Scientific? No. But, almost no one subscribes to Popper's solution to the demarcation problem (the problem of what separates good science from pseudoscience) anymore. According to Popper it's falsifiability. A hypothesis is falsifiable if there is some conceivable set of circumstances that could show implications of the theory to be false. Marxism and psychoanalysis both failed because they had the ad hoc claim of false consciousness to always fall back on (the same reason why he'd be opposed to certain strands of radical feminism today). The general theory of relativity is the classic case (Popper's too) of a falsifiable theory since it make all sort of predictions, including the famous experiments about the curving of light during solar eclipses. While falsifiability is undoubtedly a virtue of good science there are too many counterexamples: cases where there are unfalsifiable scientific theories and cases where pseudosciences are falsifiable. The lesson to draw from this particular debate, I think, is that there is no simple demarcation between good & bad science. It's a complex issue that requires many intricacies to work out.matrixschmatrix wrote:Is there a single school of historical thought that is scientific by Popper's standards?
As far as history goes, just think about the idea of a "scientific" approach to history. To put it bluntly, there's a reason why history is grouped with the social sciences--psychology, economics, sociology, etc.-- and not the sciences--chemistry, physics, biology, etc. It's because the discipline does not operate in a scientific manner. A friend of mine, wrote on this topic here. The methodologies are just not the same. Nor do I think that would any historian that I know tell you that she is a scientist or that her discipline is scientific. If you think that it is scientific, then please explain to me the methodology. How will you frame hypotheses (easy) and test them under controlled and public settings (much, much harder)? I'm not saying that it's impossible. Jared Diamond and his followers have tried to do it, but I'm highly skeptical of the results.
To return to a prior point of conversation, my old friend Google has come through again. I see that there is a lot on Marxist historical predictions online. I'll compile them later, but first I have to go put my son down for a nap. Then my wife and I are going to take him to see the new Pixar film.
Also, I want to make clear that I'm not trying to belittle Marx. Out of all of the so-called economic-philosophers (Smith, Hayek, Friedman, etc.) he's the one that had the most true things to say (though Smith probably isn't too far behind). But the claim that he's figured out the mechanism that drives all human history and allows him to make specific claims about the future? That is what I call bunk.