarritu is clearly the favorite at this point.

[domino harvey]

In a year of "Oscars So White," AGI winning adds another counter narrative, as does the historic back to back wins (the first time in most of our lifetimes) , and DiCaprio's Oscar, and the threepeat by the cinematographer: if the Oscars want to create a new story to remember this year, the Revenant is it. But I still say who knows anymore

[Luke M]

I don't think Iñárritu winning will be viewed as a counter to #OscarsSoWhite

[Ribs]

Yup, it being the fourth year in a row in the category would look bad in a way - it's like saying, okay, we'll give them this one, but none of the important prizes. It strikes of tokenism - we need to have a major category win for non-White people, so let's give it to director. Four years in a row.

[FrauBlucher]

Plus, that wouldn't satisfy the African American community.